In case you like your circumstances powerful and your fields eclectic, I’ve received some excellent news: It’s formally Honda Traditional week.
At simply 7,125 yards, the par-70 Champion Course at PGA Nationwide doesn’t sound too daunting, however it stands as one of many harder checks on the annual schedule.
There’s the Bear Lure, after all, that includes the devilish three-hole stretch from 15-17. There’s all the time wind, with early week forecasts suggesting gusts of almost 30 mph within the opening spherical and near that for the remaining three. After which there’s the water, which comes into play on almost each gap, leading to 270 balls that discovered a watery grave in final yr’s version of this occasion (down from 339 the earlier yr).
Throw ’em all collectively, and the result's a venue with the next diploma of issue than most others.
Simply 4 occasions within the 15 editions of this occasion, since shifting to PGA Nationwide in 2007, has the profitable rating reached double digits under-par. A kind of got here final yr courtesy of Matt Jones, who posted a 12-under complete, although nobody else was higher than 7-under.
Anticipate one other stringent check this week, which needs to be sufficient to maintain us entertained, even when the sector leaves one thing to be desired. After every week by which everything of the world’s top-10 competed, there are precisely zero top-10 gamers on the Honda Traditional and simply 5 of the highest 25: Louis Oosthuizen, Brooks Koepka, Joaquin Niemann, Daniel Berger and Billy Horschel.
With that in thoughts, there’s actually a point of rationale behind concentrating on sure gamers with longer odds this week.
Outright Winner
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (40/1): With a weaker subject, this looks like a great time to take an opportunity on an outright choice — and going with a participant who owns precisely one profession high 10 on the PGA Tour actually qualifies as taking an opportunity. Don’t get this truth confused, although, for a participant who might be in over his head for a victory. Bezuidenhout owns three finishes of seventeenth or higher over his previous seven stateside begins and already owns three profession wins on the DP World (Euro) Tour over the previous three years.
It’s not simply these wins that ought to give us hope, however how he received them.
In 2019, he posted weekend scores of simply 69-71 to win the Estrella Damm N.A. Andalucia Masters at 10-under, six strokes higher than anybody else. The subsequent yr, he posted a 14-under complete to win the Alfred Dunhill Championship by 4. And some weeks after that, he received the South African Open at 18-under, 5 higher than anybody else.
The purpose is that not solely has Bezuidenhout buried his fellow contenders in these wins, however he’s tended to do it on a number of events when scores weren’t too low, which would be the case once more this week.
He additionally owns some good historical past in Florida, with top-20 finishes on the Arnold Palmer Invitational every of the previous two years, and his metrics ought to match PGA Nationwide, as he ranks thirty fourth in strokes gained on method pictures and 53rd in scrambling this season.
This needs to be an ideal week to sprinkle outright performs amongst a number of of the non-favorites, and I like beginning the cardboard with potential worth on Bezuidenhout, who has what it takes to win at this stage.
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