Within the Monday version of Wager Good, Motion Community’s director of predictive analytics really helpful Cooper Kupp’s longest reception Over 28.5 yards, Kevin Huber’s longest punt Over 52.5 yards and the Rams to name the primary timeout. Listed here are 5 extra prop bets he likes for Tremendous Bowl 2022:
Joe Burrow Underneath 12.5 rush yards (-114)
We all know Burrow can scramble when wanted, however he hasn’t rushed a lot this yr coming off his ACL tear from final season. The Yr 2 quarterback has a median of 6 dashing yards a sport this season and has cleared that quantity in simply three of 19 video games. The Rams play a ton of zone, making it more durable for a quarterback to scramble and making me like this Underneath much more. Wager to: 11.5.
Ja’Marr Chase extra rush yards than Cooper Kupp (-160)
The Bengals have given Chase dashing makes an attempt in every of their three playoff video games and are at all times looking for methods to get the ball in his fingers. Kupp has a simple sufficient time getting targets that the Rams don’t actually give him rush makes an attempt, making this line interesting. Kupp has solely two dashing makes an attempt of greater than 2 yards all season, whereas Chase has seven — with 4 of these coming within the playoffs.
Wager to: -180.
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Joe Mixon first rush try Underneath 3.5 yards (-120)
I at all times love these props for the Tremendous Bowl. Most working backs common 4-plus dashing yards per try — that’s skewed by longer runs, however the median is nearer to three or 3.5 yards. For this prop, I've Mixon going beneath 3.5 yards on his first rush try 60 % of the time.
His first try gained’t idiot the Rams’ protection, which is ranked fifth in Soccer Outsiders’ Protection-adjusted Worth Over Common. Or it would even be a second- or third-and-short state of affairs on which he simply wants a yard. There are a whole lot of paths to successful this.
Wager to: -135.
Any participant to hurry for 100+ yards? No (-225)
This Tremendous Bowl entails two superb passing assaults which have struggled to hurry the ball recently. My simulations give Mixon and Cam Akers round a 12 % probability every of going over 100 yards. Mixon has topped 100 yards in three video games this season — all 3 times in video games during which the Bengals both gained by 20-plus factors or confronted a bottom-five run protection. The Rams’ protection ranks fifth in DVOA in opposition to the run.
Neither quarterback has an opportunity of hitting 100 rush yards and the one approach backups Samaje Perine or Sony Michel have a shot at this is able to be if Mixon or Akers had been to go down. I’m giving this round a 78 % probability of hitting and a good line for this needs to be nearer to -350.
Wager to: -275.
Shortest area aim made Over 27.5 yards (-110)
Clearly if both kicker will get a area aim inside 27 yards, this prop is toast. That’s why we'd wish to discover the probabilities of both kicker getting an try inside 27 yards. Mixed, 12.5 % of Evan McPherson and Matt Homosexual’s makes an attempt have been inside 27 yards this season. Trying on the field-goals-made market (Underneath 3.5 is -140 at time of writing), it’s protected to say the probably variety of area objectives made is three. Double test along with your particular e book guidelines, but when no area aim is made this prop shall be voided.
Wager to: -130.
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