Juventus has seen its Champions League event finish within the Spherical of 16 in every of the final three seasons regardless of being favorites in every.
As soon as once more, Juventus is a favourite to advance towards a workforce with a lot much less of a European pedigree. And primarily based on my projections, Juventus is as soon as once more a susceptible and overvalued favourite.
The Previous Woman opened as a favourite on the street within the first leg when the Champions League draw and contours have been launched in December, however that market has moved sharply towards Unai Emery and Villarreal.
Accidents have performed a job in that for Juventus, however a lot of the market motion has come out of respect for Villarreal, which has been arguably the very best workforce in all of Spain in the previous few months.
FiveThirtyEight tasks Villarreal as 61 p.c favorites (-156 implied) to advance to the quarterfinals. My very own projections make Villarreal a -110 favourite to advance (52 p.c) and but the Yellow Submarine is lined as +135 to advance and is barely a favourite at residence.
The betting market likes Juventus an entire lot greater than underlying metrics and my very own projections do, however Villarreal has the higher urgent numbers, owns the higher anticipated objective (xG) distinction in a more durable league, and bought via a way more tough Champions League group.
Particularly at residence within the first leg, Villarreal is totally undervalued.
The performs: Villarreal Draw No Wager (-135); Villarreal to advance (+140).
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