Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to be deterred by his military’s setbacks to date within the invasion of Ukraine and is more likely to “escalate” the battle, the top-ranking US intelligence official instructed a Home panel on Tuesday.
Thus far, the Russian assault has been blunted by logistical and gear points along with fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces. Most notably, a 40-mile-long Russian convoy has remained stalled northwest of Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, for a number of days.
“Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks and as an alternative could escalate, primarily doubling down to attain Ukrainian disarmament, neutrality [and] to forestall it from additional integrating with the US and NATO if it doesn’t attain some diplomatic negotiation,” Director of Nationwide Intelligence Avril Haines instructed the Home Intelligence Committee throughout a listening to about threats to America’s international safety.
“We assess Putin feels aggrieved the West doesn't give him correct deference and perceives this as a conflict he can't afford to lose,” Haines added. “However what he is likely to be prepared to just accept as a victory could change over time given the numerous prices he's incurring.”
Turning to what she referred to as Putin’s “nuclear saber rattling,” Haines described the Russian chief’s order to place his nation’s strategic nuclear forces on excessive alert days after the invasion as “extraordinarily uncommon” and famous that Washington has not seen any such public pronouncements because the top of the Chilly Struggle within the Sixties.
“However we additionally haven't noticed force-wide nuclear posture adjustments that transcend what we’ve seen in prior moments of heightened tensions throughout the previous few many years,” she went on. “Our analysts assess that Putin’s present posturing on this area might be meant to discourage the West from offering further common assist to Ukraine as he weighs an escalation of the battle.”
Haines added that Putin “in all probability” nonetheless has confidence that the Russian navy can defeat Ukraine, however is utilizing the nuclear menace to “stop Western assist from tipping the steadiness and forcing a battle with NATO.”
“Russia’s failure to quickly seize Kyiv and overwhelm Ukrainian forces has disadvantaged Moscow of the short navy victory that it in all probability had initially anticipated would stop the US and NATO from having the ability to present significant navy help to Ukraine,” she mentioned.
Within the face of unexpectedly sturdy opposition from Ukraine’s troops, Haines mentioned it was unclear whether or not Putin will proceed to pursue a plan to seize the complete nation, which might require extra navy sources. Even when Russia achieves Putin’s objective of conquering Ukraine, she mentioned, it would probably be hard-pressed to carry it.
“We decide it is going to be particularly difficult for the Russians to carry and management Ukrainian territory and set up a sustainable pro-Russian regime in Kyiv within the face of what we assess is more likely to be a persistent and important insurgency and naturally, the human toll of the battle is already appreciable and solely growing,” she mentioned.
On the identical listening to, the pinnacle of the Protection Intelligence Company estimated that between 2,000 and 4,000 Russian forces have been killed in Ukraine throughout the 13-day-long assault.
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Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier instructed committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) that the estimate was made with “low confidence” and primarily based on “some intelligence sources, but additionally open-source [information].”
Ukraine’s authorities stories that Russia has suffered “losses” of greater than 12,000 troops because the invasion started Feb. 24. The Kremlin acknowledged final week that almost 500 of its forces had been killed and virtually 1,600 had been wounded.
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