VSiN’s NFL professional provides his betting recommendation for Saturday’s divisional spherical video games.
49ers at Packers (-5.5, 47.5)
The priority about 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s thumb damage has morphed into main fear in regards to the sprained throwing shoulder he suffered in opposition to the Cowboys. The 49ers wound up tied for the league lead in yards per play in the course of the common season with the Buccaneers. They had been superior metrics darlings all season lengthy and a group that many individuals have a large amount of respect for within the betting group.
Garoppolo’s accidents haven't been met with an entire lot of optimism this week within the betting market. The 49ers are being fairly coy and Garoppolo hasn’t taken numerous follow reps, pushing this quantity out to Packers -6 earlier than it slipped again to -5.5.
Quite than take a look at the facet with all of these query marks, the Below is my favourite play on this recreation. The stats counsel that we should always see a shootout, however one quarterback is harm and in addition has to play within the frigid situations of Inexperienced Bay with a grip situation due to his thumb damage. Possibly that means a play on the Packers, however I additionally discover Inexperienced Bay to be overrated on offense.
The Packers did find yourself with 5.8 yards per play, but in addition completed seventh in share of drives ending with factors, regardless of being tied for the fewest turnovers within the NFL with 13. They took wonderful care of the soccer and may have capitalized extra typically. For a lot of the season, the Packers had been even larger laggards within the yards-per-play division. Different groups faltering round them truly pushed them up the leaderboard a bit.
Inexperienced Bay doesn't have a fast-paced, high-powered offense. It's a very methodical group that steadily strikes ahead, however takes time to take action. Think about being tied for the fewest turnovers, having Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and ending tenth in factors scored. Moreover, for the entire excessive marks and metrics for the 49ers offense, they had been thirteenth in factors scored.
Combine in some single-digit temperatures and below-zero wind chills and I believe you could have the makings of a lower-scoring recreation on Saturday. The 49ers completed within the top-five in yards per play on protection and Inexperienced Bay was a middle-of-the-pack unit, however will get a lift from an injured Garoppolo or an inexperienced Trey Lance.
Decide: Below 47.5.
Bengals at Titans (-3.5, 47.5)
By weighted DVOA at Soccer Outsiders, the Titans are far and away the worst of the eight remaining groups. It's affordable to say that Derrick Henry missed half the season and any group would undergo with out its greatest participant, however the Titans simply don’t match the mould of a No. 1 seed and don’t actually need to be favored by greater than a discipline objective.
There are many questions in regards to the Bengals, who simply ended a streak of greater than three a long time and not using a playoff win, however I stated from the beginning that Cincinnati is the highest-variance group within the playoffs. They might very properly have misplaced final week to the Raiders, however may beat any AFC group with Joe Burrow and an enhancing offense.
The Titans have some massive, signature wins and are going through the Bengals, who're the second-weakest group left by DVOA. I consider these two components have this line larger than it must be.
Decide: Bengals, +3.5.
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