Championship weekend is right here, not just for the 4 groups that shall be on the sector Sunday but additionally on your favourite Bettor’s Information prognosticator, who's making an attempt so as to add a playoff banner to the 2021 regular-season championship.
To this point within the playoffs, this area has had good however not nice success predicting these ultimate 4 squads. The ATS report is 2-0 in 49ers video games, 2-0 in Rams video games, 1-1 in Bengals video games and 0-2 in Chiefs video games. We’ll begin with that final one, as I attempt to determine whether or not I wish to let Patrick Mahomes hit me within the head with a hammer for the third week in a row.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7.5) over Cincinnati Bengals; Underneath 54.5
To elaborate on 0-2 unfold mark in these playoffs in Chiefs video games, the divisional-round decide of the Steelers +12.5 was silly. There was no practical state of affairs suggesting Pittsburgh might keep shut after shedding 36-10 in Kansas Metropolis simply three weeks earlier.
I’m nonetheless smarting from final week’s loss with Buffalo (because the Lock of the Week, no much less) at Arrowhead. I proceed to imagine I had the best aspect there. If in some way the Payments would have been granted an immediate rematch, I’d decide them once more over the Chiefs. Josh Allen’s fourth landing hookup with Gabriel Davis with 13 seconds to go ought to have been sufficient, proper?!
However it wasn’t … due to Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. These three names are the rationale most groups don’t have sufficient to beat the Chiefs.
The query right here isn’t whether or not Joe Burrow and the younger Bengals are going to have the ability to vanquish the Chiefs and proceed on their very own magic-carpet journey to Tremendous Bowl LVI. They’re most probably not, and BetMGM is providing +275 on the moneyline in the event you suppose I’m fallacious about that. Quite, we’re speaking concerning the unfold, and that’s a tougher query.
In final week’s column, I figured Burrow would have a tough time in his first street playoff sport, and that turned out to be the case. The Titans sacked him 9 — 9! — instances. They intercepted him as soon as and didn't permit a landing move. The Bengals couldn’t cease Titans WR A.J. Brown, who had 5 catches for 142 yards and a landing.
So why are the Bengals taking part in Sunday? You may thank Ryan Tannehill and his three horrendously timed interceptions — first play of the sport, first drive of the second half and final drive of the fourth quarter forward of Evan McPherson’s deciding subject purpose.
Is that this system for victory — and even staying shut — replicable for the Bengals on Sunday? I’d say no. The gang noise shall be even louder than Burrow heard in Tennessee. The Chiefs might not get 9 sacks, however they've loads of guys who can invade the pocket — together with Chris Jones, Frank Clark and Melvin Ingram. You may break a calculator making an attempt to determine what number of yards Hill, Kelce, Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle can rack up in opposition to the Cincinnati secondary.
And the Bengals can’t rely on getting bailed out by three interceptions this week, not when Mahomes has thrown only one decide in comparison with 23 landing passes at Arrowhead in his playoff profession.
I’m conscious of those two information: 1. The Bengals beat the Chiefs, 34-31, in Cincinnati on Jan. 2 to assist deny Kansas Metropolis the first-round bye. That’s a significant consequence. 2. The Chiefs typically fail to cowl once they win.
My response is that this sport is at completely different time, in a unique place, with stakes which can be a lot greater. And sure, the Chiefs for a couple of seasons have had the straight-up win/unfold loss sample, together with 4 instances in 2021, however they did have a string of six straight win/covers late within the season. They usually lined the unfold within the AFC Championship every of the previous two seasons — beating the Payments, 38-24, as three-point favorites final 12 months and the Titans, 35-24, as 7.5-point favorites the 12 months earlier than.
So I’m placing my belief in Mahomes and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to deliver this one dwelling over the quantity and below the overall.
Chiefs, 34-17.
San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) over LOS ANGELES RAMS; Underneath 45.5
One in every of my favourite handicapping angles is to attempt to keep away from groups taking part in of their third consecutive street sport. It’s one thing that is sensible, regardless that I don’t suppose I’ve ever seen the development exhibiting the ATS outcomes for such conditions.
Right here, we now have the 49ers taking part in a fourth street sport in a row. They beat the Rams, 27-24 (getting back from an early 17-0 deficit), at SoFi Stadium on Jan. 9 as three-point underdogs. Then they refueled the NFL meme machine with a 23-17 win at Dallas at +3 within the wild-card spherical, earlier than knocking off Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, 13-10, within the (redundant) frozen tundra at +5.5 within the divisional spherical.
The query of wear-and-tear is an actual one for the 49ers — as there are damage issues about QB Jimmy Garoppolo (thumb, shoulder), OT Trent Brown (ankle), RB Elijah Mitchell (knee) and others.
However there are two issues that may mitigate right here, and it’s that final week, the Rams needed to make the cross-country journey to and from Tampa. And the 49ers get pleasure from a little bit additional relaxation, having performed Saturday night time and the Rams on Sunday afternoon.
Wanting on the line, dwelling subject is mostly deemed to be between 2 and a couple of.5 factors within the NFL nowadays, down from the long-accepted 3. The Rams are laying an extra 1-1.5 factors right here primarily based on their perceived edge within the energy rankings. If you happen to disagree with that calculation, then there’s your worth in betting the underdog.
Each groups are available scorching, as groups usually do within the championship spherical. The 49ers are 9-2 SU and ATS of their final 11 video games and the Rams 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS of their final eight.
Most likely the most important clues come from the current sequence historical past. The 49ers have received the previous six conferences over three seasons, encompassing each the Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford eras. Kyle Shanahan at all times appears to be a step forward of Sean McVay. McVay is a wonderful coach, and a few day he’ll work out how you can flip the tide. If that day is Sunday, 49ers backers would nonetheless have a little bit of a buffer due to the unfold. Additionally, if this sport comes all the way down to a kick, San Francisco’s Robbie Gould has by no means missed one in postseason (20-for-20 subject objectives, 32-for-32 PATs).
49ers, 23-21.
Final week: 5-3 (sides 2-2, Over/Unders 3-1)
Lock of the week: Chiefs (Locks 11-8 in 2021-22).
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