The 2-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning will start the postseason as a slight underdog in opposition to the Toronto Maple Leafs. And regardless of the noise surrounding this matchup — the Lightning’s prowess within the playoffs and Toronto’s incapacity to win a sequence, regardless of the opponent — it’s laborious to argue that the Buds aren’t deserving favorites on this matchup.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs NHL playoffs sequence odds
Odds offered by Caesars Sportsbook
Lightning +110 vs. Maple Leafs -130
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs sequence prediction
Irrespective of the way you shake it, the Maple Leafs had been a greater crew than the Lightning this season. Not solely did Toronto end 5 factors and eight objectives forward of the Bolts within the standings, however the Buds additionally completed contained in the top-5 when it comes to objectives per recreation, anticipated objectives fee, high-danger scoring likelihood proportion, and power-play proportion. There are ups and downs for each crew throughout an 82-game season, however the Leafs had been one of many circuit’s most constant golf equipment in 2021-22.
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There are numerous causes to consider on this Leafs core in opposition to the Lightning. Toronto was the stronger 5-on-5 crew, they'd the higher particular groups all through the season and Tampa Bay’s type did wane at instances through the stretch run.
However overlook the Lightning at your individual threat. Tampa Bay has performed a ton of hockey because the NHL returned from its Covid-hiatus practically 20 months in the past, so it’s not all that shocking that the Bolts did appear to tempo themselves, particularly since they mainly had a playoff spot wrapped up in December.
So whereas the numbers will present that Toronto has been the stronger crew, this can be a sequence the place you’ll must depend on uncooked handicapping along with what the numbers let you know. And numerous that handicapping boils all the way down to this: How a lot inventory ought to we put into Tampa’s pedestrian stretch at some extent of the season the place they had been probably simply ready for the playoffs to start out?
As a result of from a matchup perspective, Tampa is without doubt one of the few groups within the NHL that may really feel assured of their potential to match up with Toronto.
Quite a lot of Toronto’s success does hinge on how its high-end gamers carry out. Auston Matthews is the Hart Trophy favourite and Mitchell Marner simply posted a 97-point season in 72 video games, however none of that may matter if Toronto’s dynamic duo goes quiet in one other playoff sequence. And whereas it’s unlikely that the Lightning preserve Matthews and Marner off the scoresheet completely, they do have the horses wanted to make life powerful on Toronto’s greatest gamers.
Whereas Matthews, Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander and Michael Bunting (who's questionable for Sport 1 and past) give Toronto a humiliation of riches up entrance, these 5 gamers will see a ton of Anthony Cirelli, Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak over the course of this sequence. Exterior of the goaltending, Cirelli may find yourself being crucial issue on this sequence, as he has the power to decelerate Toronto’s vaunted high line.
Only a few groups would fairly stand an opportunity to maintain Matthews, Marner and Co. in test, however Tampa Bay has a terrific shutdown heart, a handful of defensive stalwarts and the most effective goalie on this planet. These are the elements you'll want to compete in opposition to the Leafs.
However Toronto’s protection also needs to present a stern take a look at for Tampa Bay’s elite gamers on the high of the lineup. The Leafs completed contained in the top-10 in anticipated objectives in opposition to and high-danger scoring probabilities conceded, in order that they shouldn’t be overrun by this dynamic assault. Toronto now has three pairs that may play a selected position, with Morgan Rielly enjoying in a neater position because the puck-mover, whereas TJ Brodie, Timothy Liljegren, Mark Giordano and Jake Muzzin might be assigned the powerful minutes.
" class="wp-image-22110550"/>As with all best-of-7 sequence, the distinction for this sequence will probably be the play of the goaltenders. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the most effective goaltender on this planet for the previous three years and even in a yr the place he didn’t get a lot consideration nonetheless posted a .917 save proportion and a +17.6 GSAx. Vasilevskiy is clearly the A-side on this showdown, however simply how a lot of an edge the Bolts have in objective goes to be the massive query for this sequence.
Jack Campbell is the one NHL-level goaltender the Leafs have on their roster and he’s been Jekyll-and-Hyde this season. After a terrific begin to the season, Campbell’s type plummeted all through the winter till he ended up on injured reserve. Campbell has regarded extra secure since coming back from harm, however he’ll want to supply above-average goaltending in a matchup this tight. Whether or not he can do that may be a large query mark.
In a sequence the place the margin for error is kind of skinny, the Lightning’s edge in objective is probably going the difference-maker. In a coin-flip matchup, the plus-money odds on Tampa present worth.
NHL playoffs sequence guess: Tampa Bay Lightning Sequence Moneyline +100 (BetMGM)
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