Justin Thomas performs an method shot into the seventh gap within the second spherical of The Gamers Championship.
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On the heels of Cam Smith’s victory on the Gamers Championship, the PGA Tour continues its Florida swing by heading to Tampa.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Membership is the setting for the Valspar Championship. Regardless of a late end at TPC Sawgrass, the event nonetheless options 5 top-ten gamers.
Justin Thomas and Viktor Hovland (+900) arrive in Tampa as consensus co-favorites for the occasion, whereas Collin Morikawa (+1200), Xander Schauffele (+1600) and Louis Oosthuizen (+1600) aren’t far behind.
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Whereas I gained’t be focusing on any outrights on this week’s occasion, I nonetheless see loads of worth available on the board. So with out additional ado, listed here are my greatest bets for the Valspar Championship:
Greatest Guess #1 – Russell Knox Prime 40 (+100), DraftKings Sportsbook
Knox is coming off a robust efficiency on the Gamers, posting a T6 end due to a ultimate spherical 70.
Mix that with a very good course historical past at this occasion and I consider you’re getting a steal with this value. The Scot has two consecutive top-25 finishes on the Copperhead course and, in setting up my mannequin for this week, does a variety of issues effectively that inform success right here.
One large issue on the Valspar Championship that informs success is a capability to go low on the par 5s and Knox does that fairly effectively. During the last 50 rounds, he ranks twenty first in strokes-gained on par 5s. Plus, over his final two appearances on the Valspar, he’s mixed to shoot 14-under on the 4 Par 5s.
One other issue putting Knox comparatively excessive in my mannequin is his capability to attain on Par 4’s between 400 and 450 yards. These holes will comprise practically 28 p.c of all 72 holes this week and Knox arrives second in my mannequin when it comes to his capability to attain on these holes. Plus, given three of the 5 holes are inside the 9 best holes traditionally on the course, count on Knox to take benefit.
General, Knox enters the Valspar fifth in my mannequin, so I consider there’s loads of wiggle room for a top-40 play and can fortunately take this quantity at plus-money.
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Greatest Guess #2 – Matthew Fitzpatrick Prime 20 (+150), Fanduel Sportsbook
There’s one ingredient of my mannequin that disagrees with Fitzpatrick — he’s 106th in proximity to the opening between 175 and 200 yards — however there are different encouraging indicators.
Fitzpatrick ranks first general within the area within the aforementioned SG: Par 5s metric and twelfth general in Par 4 scoring between 400 and 450 yards. Moreover, he posted robust metrics on the gamers in key scoring classes — the Englishman gained strokes on the sector in each tee-to-green and method — and performed the par 5s in three-under at Sawgrass regardless of lacking the lower.
Fitzpatrick doesn’t have any course historical past to go off of for the Valspar Championship, however he does have a robust run of outcomes getting into this occasion. Previous to his MC on the Gamers, he posted 4 straight top-12 finishes, two of which had been ninth or higher.
Additional, Fitzpatrick has success on the strongest correlated course for this occasion. Per datagolf.com, the course with the strongest correlations to the Copperhead Course is the Concession Golf Membership. On the WGC-Workday at Concession final season, Fitzpatrick posted a solo eleventh.
Lastly, this additionally could also be nothing, nevertheless it’s price noting Fitzpatrick loves taking part in within the state of Florida. Throughout his final six occasions within the state, he’s posted a top-20 end in 5. If he continues that robust file on the par 5s, count on a very good bounce-back efficiency from the Brit.
Greatest Guess #3 – Justin Thomas Prime 10 (+135), Fanduel Sportsbook
Throughout his final 36 rounds, Thomas exhibits up first in my mannequin and is top-two in three of 5 measured classes.
JT exhibits up first in SG: T2G and alternatives gained whereas rating second behind Fitzpatrick within the SG: Par 5s metric. Plus, despite the fact that he posted a T33 at TPC Sawgrass, I’m inspired by the actual fact Thomas gained practically 5 strokes on the sector within the tee-to-green class whereas concurrently gaining north of two strokes on the sector off-the-tee and in method.
Previous to that end, Thomas posted two consecutive top-10s on the Genesis Invitational and the Phoenix Open. There’s additionally good current historical past to think about on the Valspar, the place he posted a solo thirteenth in 2021, gaining north of 13 strokes on the sector tee-to-green.
The flat stick let Thomas down that week as he dropped north of six strokes on the sector placing, per fantasynational.com, however each different metric was strong.
If Thomas can produce common placing metrics this weekend, I count on his ball-striking will prime the American for his third top-10 in his final 4 occasions.
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