Yesterday we outlined our favourite spinoff choices for the 2022 U.S. Open at The Nation Membership in Brookline, Mass. At this time our focus is on the matchup markets.
I’ve recognized three head-to-head performs that I imagine give bettors an excellent probability to money a ticket. The truth is, one of many matchup options an underdog that, based on my statistical mannequin, ought to be a favourite. As for the remaining two, I’m backing favorites which are justified.
So, with out additional delay, listed here are the head-to-head markets I’m focusing on for the 2022 U.S. Open – which tees off Thursday, June 16 and will probably be broadcast on NBC and USA Community, in addition to streamed on Peacock.
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Finest Wager #1 – Xander Schauffele (-125) over Cameron Smith
Odds by way of BetMGM
Had you requested me about this matchup a couple of weeks in the past, I might have rated these gamers on an identical degree.
Nevertheless, Smith’s RBC Canadian Open efficiency, at a course with comparable talent necessities to The Nation Membership, go away me questioning if he can conquer this weekend’s occasion. Plus, the Australian’s normally-reliable putter has fallen off in current weeks — he’s now misplaced strokes to the sector with the flat-stick in three of his final 4 occasions.
Lastly, though he’s pretty constant when it comes to my mannequin (thirteenth in 12-round mannequin, 18th in 24-round projection), I’m alarmed by his skill to hit fairways. Within the 12-round projection, Smith ranks 79th within the discipline in fairways gained. Additional, he’s outdoors the top-75 in each placing measures, together with rating a hundred and first within the discipline from 5-10 ft.
On the flip-side, Schauffele has seen his numbers enhance of late. Over his final eight qualifying rounds, he ranks eleventh within the discipline — seven spots forward of Smith. Crucially, he’s discovering fairways and greens — ninth in good drives gained, twenty sixth in GIRs gained — and can be robust across the greens (eleventh in SG: ARG).
However the greatest distinction between this pair currently — avoiding errors. Over their final eight rounds, Schauffele is twenty seventh within the discipline in bogey avoidance, whereas Smith is a full 40 spots worse at 67th.
Given Schauffele comes considerably near matching Smith’s SG: strategy document (1st for Smith vs. 14th for Schauffele), I might play this as much as -130.
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Finest Wager #2 – Brian Harman (-120) over Jason Kokrak
Odds by way of DraftKings Sportsbook
At a course the place size isn’t paramount, Harman’s accuracy with the motive force and on strategy ought to give him an excellent probability this week.
Over his final 12 qualifying rounds, Harman ranks out twenty second within the discipline in my statistical mannequin. Most notably, he’s 14th in fairways gained, 18th in strokes-gained: strategy and seventh in alternatives gained. Additional, he’s twenty second within the discipline in SG: Par 4’s.
In the meantime, Kokrak shouldn't be a participant that fashions out properly at The Nation Membership. He’s 77th within the discipline over his final 12 qualifying rounds and has misplaced strokes on strategy in 5 of his final seven qualifying rounds. Additional, he’s misplaced strokes across the inexperienced in 4 of his final 5 rounds and has misplaced strokes on par 4’s in three of his final 4.
Kokrak can be a participant that doesn’t keep away from bogeys at a really excessive fee. Over the past 12 rounds, he’s 92nd within the discipline in bogey avoidance. He additionally doesn’t earn a number of alternatives to offset these errors, as he ranks 59th in alternatives gained.
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The ultimate edge for Harman? His U.S. Open kind. He’s made the minimize in 4 straight appearances at this main and has two top-20 finishes whereas ending contained in the top-40 all 4 occasions. As for Kokrak, he missed the minimize final 12 months and solely has two top-40 finishes in his final 4 U.S. Open begins.
For all these causes, play Harman as much as -135.
Finest Wager #3 – Collin Morikawa (+105) over Will Zalatoris
Odds by way of BetMGM
Which factor do you belief extra — Morikawa’s placing or Willy Z’s driver? It’s my opinion the reply to that query decides this matchup.
My modeling means that, if Morikawa may even putt common, he’ll have the sting over Zalatoris. Over the past 12 qualifying rounds, Morikawa ranks out nineteenth within the discipline. By way of particular measures, he’s twenty fourth in good drives gained, third in SG: strategy and twenty fourth in GIRs gained. He’s additionally fifth in alternatives gained and nineteenth in bogey avoidance.
Now, I’d be remiss to not point out the actual fact he’s 88th in placing from 5 to 10 ft and 112th from 10 to fifteen ft regardless of gaining all these alternatives.
However, Zalatoris has confirmed markedly worse with the motive force. He’s 122nd in fairways gained and 99th in good drives gained over his final 12 qualifying rounds. He’s additionally 27 spots behind Morikawa in SG: strategy and 31 spots behind in bogey avoidance.
Crucially, Zalatoris might additionally see some detrimental regression with the putter quickly. He’s 73rd in alternatives gained however is 98th in placing from 10 to fifteen ft.
Based mostly on these metrics, I’d have these gamers rated nearer to a choose ’em. Thus, I’m comfortable to again Morikawa at an excellent value.
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