The Daytona 500 got here all the way down to an thrilling time beyond regulation end, with rookie Austin Cindric taking dwelling his first profession NASCAR Cup Sequence victory.
Sadly, the 40/1 prop wager I beneficial barely missed cashing as Chase Elliott beat Ty Dillon to the road Sunday for prime Chevy by a foot.
Nonetheless, we press on.
With the pomp and circumstance of Daytona now within the rearview mirror, the season-long grind begins this weekend at Auto Membership Speedway. The Fontana, Calif., observe is a 2-mile stretch recognized for prime tire put on. Drivers who can greatest handle their tires usually do properly.
Probably the most comparable observe to Auto Membership is Atlanta earlier than it was repaved this previous offseason. Others may like to incorporate Homestead and Darlington, as properly. Whereas they're helpful comparisons, they could be a bit deceptive as a result of sure drivers carry out fairly otherwise at Homestead and Darlington than they do at Atlanta and Auto Membership.
Books will usually lump these high-tire-wear tracks all collectively, leaving worth on the desk to wager sure drivers.
That’s precisely the place I’m on the lookout for my greatest outright wager of the week.
Ryan Blaney (12/1) to win
Blaney opened at 14/1 odds to win Sunday, however there’s nonetheless worth on this line.
Simply taking a look at common inexperienced flag pace, listed here are Blaney’s ranks at Auto Membership in comparison with his full-year rank:
2017: 10 vs. 13
2018: 8 vs. 11
2019: 4 vs. 10
2020: 2 vs. 5
In different phrases, Blaney is constantly higher at Auto Membership than he's at a median observe. Moreover, he’s improved yearly the collection has run at Auto Membership. Blaney can also be driving a Ford, which received the Busch Gentle Conflict, each Duels at Daytona and the Daytona 500.
My statistical mannequin provides Blaney a 9.0 % likelihood to win on Sunday. The 12/1 line interprets to a 7.7 % implied win likelihood.
DraftKings has essentially the most beneficiant line proper now with this 12/1 providing, however I don’t thoughts grabbing this at 11/1 on FanDuel as properly.
Christopher Bell (5/1) for a top-5 end
Bell didn’t precisely shine on the high-wear tracks final yr, however there are some good indicators for him.
First, his greatest end final yr on the excessive tire put on tracks got here on the second Atlanta race. He additionally received at Atlanta in each the Truck and Xfinity Sequence. Bell additionally grabbed a third-place outcome at Auto Membership in his ultimate Xfinity season.
Maybe most impressively, he scored two top-11 finishes, one every at Homestead and Darlington in his rookie season with the underfunded and now-defunct Leavine Household Racing.
That mentioned, my mannequin provides Bell a 27.8 % likelihood of hitting a prime 5. Whereas that may be a bit too beneficiant, he wants to realize a prime 5 solely 16.7 % of the time to be worthwhile.
So, even when my mannequin is overestimating his probabilities, it must be doing so by fairly a large margin to be mistaken.
I'd wager Bell to complete within the prime 5 as little as 4/1 odds.
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