Why bettors shouldn’t sweat this Super Bowl spread

In Tremendous Bowl historical past, the purpose unfold has been, on common, slightly below a landing (6.7 factors per sport).

The commonest closing quantity in Tremendous Bowl historical past is 3, with 10 totally different Tremendous Bowls closing with a diffusion of precisely a discipline aim. In whole, nearly half of all Tremendous Bowls, or 28 of 55 (50.9 p.c), had a closing unfold of six factors or much less.

Right here’s how Tremendous Bowl traces have damaged down:

1-point unfold (twice); 1.5 factors (thrice); 2 factors (as soon as); 2.5 factors (as soon as); 3 factors (10 instances); 3.5 factors (twice); 4 factors (twice); 4.5 factors (5 instances); 6 factors (twice); 6.5 factors (six instances); 7 factors (5 instances); 7.5 factors (as soon as); 9.5 factors (as soon as); 10 factors (as soon as); 10.5 factors (twice); 11.5 factors (as soon as); 12 factors (twice); 12.5 factors (as soon as); 13.5 factors (twice); 14 factors (thrice); 18 factors (twice).

Within the 28 Tremendous Bowls that featured a brief level unfold (six factors or much less), the road has by no means truly come into play on the finish of the sport.

Let me clarify …

Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery grabs a cross in entrance of the Patriots’ Stephon Gilmore in Tremendous Bowl LII. Philadelphia, a 4.5-point underdog, received 41-33. Motion Community’s Evan Abrams factors out that in simply six of the primary 54 Tremendous Bowls, the underdog lined the unfold however misplaced the sport.

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In these video games, 14 underdogs received outright and 14 favorites received and lined the unfold.

So not as soon as has the underdog lined the unfold however misplaced the sport.

The bottom level unfold for a favourite that received the Tremendous Bowl straight-up however did not cowl the unfold was 6.5 factors in Tremendous Bowl X and Tremendous Bowl XLIII. In each of these video games, the favourite received the sport by 4 factors, however did not cowl the 6.5-point unfold.

In Tremendous Bowl historical past, solely six video games have seen the straight-up winner not cowl the unfold and it hasn’t occurred since Tremendous Bowl XLIII between the Steelers and Cardinals in 2009. Simply up to now six seasons, three underdogs have received outright — the Broncos (+4.5), Eagles (+4.5) and Buccaneers (+3).

This has been a theme this yr within the NFL playoffs, as nicely:

— Six favorites have received and lined.

—  5 underdogs have received outright.

— One underdog has lined and misplaced (49ers vs. Rams).

In 55 playoff video games with spreads beneath a landing over the past 10 years, solely eight favorites have received however did not cowl the unfold.

Right here’s what this implies for Tremendous Bowl LVI between the Bengals and Rams: When you just like the Bengals and assume historical past will repeat itself, take Cincinnati on the moneyline. And for those who like Los Angeles? Laying the factors isn’t the worst factor on this planet.

For what it’s price, this development has additionally utilized in faculty soccer, the place bowl underdogs normally both win outright, or lose and don’t cowl the unfold. Since 2005, bowl sport underdogs between 3.5-7 factors are 89-134 straight-up however have received a $100 bettor $3,490 in these video games.

And for the reason that BCS nationwide title sport was created in 1998, simply three of 24 championships have seen the underdog lose however nonetheless cowl.