My spouse is the definition of an informal bettor. She wagers on sports activities for pure leisure, as a few of you in all probability do as nicely. You may relate to her method for nearly each single prime time sport of teasing the aspect and complete of her liking. Whereas it might be enjoyable, it’s typically a horrible guess.
So, whereas I hate to be a downer, I really feel obliged to clarify the maths of why you shouldn’t tease the Tremendous Bowl earlier than you select to heed my recommendation or not because the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals face off at SoFi Stadium.
Teaser fundamentals: In an effort to break even on a six-point teaser at -110, you want groups which have a better than 72.4 p.c probability of protecting after being teased. At -130 odds, that hurdle fee will increase to 75.2 p.c.
If we glance again in our Motion Labs database, all NFL regular-season and postseason spreads since 2003 lined solely 68.7 p.c of the time if teased six factors (6,876-3,123). That’s clearly nicely beneath the hurdle charges at each teaser value ranges in a pattern measurement of just below 10,000 video games.
What about for the 2022 Tremendous Bowl unfold? Let’s take a look at spreads between 3.5 and 5 factors throughout each the common season and playoffs since 2003. Favorites in that vary have lined a six-point teaser 67.8 p.c of the time (702-333), whereas underdogs have hit at a 69.7 p.c clip (387-168). That offers us a complete of 1,089-501 or 68.4 p.c, which doesn’t even come near the break-even fee of 72.4 p.c, should you might even get a teaser at -110 odds.
Teasing a favourite between 3.5 and 5 factors includes teasing throughout zero, which it's best to by no means do — particularly within the playoffs. Since there is no such thing as a risk of a tie within the postseason, you might be paying to tease throughout a margin of zero that has zero p.c probability of hitting.
The lesser of two evils is teasing the Bengals as much as greater than 10, however neither makes mathematical sense. Plus, with just one soccer sport left, you’d must pair certainly one of these sides with the overall of your desire, which makes even much less sense.
Don’t ever tease totals: NFL totals merely don’t fall on sure numbers or inside a selected vary sufficient to justify the maths. There are key numbers to pay attention to when betting Over/Unders, however they don’t hit continuously sufficient for a tease to make mathematical sense.
To place some numbers to this stance, let’s concentrate on totals since 2003 between 47-49, which features a key complete variety of 47 and in addition captures the place the Tremendous Bowl LVI complete presently sits.
Overs on this vary when teased six factors have lined 67.3 p.c of the time (495-240), whereas Unders have at a fee of 70.0 p.c (518-221). Neither comes near the required hurdle fee — though the Beneath has been the higher proposition.
The one potential exception when teasing a aspect and complete in the identical sport is should you imagine they're correlated — normally an underdog paired with an Beneath and/or a favourite paired with an Over — however that’s a dialog for one more day since I simply don’t assume that’s relevant for this specific sport.
When do teasers make sense? The one time it ever actually is smart to tease within the NFL is by doing so with two sides when crossing each three and 7 — the 2 greatest key numbers.
From a purely mathematical standpoint, you may give your self an edge with out taking anything into consideration by merely crossing each three and 7 (and in flip 4 and 6) with each components of a teaser at as much as -130 odds. It's possible you'll hear some bettors seek advice from doing this as the great ol’ Wong teaser (in reference to Stanford Wong).
NFL regular-season and postseason underdogs between +1.5 and +2.5 lined a six-point teaser 75.9 p.c of the time (391-124). And favorites between -7.5 and -8.5 have traditionally lined at a barely greater clip of 76.4 p.c (233-72). That offers us a complete of 624-196 or 76.1 p.c, which simply clears the 72.4 p.c hurdle fee at -110 and barely edges the breakeven fee of 75.2 p.c for -130 odds.
These outcomes seize the closing strains on all groups in these particular unfold ranges. For those who think about a number of different components (corresponding to the overall), you may improve your odds much more.
Don’t tease the Tremendous Bowl: That’s the conclusion right here. In case you are simply going to disregard all the things I say, nevertheless, and nonetheless wish to tease the Tremendous Bowl (as my spouse inevitably will), the historic numbers recommend the best choice is to tease the Bengals with the Beneath.
It could nonetheless be a unfavorable anticipated worth (EV) guess, so I’d strongly suggest allocating your cash elsewhere, particularly with such an in depth menu of wagering choices. However at the least you wouldn’t be committing the cardinal sin of teasing via zero by together with the Rams.
Lastly, this sport is destined to finish with each potential teaser leg cashing, since I wrote this piece.
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