Houston and Villanova will each look to punch Closing 4 tickets on Saturday after they meet within the Elite Eight.
If it is a shut sport late, there’s one main space the place Villanova has the benefit. The Wildcats shoot free throws higher than any staff in NCAA historical past, and the Cougars rank simply 327th in free throw share. That’s a scary thought for the Cougars in a sport that’s lined at simply two, that means it’s anticipated to be shut within the last 4 minutes.
With that being stated, 6-foot-1 Houston level guard Jamal Shead could be two inches shorter than Villanova level guard Collin Gillespie, however I’m anticipating Shead’s athleticism and defensive prowess to actually trigger points for Gillespie. He’s top-of-the-line perimeter defenders within the nation. Just like how Baylor and St. John’s rattled Gillespie by urgent the ball all sport lengthy, Houston’s staff protection can frustrate the Wildcats.
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Houston’s offense isn’t at all times fairly and doesn’t have a ton of shot makers, however Villanova’s mediocre defensive rebounding numbers signifies that Houston will win by its sheer quantity of pictures. If the primary or second probability doesn’t convert, Houston will get extra pictures up on this sport and even when they’re much less environment friendly, the Cougars will guide their place within the Closing 4 for the second consecutive 12 months.
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The market opened this at Houston -1.5 when it was instantly guess as much as -2/-2.5. It has since settled on the Cougars -2, because the market is lastly exhibiting the right degree of respect to Kelvin Sampson’s bunch. In a sport of two elite coaches and two elite groups, the Houston key matchup benefits are vital sufficient for me to put two factors. I wouldn’t lay greater than that, provided that I anticipate this sport to be shut.
The play: Houston -2 or higher
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