Brooks Koepka performs a shot from a bunker on the second gap throughout a follow spherical earlier than the Masters.
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AUGUSTA, Ga. — I like these eliminator-style items that all the time pop up across the web earlier than every Masters. They’re enjoyable, insightful, informative and thought-provoking, which is a reasonably strong base recipe for many written work, particularly golf event prognostications.
I’ve written a few of these myself through the years, however I’ll admit there’s an inherent downside with them from a bettor’s perspective: The information could be manipulated.
If you wish to get rid of anybody with, say, blond locks, as a result of no fair-haired participant has received a inexperienced jacket up to now 20 years, then out goes bleached Brooks Koepka, although that’s hardly a rational clarification for elimination.
Then once more, some information are extra factual than others — and we are able to use them to assist our decision-making course of.
Like this one: No pre-tournament favourite has received the Masters since Tiger Woods in 2005. That’s dangerous information for Jon Rahm within the sense that it’s apparently tough to succeed right here with that focus on in your again.
Or this: No participant outdoors of the highest 30 within the Official World Golf Rating has received since Angel Cabrera in 2009. Primarily, whereas there’s extra parity on the high than ever earlier than, it doesn’t prolong past a sure ground; the most effective of the most effective may take turns claiming this title, however they don’t share with the opposite guys. There goes previous champions similar to Adam Scott and Patrick Reed.
There are many others, too.
No first-timer has received since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. (Sorry, Sam Burns.)
Each winner since Scott in 2013 posted a minimum of three top-25s on main excursions that yr beforehand. Scott solely had two. (Down goes Bryson DeChambeau and Louis Oosthuizen.)
The one winners aged 43 or older are named Jack and Tiger. (See ya, Paul Casey and Sergio Garcia.)
Does any of this imply these “eradicated” gamers can’t win this week? After all not. Video games aren’t performed on paper and Masters tournaments aren’t performed on the web.
That doesn’t imply the elimination sport can’t be extraordinarily helpful, although. Whether or not you’re taking part in outrights, props or matchups, choosing for an OAD or majors pool, or constructing a DFS lineup, the method of determining the proper picks ought to begin by whittling down the choices.
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With so many proficient, succesful celebrity gamers within the subject, it may be an intimidating job to easily peruse all the names and choose a couple of of ’em. Utilizing that means of elimination goes to be an necessary approach this week.
Outright winner
Brooks Koepka (20/1): When you didn’t know something about Koepka, for those who didn’t know something concerning the majors and the way they’ve performed out over a lot of the previous half-decade, this would appear like an overvalued, overinflated play. A participant ranked simply inside the highest 20 of the world rating who’s positioned proper round tenth on the pre-tournament odds board? We’re normally searching for the alternative sort of correlation, however as we’ve all came upon: Brooks doesn’t match the same old mildew.
The concept of peaking 4 instances per yr predates Tiger, however he actually turned it into a private warfare chant. Others have echoed this sentiment, however I’ve requested lots of them how they'll obtain this ebb and circulation, and I've but to listen to an ideal reply. (Jason Day supplied my favourite response. Again when he was amongst the world’s greatest, I requested him this query and he merely threw his arms within the air and shrugged, whereas shaking his head, looking for the phrases.)
It’s due to this that I questioned Koepka for thus lengthy. Even after his second and third main championship titles, when he’d presumably flip his sport on just like the flick of a lightweight change, I didn’t imagine it was doable. In spite of everything, for as efficient as Woods was on the majors, it’s not like he simply scuffed his method round locations like Torrey Pines and Bay Hill and Muirfield Village.
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And but, right here was Koepka, doing precisely that. His preliminary main victory, on the 2017 U.S. Open, was prefaced by three consecutive non-major outcomes outdoors the highest 30. He posted only a single high 10 in his 4 begins earlier than every of his 2018 main titles. And whereas he was solo fourth every week earlier than successful the 2019 PGA Championship, it was the one begin he’d made within the 5 weeks since a runner-up end on the Masters.
Suffice it to say, I’ve turn into a Brooks believer; I’ve come round to the concept when he needs/must play his greatest golf, he’s able to doing it. That stated, I additionally don’t thoughts only a little bit of kind coming into this one, both. He completed T3 in Phoenix, T16 on the Honda, T12 in Tampa and reached the quarterfinals of the WGC-Match Play.
For another star participant, which may equate to a middling development which might go both method. For Koepka, it implies that mild change is already half-flicked, as being wholesome and motivated has led to higher outcomes coming into this one than in most of his earlier main wins.
In a subject crammed with younger skills who're largely nonetheless unknown commodities on the sport’s largest stage, I’ll go along with the man who’s confirmed he can elevate his sport for these moments.
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