For the primary few months of the season, it was nearly a foregone conclusion Stephen Curry would win the NBA MVP award for 2021-22.
Curry and the Warriors bought off to a blistering begin and lit the NBA world on hearth with a barrage of 3-pointers and wins. The Warriors had been 18-2 as November wrapped up, and Curry was on the cusp of breaking Ray Allen’s profession 3-point report. Curry was the odds-on favourite to win MVP at that time.
That’s when issues began to go off the rails. Curry entered a house sport towards Portland 15 treys from tying the report and compelled 12 makes an attempt within the first half alone. He was by no means actually in rhythm, and the pursuit of the report appeared to throw Curry off his sport and put his capturing right into a funk. And so started a months-long droop, one of many worst of Curry’s profession, that dropped him down the MVP ladder, and out of the race for some.
However the odds have gone too far the opposite route. I nonetheless consider Curry is dwell to win this yr’s NBA MVP. Together with his MVP odds obtainable at 15/2 at BetMGM, now could be the time to wager on Curry.
There are three causes I’m investing in Curry proper now.
His capturing droop could lastly be behind him: It’s no secret Curry went ice chilly for some time. Beginning with that Blazers sport, he plummeted to 33 % on 3s over his subsequent 15 video games.
The ultimate 5 video games of that stretch had been particularly ice chilly. From Jan. 3-13, Curry scored 18.0 ppg on underneath 32 % from the sector, together with an unpleasant 2-of-9 3s per sport, simply 22 %. Simply 9 occasions all season has Curry made two or fewer 3s in a sport — and 4 of these got here in that five-game stretch.
That was the nadir of Curry’s season, and it’s no coincidence that the ultimate three video games had been the beginning of Draymond Inexperienced’s lengthy harm absence. However that was a month in the past, and Curry and the Warriors have adjusted and realized how you can play and win with out Inexperienced.
His MVP odds don’t make sense vs. different Warriors odds: There’s a bizarre Warriors dissonance taking place round sportsbooks proper now. All of them appear to agree that Curry has dropped out of the MVP favorites. He’s outdoors the highest three at each main ebook, and by a good margin. However the books haven’t given up on the Warriors but.
At BetMGM, the Warriors 2/1 are co-favorites with the Suns to win the Pacific Division. That’s successfully 2/1 to complete with the very best report in the whole NBA, because it means passing the Suns. And if the Warriors move the Suns and end with the league’s greatest report, do you actually suppose Curry wouldn’t win MVP?
He nonetheless matches the everyday historic MVP voting sample: When you look again at NBA MVP voting over time, an apparent sample emerges. Voters constantly give their vote to the candidate who matches the best-player-on-the-best-team criterion above all else.
It’s not at all times the very best staff. Typically that staff has a pair of candidates splitting the vote or their success is taken into account a staff effort with out an MVP — the Suns fall into each classes. Different occasions, the staff is simply too proficient, such because the Warriors after they had Kevin Durant. However in a majority of NBA seasons, the MVP award goes to a participant on a top-two seed who was by far the very best on his staff.
Our almost definitely best-player-best-team candidate aside from Curry remains to be Giannis Antetokounmpo. However the Bucks had been the 3-seed coming into Thursday, shall be quick two starters for the foreseeable future and don’t appear to have any designs on pushing themselves till the playoffs.
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