On the heels of its FA Cup closing victory, Liverpool travels to Southampton trying to preserve alive its quadruple hopes.
Following Manchester Metropolis’s draw with West Ham United Sunday, a Liverpool win would transfer it solely a degree behind Metropolis heading into Championship Sunday. As for Southampton, it has secured its spot within the top-flight subsequent season and has little to play for Tuesday.
The reverse fixture between these sides at Anfield noticed a dominant efficiency from Liverpool. It gained the match 4-0 and outpaced Southampton 3.15-1.01 on anticipated targets.
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Southampton Seeking to Spoil Liverpool’s Title Chase
It has proved a tough few months for the Saints, which discovered itself in ninth all the best way again on Matchday 27.
Nevertheless, this membership has been in disarray since March fifth. Over that timeframe, the Saints are 1-7-2 (W-L-D) and has gained solely two of these 10 fixtures on anticipated targets. A big portion of these issues will be attributed to its protection, which has proved completely shambolic.
In these 10 fixtures, Southampton’s protection has stored just one opponent underneath one anticipated aim and has allowed 5 of its final six opponents to create not less than 1.5 anticipated targets. All advised, it’s permitting 1.86 anticipated targets per 90 minutes in these matches, up from a season-long common of 1.52 xG/90, per fbref.com.
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Its assault has proved wildly inconsistent as properly. It has created not less than 1.1 anticipated targets in 5 of its final 10 fixtures, however solely managed 0.5 xG in its final fixture towards Large Six opposition. Plus, three of the 4 events on which it generated an anticipated aim got here towards Leeds United, Burnley, and Watford, all bottom-five groups.
If there’s excellent news for Southampton, its that it may see some optimistic regression because the season nears its finish. Thus far, supervisor Ralph Hassenhutl’s facet owns a -20 aim differential within the league towards a -9.1 anticipated aim differential.
Dominant Liverpool Seeking to Maintain Title Hopes Alive
The Reds claimed its second trophy of the 2021-22 marketing campaign Saturday and now look to provide itself an opportunity at a 3rd Sunday.
It should have to take action with out attacker Mohamed Salah and defender Virgil van Dijk, each of whom have been dominated out of Tuesday’s fixture by supervisor Jurgen Klopp. Even with these absences in thoughts, it’s value noting that Liverpool has dominated this calendar yr.
It hasn’t misplaced within the Premier League since December twenty eighth towards Leicester Metropolis and has gained all three factors in 14 of 17 EPL fixtures since January 2nd. It has additionally managed not less than 1.5 anticipated targets in all however three of these 17 fixtures and has notched two or extra anticipated targets in 9 of 17 fixtures.
Additional, in these 14 victories, it has gained 10 by a number of targets, together with six of 9 towards the bottom-half.
If there’s an space of concern, it’s that two straight opponents have notched not less than one anticipated aim towards Liverpool, which has performed 13 matches within the final 44 days. Moreover, with van Dijk on the pitch, Liverpool have a +1.37 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
Southampton-Liverpool Greatest Wager
I lean to Liverpool as a facet, particularly contemplating the stakes after Metropolis dropped factors.
Nevertheless, for as dangerous as Southampton has performed, I’m not included to put a goal-and-a-half with Liverpool sans Salah and van Dijk. Nevertheless, the place I'm seeing worth is within the first half.
Towards bottom-half opposition this season, Liverpool has gained the opening body in 14 of 19 fixtures. Imagine it or not, it’s really higher in that regard away from residence the place it has gained seven of 9 first halves.
Given Southampton has struggled to create a lot within the first half towards the highest opposition — it has generated solely 0.24 xG/90 minutes within the first half by way of 5 matches towards the present prime three — I consider it could solely take one for Liverpool to assert the primary half.
Moreover, Southampton has misplaced the primary half in three of its final 4 total and in three of the 5 aforementioned matches towards the highest three. In consequence, I might play Liverpool as much as -135 within the first half.
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