In the event you performed any every day contests in final week’s NFL divisional rounds, chances are high, when you had Gabriel Davis in your lineup, you nearly actually gained some cash. In the event you didn’t, then you definately probably didn’t win.
Look, Davis is not any scrub — he delivered some good Christmas items with big December manufacturing — however in no way was he a certain guess to crank out massive fantasy factors final week.
However that’s what he did — eight receptions for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns, good for 48.1 factors at FanDuel (half-PPR) and 52.1 at DraftKings (full PPR). You may’t count on that kind of manufacturing each week, and even usually. However what you'll be able to and will count on each week is a participant dramatically exceed his expectations. That is as straightforward to name as declaring one of many studs goes to go belly-up. We all know it's going to occur.
The query, as at all times, is: Which participant(s)?
In massive DFS tournaments, you must assume contrarian: What can I do that the majority others gained’t do? It's the way you separate your self from the pack. It would make it more durable to cross the payline (unpopular choices usually are much less more likely to have massive video games than extra dependable alternate options), however when you do guess proper, the payout could be a lot bigger.
For championship week, we lean towards the 49ers roster to search out this participant. They've the least explosive offense of the ultimate 4, thus San Francisco gamers probably shall be used much less usually — effectively, anybody apart from Deebo Samuel.
We see Elijah Mitchell is banged up, however trending towards enjoying, however he has gone three straight video games with 15.5 PPR factors or fewer, and coping with an ongoing knee downside doesn’t encourage confidence. His backup, Jeff Wilson Jr., has an ankle harm and hasn’t practiced. JaMycal Hasty is extra scatback and has topped 5 touches simply twice all season — with six in Week 7 and 9 in Week 2. And Trey Sermon hasn’t recorded a stat since Week 11.
So the place does that go away the working recreation the Niners depend on? They’re not going to make Samuel the full-time RB. We’ll gamble Mitchell performs and will get a lot of the work, however his effectiveness probably shall be restricted. Contemplating that, we count on slightly extra work for Hasty, however not sufficient to put money into him.
As a substitute, we’ll gamble on fullback Kyle Juszczyk. He doesn’t get the ball usually, and after we undertaking elevated use this week, we’re considering possibly 5-6 touches as a substitute of 2-3 — so not quite a bit. However we like how he will get used.
When the Niners get close to the aim line is when he will get used probably the most. Of his complete rushes this season, 37.5 % got here within the pink zone — second highest of the remaining groups behind Travis Kelce. In addition they throw to him extra usually than some other RB.
At $4,500 at FanDuel and $4,100 at DraftKings, basically all we'd like is a TD. We expect he has pretty much as good an opportunity this week as anytime. And the additional cap room will make it potential to get one other stud or two into our lineups.
Championship calls
Key picks it is best to contemplate for this weekend’s FanDuel and DraftKings contests:
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Patrick Mahomes QB, Chiefs, vs. Bengals (FanDuel $8,800/DraftKings $7,400)
In 10 profession playoff video games, he has averaged round 25 fantasy factors per contest — with only one full dud. It's price paying for that kind of dependability.
Brandon Aiyuk WR, 49ers, at Rams (FD $5,600/DK $5,000)
The one elite risk on the Niners’ offense is Deebo Samuel (apologies to George Kittle). Can’t think about the Rams don’t dedicate defensive recreation plan to stopping him, which ought to open up the sector for Aiyuk.
Byron Pringle WR, Chiefs, vs. Bengals (FD $5,700/DK $4,300)
In search of low-cost choices on the most effective offense nonetheless enjoying? Pringle averaged about three extra in PPR over the previous 5 video games than teammate Mecole Hardman.
Tee Higgins WR, Bengals, at Chiefs (FD $6,400/DK $5,700)
The Chiefs put the clamps on Stefon Diggs final week, however have been sorched by Gabriel Davis. If Ok.C. equally sells out to cease Ja’Marr Chase, we like Higgins’ probabilities for a giant day.
Tyler Higbee TE, Rams, vs. 49ers (FD $5,500/DK $3,700)
Van Jefferson is coping with a knee downside. That would open up just a few additional targets for Higbee. Or, for a deeper dive, maybe even WR Ben Skowronek.
Fantasy Madness Every day Dose
Every day fantasy lineup suggestion by Drew Loftis
Workforce DraftKings
Kind: Tourney
Wage: $50K
Payment: $12
Entries: 14.7K
High Prize: $15K
Tot. pot: $150K
QB: Patrick Mahomes=$7,400
RB: Kyle Juszczyk=$4,100
RB: Joe Mixon=$6,800
WR: Brandon Aiyuk=$5,000
WR: Tee Higgins=$5,700
WR: Byron Pringle=$4,300
TE: Tyler Higbee=$3,700
Flex: Cooper Kupp=$8,800
DEF: Rams=$3,200
For late roster adjustments, observe @NYPost_Loftis on Twitter
Season risked: $168.77
Season winnings: $15
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