Throughout the season, fantasy football players have been warned away from chasing last week’s points and as we head into championship week, a reminder seems necessary. Football is a game of situational matchups and rarely are those matchups the same from week to week. Yet all too often, we see fantasy owners blinded by a big week of statistics which usually results in the benching of a quality player in favor of the hope of a repeat performance. If you want to lose your championship week, then, by all means, chase. But if winning is your goal, you’ll learn to avoid certain players this week.
How amazing was that game played last week by Bills wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie? After seeing just 11 targets over 12 games this entire season, McKenzie broke out for 11 catches for 125 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. Few people even thought about using him in their playoff matchups but those in the DFS community who had the foresight to recognize his path to a heavy workload, won a lot of money. If you didn’t see it coming, you become even more susceptible to chasing this week.
McKenzie’s target share saw a massive bump last week, simply because the Bills were without Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley. Both receivers landed on the reserve/COVID list late in the week which immediately pushed McKenzie up the depth chart and into Josh Allen’s line of sight. But as great of a game as it was, both Davis and Beasley have returned to practice and both are expected to resume their usual roles. Sorry, Isaiah, but it’s time to go back to the bench.
With the running back landscape in its usual turmoil, those in the championship looking for a second back or a flex play may be enticed into using Rex Burkhead, who torched the Chargers defense for 149 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries. Hindsight will tell us it was an easy call because the Chargers’ defense allows the most rushing yards per game, but this week’s matchup with the 49ers tells a much different story.
Not only was the run defense soft, but the Texans were also playing from ahead which afforded them the ability to go into a run-heavy scheme. The 49ers run defense ranks second in DVOA and they are allowing the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game. Burkhead may see some early touches but the path to carries is going to be blocked by a game flow that leads the Texans into a pass-heavy catch-up mode.
Be careful not to chase last week’s numbers. The road to success is found in this week’s studs, not yesterday’s. Avoid McKenzie and Burkhead and win instead with Ronald Jones and Kendrick Bourne. Their path to success is wide open.
Howard Bender is the VP of operations and head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on Twitter @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy football advice.
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