The Nets had been dealt a critical blow final week when Kevin Durant went down with a knee harm in opposition to New Orleans. Durant can be “re-evaluated” in 4-6 weeks.
Although his postseason standing appears to be in no hazard, his MVP marketing campaign is. Previous to the harm, Durant — who's averaging 29.3 factors, 7.4 rebounds and 5.8 assists on 52.0 % taking pictures — was the second alternative on the board at +275 at DraftKings. However his harm knocked his worth right down to 13/1, and it’s Giannis Antetokounmpo who's second on the board now at +330. Most assume Stephen Curry, the three/2 betting favourite, now has a transparent path to win his third MVP, however this race is rather more open than that
Not solely has Durant’s harm shifted the panorama for the award, however Curry’s play has, as properly. Over the course of his previous 21 video games, Curry is taking pictures simply 38.2 % from the ground and 35 % from 3-point vary. If we take away his 2019-20 season, wherein he performed simply 5 video games, his efficient field-goal proportion could be the bottom it has been since his rookie 12 months, and his 38.4 % taking pictures from deep could be a profession low. How is that the résumé of a participant who has a 40 % probability to win MVP? It’s not, so our quest ought to now go additional down the board.
Ja Morant has been bandied about as a contender, and the market has been snatching up tickets on him. One store even has Morant as little as 8/1 to win the award which, to me, is lunacy. He’s 14/1 at BetMGM. The Grizzlies went 10-2 SU when Morant missed 12 video games with harm, and their web score when he's off the ground (5.9) is best than the possessions with him on the ground (2.6).
The title to really watch is Joel Embiid, who will be discovered round 13/1 at most retailers. Embiid has been an unstoppable power, placing up 30.6 factors and 10.3 rebounds per sport since Dec. 3. The 76ers are 14-7 SU through the span. Philadelphia is simply the sixth seed proper now, however simply two video games separated the 76ers and Nets, who're third, coming into Wednesday. Ought to Embiid preserve this stage of play and by some means get Philadelphia to a top-three seed with out Ben Simmons, he would have pretty much as good a case as any.
Warriors waning
The shortage of manufacturing from Curry coincides with a droop from Golden State that extends again to the tip of November. Since a loss to the Suns on Nov. 30, the Warriors are 14-10 SU and 10-14 ATS with a 2.0 web score in non-garbage time minutes. The once-dominant title contender has appeared downright common, and its offense has been the wrongdoer.
The staff’s taking pictures has all however disappeared. The Warriors rank third in frequency of 3-point makes an attempt however are hitting simply 35.2 % of these pictures, and their half-court offense is twenty second over the span. These struggles go hand-in-hand with Curry’s, and that shouldn't be a shock. This squad has all the time been reliant on Curry, and now that he has misplaced his contact the offense has completely no stream.
The absence of Draymond Inexperienced has not helped issues, both. Inexperienced can be out for the foreseeable future as a consequence of a calf harm that stems from a again situation. Inexperienced is thought for his defensive prowess, however his presence additionally helps on the offensive finish. With Inexperienced enjoying, the Warriors’ offensive score improves by 1.8 factors each 100 possessions, their efficient field-goal proportion jumps 2.4 % and their offensive effectivity in transition improves by 6.3 factors each 100 performs. Barring a sudden reversion to kind from Curry, this offense will proceed to battle, however the market has refused to budge, which suggests worth within the type of betting in opposition to this staff.
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