There are some years when I've my Tremendous Bowl choose locked in about 5 minutes after the top of the second championship recreation. That was not the case for Sunday’s Tremendous Bowl LVI between the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. This one took the entire play clock.
It appeared for each “This!” there was a “What about that?”
However on the finish of the day (or two weeks), the solutions are Bengals +4 and Below 48.5. Right here’s why.
Let’s begin with the house subject. Enjoying at SoFi doesn’t determine to present the Rams fairly the sting the Buccaneers had in final 12 months’s Tremendous Bowl of their residence stadium in opposition to the Chiefs. The Rams are 7-3 straight up at residence this season, together with double-digit losses to the Cardinals and Titans. They're 5-5 in opposition to the unfold in these video games, and within the two in opposition to the 49ers, they shared the gang help virtually evenly, which was beautiful. Matthew Stafford had to make use of silent counts to fight the noise from the street crowd. If I’m making an attempt to get to the five-point edge I’d must guess the Rams, home-field benefit isn’t including a lot to the equation.
The most important sticking level I had in supporting the Bengals was the cross safety. The Rams’ protection was No. 7 within the NFL with 2.8 sacks per recreation and No. 11 in sack charge at 6.89 %. The Bengals ranked thirtieth in sacks allowed per recreation at 3.6 and have been thirty first in sack charge at 9.17 %. And that was simply the common season. Within the divisional spherical, Joe Burrow was sacked 9 instances by the Titans and lived to inform about it.
All you must do is suppose again to final 12 months and Bucs-Chiefs to recollect what can occur when a line of defense fully dominates the opposing offensive line. The good Patrick Mahomes ended up with three subject targets and much more exasperated gestures. May that occur right here? May Aaron Donald and his buddies make life so depressing for Burrow that he can by no means actually make the most of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd?
This hasn’t been a clean trip by the postseason for the Bengals. One or two performs might have eradicated them in every spherical. Within the wild- card recreation, the Raiders scored a landing simply as soon as in 5 red-zone journeys. Las Vegas had an opportunity to tie the sport on the finish earlier than Germaine Pratt intercepted Derek Carr on the 2 with 12 seconds to go.
The next week in Nashville, the Bengals’ protection countered the 9 sacks of Burrow with three interceptions of Ryan Tannehill, all at extremely opportune instances. Jessie Bates III’s choose on the primary play of the sport despatched a message. With the Bengals up 16-6 halfway by the third quarter, Mike Hilton held that margin with an interception on the Cincinnati 20. Then with 20 seconds to play, Logan Wilson made the choose that arrange Evan McPherson’s called-shot, game-winning subject purpose.
All of that was prelude to what occurred within the AFC Championship at Arrowhead Stadium. The Bengals fell behind 21-3 after 25 minutes, permitting landing passes from Mahomes to Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman. It was as if the Chiefs stars have been forming a landing conga line all the best way from Kansas Metropolis to Los Angeles. However then, Samaje Perine broke free and took a Burrow cross 41 yards for a landing, and the protection made an important cease on Hill to maintain the Chiefs off the board on the finish of the half (credit score the help to Andy Reid for a boneheaded name).
Nonetheless, there was an extended strategy to climb from 21-10 then 21-13 down. Certainly Mahomes, who to that time had 26 landing passes and one interception at residence in his postseason profession, wouldn't gift-wrap the sport for the Bengals the best way Tannehill did. Oh, actually? He threw one proper to B.J. Hill, the ex-Large, and 5 performs later the Bengals have been tied after a 2-yard cross to Chase and a two-point conversion cross to Trent Taylor.
Even shedding the additional time coin toss didn’t show to be a loss of life sentence, as Vonn Bell intercepted Mahomes on the third play, and Burrow drove 42 yards on 9 performs to arrange McPherson.
So now this Bengals protection — led by Staten Island’s personal Lou Anarumo, the previous Giants assistant — has to tackle a Rams offense that's constructed to be a monster, even when it’s not all the time all that. Matthew Stafford has been distributor this season in his first out of captivity in Detroit. However let’s face it: Cooper Kupp is inconceivable to cowl, and in some ways a rejuvenated Odell Beckham Jr. is near that. Tight finish Tyler Higbee (questionable with a knee harm) is a red-zone risk, and Cam Akers and Sony Michel assist the Rams matriculate the ball down the sphere, generally 10 yards at a time and generally in bigger chunks.
This will likely be a problem for the Bengals, however the feeling right here is that the protection will be capable of seize a pair extra necessary turnovers. I consider the back-to-back interceptions Stafford threw within the midseason loss to the Titans, together with a pick-six on the second, and to the 4 misplaced fumbles the Rams had whereas making an attempt to guard an enormous lead within the divisional spherical at Tampa Bay.
I’m relying on Burrow to make these Rams errors harm and for McPherson to transform all of his kicks whereas Los Angeles’ Matt Homosexual misses one.
As for the entire, I’m in on the Below. Sean McVay and Zac Taylor have been cohorts within the Rams’ 13-3 loss to the Patriots in Tremendous Bowl LIII. In 4 of the previous eight Tremendous Bowls, the shedding group has scored 10 factors or much less, thus not contributing a lot. The Bengals are 3-0 to the Below and the Rams 2-1 to the Below on this postseason.
Figuring the inevitable sacks and McPherson’s reliability will result in a bunch of subject targets for the Bengals, whereas the Rams will give away a few drives with turnovers. At instances it will look to be a recreation that wishes to go approach Over, however gained’t get there.
Bengals 23, Rams 21.
Championship week: 3-1. Sides 1-1, Over/Unders 2-0
Lock of the week: Completed the 2021-22 season and postseason 11-9 ATS.
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