The Submit’s Joel Sherman predicts the AL East.
1. Toronto Blue Jays
O/U wins: 92.5
Key participant: Jose Berrios. The AL Cy Younger winner, Robbie Ray, left as a free agent for Seattle. Toronto changed him by signing Kevin Gausman to a five-year, $110 million contract. However the Blue Jays additionally prolonged Berrios (seven years, $131 million) relatively than let him go into free company after the 2022 season. Berrios is the pitcher on this rotation with the stuff to comply with Ray because the AL Cy Younger, and maybe now, getting into his age-28 season, he may very well be poised for the second. With Toronto combating to get into the postseason final 12 months, Berrios in his last seven begins had a 2.93 ERA and a .587 OPS in opposition to.
Participant who’ll have to step up: Nate Pearson. Toronto has constructed a robust rotation by importing Berrios, Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi and Hyun Jin Ryu and watching Alek Manoah rocket by Pearson because the homegrown piece. However the Blue Jays will want depth and/or some bullpen assist. Pearson, a first-round decide in 2017, has high-octane stuff, however has not been in a position to keep wholesome sufficient to indicate his stuff totally interprets.
Title you’ll get to know: Gabriel Moreno. He had visa points and didn't get into any spring coaching video games. It didn’t matter a lot — with Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Reese McGuire, Toronto was working by easy methods to deal with three veteran catchers. However as quickly as this 12 months, Moreno may very well be pushing the others to the facet.
Largest query mark: The bullpen lacks high-end depth. Jordan Romano, Adam Cimber and Tim Mayza provide high quality, and if Julian Merryweather can keep wholesome he can deliver electrical energy. However this isn't a energy just like the lineup or rotation.
The way it’ll go down: The lineup is closely right-handed and misplaced Marcus Semien, however added Matt Chapman’s energy and Gold Glove at third. A wholesome season for George Springer along side Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ought to make this a top-four offense within the league. And the Blue Jays are in go-for-it-mode — what they want on the commerce deadline, they are going to aggressively pursue.
2. New York Yankees
O/U wins: 91.5
Key participant: Luis Severino. After ending third and ninth within the AL Cy Younger voting in 2017-18, respectively, Severino signed a four-year, $40 million extension. Within the first three seasons of that deal, the righty pitched 18 regular-season innings because of damage. The Yankees might positive use a high-end No. 2 starter to work behind Gerrit Cole and in entrance of Nestor Cortes Jr., Jordan Montgomery and Jameson Taillon. Can Severino return to that kind?
Participant who’ll have to step up: Aaron Hicks. The identical offseason wherein Severino signed his extension, Hicks obtained a seven-year, $70 million deal. He has performed in simply 145 of 384 regular-season video games since then because of damage. There are various Yankees positional gamers who have to rebound from damage and/or poor efficiency in 2021, together with DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres. However the Yanks have some infield protection. Proper now, Aaron Choose is the backup heart fielder with Estevan Florial and Ender Inciarte additionally round. So, the Yanks want Hicks wholesome and productive for even 120-ish video games.
Title you’ll get to know: Oswaldo Cabrera. The anticipation is for Oswald Peraza and particularly Anthony Volpe. They're the touted shortstop prospects who, amongst different issues, satisfied the Yankees to not make a giant play in the most effective free-agent shortstop class ever. However the first call-up may very well be Cabrera, a swap hitter who can play just about anyplace within the infield. A pure righty, he has developed a bit pop from the left facet and retains rising on the Yankees (and scouts) as a participant who can turn into an everyday sooner or later.
Largest query mark: Will the offense rebound? From 2017-2020, the Yankees completed within the high two within the AL in runs per sport every year. In 2021, they have been tenth. Solely Aaron Choose and Giancarlo Stanton carried out effectively. Will a possible full 12 months of lineup variety — with lefty hitters comparable to Hicks (a swap hitter), Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo — assist? What does Josh Donaldson have left?
The way it’ll go down: The Yanks have the expertise to win the AL East, however after pitching above expectations final 12 months, will the rotation take a step or two again this 12 months and can they attempt to purchase somebody like Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo in July?
3. Tampa Bay Rays
O/U wins: 89.5
Key participant: Wander Franco. The Rays have thrived to a big extent as a sum-of-the-parts squad — in a position to make use of a whole roster to the most effective of its capacity with out essentially having many full-time stars. Franco performed simply 70 video games final 12 months, however completed third within the AL Rookie of the 12 months balloting after which the Rays — sure, the Rays — signed him for 11 years at $182 million. He's a switch-hitting shortstop with energy and endurance. He's a build-around piece.
Participant who’ll have to step up: Shane McClanahan. Tyler Glasnow is iffy to pitch this season after Tommy John surgical procedure final August and an ankle process this spring. Shane Baz not too long ago had free our bodies in his elbow eliminated and will miss two months. The Rays are skilled at utilizing an entire workers to ship excellence. Nonetheless, high-end bulk innings have to return from somebody, and until Corey Kluber is able to have a wholesome renaissance, McClanahan is the most certainly to supply it.
Title you’ll get to know: Josh Lowe. There have been many causes the Rays traded Austin Meadows to the Tigers, comparable to liking the return and saving cash. However as massive as something was an opportunity to get their high positional prospect’s lefty bat onto the main league roster.
Largest query mark: Does the pixie mud ever run out? The Rays and the Dodgers are the one groups which have performed at the very least .555 ball in every of the previous 4 seasons. Regardless of payroll constraints, Tampa Bay chased Freddie Freeman within the offseason in free company and Matt Olson in commerce. The Rays did not land both, however it confirmed their mindset — they really feel they've numerous expertise, however are keen to interrupt their financial institution for a difference-making star.
The way it’ll go down: Underestimate the Rays at your personal danger. They're excellent at getting extra out of lower than any workforce within the majors. The extent of star they pursued within the offseason screamed they're going for it.
4. Boston Crimson Sox
O/U wins: 85.5
Key participant: Nathan Eovaldi. He's coming off of his greatest profession season, which included an All-Star look and a fourth-place end in AL Cy Younger voting. Eovaldi is within the last season of a four-year, $68 million pact, so he wants to duplicate an ace-like season to set himself up effectively totally free company. However Boston positive wants it as effectively. Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers. Chris Sale incurred a stress fracture of his ribs that can value him just a few months. James Paxton (Tommy John surgical procedure) is probably a second-half reward. There have been indicators that Nick Pivetta might take a step towards stable No. 3-ish starter. However for Boston to contend on this fierce division, Eovaldi needs to be actually good and wholesome once more.
Participant who’ll have to step up: Trevor Story. Plenty of groups shied away from Story’s free company, involved concerning the well being of his elbow and, to a lesser diploma, how effectively he would hit with out taking part in residence video games in Colorado. He agreed to play second base, with Xander Bogaerts at quick, so he has numerous modifications in his life and questions on this well being.
Title you’ll get to know: Triston Casas. The Crimson Sox didn't deliver again Kyle Schwarber or receive Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson. That leaves first base open for Casas and his projectable lefty energy. Will the decision come this 12 months?
Largest query mark: The Crimson Sox ought to rating, however there are uncertainties about pitching — the standard and, particularly, the depth.
The way it’ll go down: Within the three seasons Alex Cora has managed (he was suspended in 2020), Boston is 284-202. The workforce performs effectively for him. It must. 4 groups received at the very least 91 video games final 12 months within the AL East. That had by no means occurred earlier than because the starting of division play in 1969. All 4 could make a declare as the most effective within the division.
5. Baltimore Orioles
O/U wins: 62.5
Key participant: Adley Rutschman. The Orioles are 198 video games below .500 during the last 4 seasons, unbelievable when you think about a type of seasons was simply 60 video games (2020). All of the dangerous is designed to permit Baltimore to build up elite younger expertise and make a sustained run. Nobody embodies that hope like Rutschman. He was the highest decide within the 2019 draft and his time within the minors has solely accentuated the constructive vibes a few switch-hitting, two-way catcher. Nevertheless, he incurred a triceps damage in spring that slowed down his ascent to the majors. However he's nearly inevitable this 12 months. Is he a cornerstone?
Participant who’ll have to step up: John Means. The lefty is Baltimore’s ace and it's arduous to establish clearly who the No. 2 starter is. So Means must be wonderful to assist reduce Baltimore’s humiliation this 12 months plus maybe give the Orioles one more commerce piece to maintain stockpiling younger expertise.
Title you’ll get to know: Grayson Rodriguez. Maybe the inheritor to Means. A primary-round decide in 2018, the righty fireballer is on the radar for this season.
Largest query mark: How lengthy does the tanking proceed? No AL East workforce has a dropping file in any season in opposition to the Orioles from 2018-2021. Within the final three full seasons (2018, 2019, 2021), the workforce that has emerged to win the division title has gone 51-6 in opposition to Baltimore.
The way it’ll go down: Baltimore is in a division with 4 heavyweights — 76 video games in opposition to the Blue Jays, Rays, Crimson Sox and Yankees. And the Orioles stay strictly featherweight.
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