We’ve outlined our modeling technique for the RBC Heritage, and now it’s time to make some bets.
As is customized, we’ll start with the by-product bets. This weekend, I discovered worth on two top-20s and one top-40, all of which characteristic plus-money payouts. Plus, along with becoming my mannequin fairly nicely, the next three gamers all have good observe information at this occasion.
So with out additional ado, listed below are my three greatest by-product bets for the RBC Heritage. All odds are topic to vary and are reflective at time of writing.
Greatest Guess #1 – Daniel Berger High-20 End (+130), BetMGM
Berger is coming off a disappointing weekend at Augusta Nationwide, however now he finds himself at a course the place he’s carried out nicely.
Berger was thirteenth right here in 2021 after posting a third-place end in 2020 at Harbour City Golf Hyperlinks. Plus, he gained a minimum of two strokes in strategy on the sector in these years, together with a +5.5 output in 2021. Berger additionally has good historical past at correlated programs to Harbour City. He owns two top-10 finishes on the Charles Schwab Problem and a top-10 end on the Sony Open final yr, each that includes programs that correlate strongly with Harbour City.
By way of my statistical mannequin, Berger ranks out fairly extremely in a couple of spherical fashions. He’s second in each my 24- and 36-round fashions and third total in my 50-round mannequin. Plus, the Ryder Cup consultant sits first in SG: strategy in my 12-round mannequin and second in the identical class throughout his final 24 rounds.
Additional, he’s second in SG: Par 4s during the last 24 rounds and isn't any worse than twenty third in each SG: Par 5s and Fairways Gained. The one actual concern with Berger is that he’s forty fourth within the discipline in three-putt avoidance during the last 36 rounds, however I’m hopeful his strategy numbers will offset that weak spot.
For all these causes, I consider Berger needs to be priced nearer to +100 for a top-20 end, so that you’re getting some worth right here. As a aspect be aware, I don’t hate Berger’s top-10 worth (+300) and wouldn’t fault anybody who needs to go bolder with the American.
Greatest Guess #2 – Russell Henley High-20 End (+150), BetMGM
This worth is downright complicated to me as I consider Henley is primed for an excellent end in South Carolina.
Let’s hope we get the Henley who shot a Sunday 70 at Augusta to rescue a top-30 end as an alternative of the Henley that went 73-74-76 within the opening three rounds. However the excellent news for bettors is that Henley loves this course. He was ninth right here in 2021, his second top-10 end in eight appearances on the RBC Heritage.
Though there are a couple of missed cuts sprinkled in, one reassuring issue is that Henley has gained strokes on strategy in 5 of eight appearances at this occasion. Plus, Henley ranks first within the discipline in SG: Strategy in each my 24- and 36-round fashions.
However that’s not the one factor to love about Henley from a modeling perspective. In my 36-round mannequin, Henley ranks second in three-putt avoidance, fifth in SG: Par 5s and eighth in SG: Par 4s. He’s additionally sixteenth in fairways gained, so this course ought to line up nicely for him.
Lastly, the final facet I’m contemplating is that Henley strongest placing floor is Bermuda, the kind of grass featured at Harbour City. Getting into this occasion, Henley is gaining +0.362 strokes/spherical on Bermuda greens, so anticipate plenty of birdies and a robust end for Henley this week.
Greatest Guess #3 – Kevin Streelman High-40 End (+125), Fanduel Sportsbook
Informal bettors will not be conversant in Streelman, however he’s somebody that comes up very extremely in a couple of fashions for me.
Though he possesses the Twenty eighth-best odds to win the occasion this week, Streelman ranks fourth within the discipline in my 36-round mannequin and 18th within the discipline in my 24-round mannequin. By way of the previous, that’s largely as a result of Streelman’s consistency in key classes. He’s fourth within the discipline in SG: Par 5s during the last 36 rounds and ranks contained in the top-25 in SG: strategy (twenty first), fairways gained (twenty second) and SG: Par 4s (seventeenth).
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Plus, Streelman arrives at Harbour City with sturdy current kind and good course historical past right here. In his final three occasions — the Valero Texas Open, the Valspar Championship and the PLAYERS championship — Streelman posted a top-25 end in all three occasions. Additional, he was thirty third at this occasion final yr and posted two top-10 finishes in 2018 and 2019. Streelman additionally owns two further top-20 finishes in 2012 and 2013.
Additional, Streelman ranks fourth on the PGA Tour this yr in driving accuracy and was thirty seventh on tour final yr in accuracy, so I’m not involved in regards to the American getting himself in bother off the tee.
Very similar to Berger, my projections make this worth nearer to +100 and even -105, so I believe you’re getting a ton of worth on Streelman to submit one other stable end.
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