Patrick Reed
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Lower than 24 hours separates golf bettors from the beginning of the Charles Schwab Problem, and we’re right here to current a closing set of performs.
We’ve already damaged down our favourite spinoff bets for the match, so in the present day’s focus will likely be on the matchups. I’ve recognized two markets that ought to present bettors essentially the most worth based mostly on each course historical past and modeling projections.
Let’s dive into my favourite matchup bets at Colonial Nation Membership, with odds courtesy of BetMGM.
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Finest Guess #1 – Justin Rose (-112) over Jason Kokrak
Odds by way of Fanduel Sportsbook
Each Rose and Kokrak are former winners at this monitor — Rose in 2018, Kokrak in 2021 — however Rose has the extra full file at Colonial.
In his final 4 appearances at this course, the previous U.S. Open winner has posted finishes of twentieth, third, 58th and 1st. On the flip-side, Kokrak’s victory final 12 months was solely his third top-20 end in seven appearances on the Charles Schwab Problem.
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Plus, Rose has the sting in keeping with my statistical mannequin. Over his final 24 qualifying rounds, the Englishman ranks out thirty seventh within the area. Kokrak, over his final 24 qualifying rounds, sits forty first. However, for those who broaden the pattern dimension to incorporate every participant’s final 50 qualifying rounds, the hole widens. Rose ranks out Seventeenth within the 50-round projection whereas Kokrak drops to 53rd in that pattern.
Rose additionally has an excellent monitor file on programs beneath 7,200 yards. In his final 5 non-major occasions on such tracks, he’s gone Thirty third-Tenth-Fortieth-Tenth-Forty sixth. Kokrak, in his final 5 occasions on such programs, has completed Thirty fifth-Seventeenth-MC-1st-56th. Nevertheless, solely the primary two got here within the final calendar 12 months.
Given Rose has extra expertise on these programs and is a extra correct participant — he outranks Kokrak in each SG: T2G and fairways gained — anticipate the 2018 winner to have the sting this weekend.
Finest Guess #2 – Patrick Reed (-115) over Rickie Fowler
Odds by way of DraftKings Sportsbook
Frankly, I’m shocked the worth on Reed isn’t increased right here as my projections make him a a lot larger favourite.
Over every participant’s final 24 qualifying rounds, Reed ranks out twenty second in my projection and sits thirty sixth or higher in seven of 10 particular person metrics. Fowler, then again, is one hundred and fifth in my 24-round mannequin and solely ranks contained in the top-50 in one in all 10 statistical measures.
Plus, within the two most emphasised classes — strokes-gained: strategy and strokes-gained: Par 4’s — these gamers couldn't be extra totally different. Reed is 61st and twenty third, respectively, in these measures whereas Fowler sits 104th and 102nd, respectively, in simply these classes.
In simply evaluating each gamers on a strokes-gained measure, the hole remains to be sizable. Reed is twenty fourth in strokes-gained: whole over his final 50 rounds on tracks beneath 7,200 yards whereas Fowler ranks out 98th in the identical measure.
The course historical past edge belongs to Reed, too, as the previous Masters winner has two top-15 finishes in his final three begins at Colonial whereas Fowler has missed the minimize in three of his final 4 begins right here.
Because of this, I'd play Reed all the best way as much as -135.
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