Recent off a tourney the place the profitable complete was single-digits under-par in chilly, wet climate, we must be again to a proverbial birdie-fest for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson in scorching, breezy circumstances at TPC Craig Ranch. This event has yielded a 25-under profitable tally in its preliminary internet hosting position final yr, together with 5 different scores of at the least 21-under and 25 at 15-under or higher.
In contrast to the previous two occasions, this one may have extra star energy earlier than the yr’s second main. Seven of the world’s top-13 gamers will probably be in attendance, together with Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama.
Let’s begin with an outright play in a variety the place I imagine there’s some critical worth.
Outright winner: Sebastian Munoz (80/1)
I initially had Erik Van Rooyen as my favourite outright play. I appreciated all the things about him — from the truth that he was trending in the best path to his propensity for making birdies.
There was only one little situation: Not lengthy after the piece was printed, he withdrew. I’ll personal that as a #JINX if you need me to, however actually, EVR merely represented a candy spot on the board the place I needed to throw a number of darts.
As an alternative, I’ll pivot to Munoz, who's getting very near Colombian Charles Howell III territory right here — and as I’ve written up to now, that’s not an insult in any respect. In his final seven begins, Munoz has completed between Twenty first and thirty ninth each single time, cashing some stable paychecks with out ever as soon as severely contending for a title.
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If the CH3 comparability doesn’t do that justice, he’s principally in a bunch with the likes of Russell Henley, Maverick McNealy and Brian Harman as guys who proceed to grind out stable performances with out a lot to indicate for it in the way in which of factors or cash or big-time outcomes. Even so, I nonetheless assume good issues are on the horizon for all the gamers I’ve talked about right here.
I’ll admit that Munoz may maintain extra worth for prop performs the place he can repay that prime ground, however I don’t thoughts taking an opportunity on his inevitable ceiling right here. And simply assume: All of that Van Rooyen cash we’ve saved from the WD can go towards a number of different gamers on this vary.
Prime-five end: Dustin Johnson (+400)
This stays considered one of my favourite present statistics, as a result of it says quite a bit about us and the way we have a look at this stuff and the way we will form them to suit our private narratives: Since his most up-to-date international victory final February, Johnson doesn’t personal a single top-five end in a stroke-play occasion. (He did attain the semifinals of the WGC-Dell Applied sciences Match Play, leading to a solo fourth-place end result.) Then once more, in 25 stroke-play begins since that win, he does personal eight top-10s and 13 top-25s.
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What that tells us is that DJ hasn’t severely contended on the again 9 of a Sunday afternoon, however he’s hardly taking part in poor golf, ending in that top-25 vary in half of his appearances.
With all of that in thoughts, I’ll again Johnson to interrupt a type of streaks, lastly posting a top-five end this week. Whereas it’s not very related, as he hasn’t performed this tourney in a half-decade and hasn’t competed on this course, Johnson does personal seven consecutive top-20s at this one, although just one top-five, means again in 2009.
Prime-10 end: Aaron Smart (+400)
Let’s say you play Powerball each week. As an alternative of utilizing the computer-generated numbers, although, you want selecting your individual, having some management over the end result by selecting your fortunate numbers every time. And let’s say that after a number of months of taking part in Powerball, you continue to haven’t hit for some $183 million jackpot.
What do you do now? Nicely, one choice, after all, is to simply cease taking part in. In the event you’re going to proceed, nonetheless, you may as properly preserve taking part in your fortunate numbers. In spite of everything, consider the remorse you’d have in the event you didn’t play ’em and so they out of the blue hit in the future.
That is basically how I really feel about Smart proper now. I’ve performed him sufficient over the previous few months that I’ll really feel some critical regret if he wins and I’m not on him in some respect.
With three finishes of Twenty first-or-better in his final 5 begins, he’s trending in the best path and will pull a Max Homa this week, profitable the identical occasion for a second time, however on a totally completely different golf course.
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