When Philadelphia 76ers staff president Daryl Morey pulled off the blockbuster Ben Simmons-James Harden commerce with the Nets, the basketball world and sportsbooks have been compelled to take discover.
The 76ers’ odds to win the NBA championship instantly shortened from 12/1 to +750 with their odds to win the East dropping to three/1 as of Feb. 10.
Harden didn’t make his debut till after the All-Star break, and the 76ers have gone 16-8 since. Regardless of having the seventh-best Web Score throughout this span, the 76ers have seen their championship odds drop again past the place they have been earlier than the commerce at 16/1 at BetMGM with their odds to win the Japanese Convention at present sitting at 8/1.
The market appears to imagine that the 76ers haven’t improved as a lot as anticipated with the Milwaukee Bucks, Brooklyn Nets, Boston Celtics and Miami Warmth as front-runners to win the East.
Are the 76ers headed for an additional disappointing early postseason exit? Or can we belief the method to make a deep postseason run?
NBA titles are received with superstars and the 76ers might have discovered their very personal Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant with Joel Embiid and Harden.
Of their first 20 video games with Embiid and Harden within the lineup collectively, the 76ers had a 13-7 document with a Web Score of +6.9 which is a considerable enchancment over the +4.1 Web Score the 76ers had in video games with Embiid and Seth Curry. Though the 76ers did go 24-12 in video games with Embiid and Curry, they’ve seen their Offensive Score soar from 115.2 to 123.6 with Harden taking his place on the staff.
Embiid has been a dominant drive this season, averaging 30.6 ppg on 49.9 p.c capturing whereas additionally grabbing 11.7 rebounds and dishing 4.2 assists, quantity that may garner him the league’s Most Beneficial Participant Award in most seasons. These numbers have gotten even higher for the reason that addition of Harden.
An enormous a part of that success is the Harden-Embiid pick-and-roll, which has been lethal, producing 1.10 factors per possession on direct performs wherein Harden, Embiid or one other participant they move to ends the possession. This quantity places the 76ers within the high 10 per Second Spectrum and we’ve seen the remainder of the beginning lineup profit from Harden’s play-making capability.
— There are some issues concerning the capturing on this roster and whether or not it will probably translate to the postseason. Tobias Harris is making $36 million to be a spot-up shooter, a job he’s not notably suited to.
Though Simmons bought the majority of the blame for final 12 months’s postseason collapse, Harris was the 76ers’ No. 2 scoring possibility as they de-emphasized Simmons’ offensive contributions. Evidently, Harris didn’t ship, capturing 2 of 11 in a essential Sport 5 loss to the Hawks and eight of 24 in Sport 7.
Since being traded to the 76ers, Harden is capturing simply 40.2 p.c from the sector and has shot beneath 40 p.c from the sector in eight of his 21 video games with the staff.
He’s additionally capturing 47.6 p.c on 2-pointers and 32.6 p.c from behind the arc, marks that put him in backside half of all NBA gamers.
With Harden taking half of his field-goal makes an attempt from behind the arc, constantly flattening the three is essential to his success. He’s shot beneath league common (36.8 p.c) in 13 of his 21 video games with the 76ers whereas additionally capturing beneath 30 p.c from deep in 11 video games.
And in keeping with ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, Harden’s “blow-by share” has decreased from the 89th percentile to 58th. Harden remains to be scoring 1.06 factors per possession in isolation however it’s not unusual to see extra performs than regular the place he can’t beat the massive on the change.
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Doc Rivers is likely one of the most embellished coaches of all time and is 98-53 in his tenure with the 76ers.
Regardless of teaching among the greatest expertise in NBA historical past, Rivers’ groups have been on the incorrect finish of the NBA’s most historic collapses. They've blown three separate 3-1 leads, three 3-2 leads and one 2-0 lead. He’s misplaced a Sport 7 at residence 4 occasions.
Conclusion: The 76ers ought to beat up on the inferior groups within the convention and whereas they received’t be a simple wins for the Bucks, Celtics or (gasp) Nets, sadly there’s not sufficient round Embiid and Harden to make this staff a authentic contender.
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