By successful the 2022 U.S. Open at The Nation Membership, Matt Fitzpatrick joined Jack Nicklaus as solely the second participant to win the U.S. Novice and U.S. Open on the similar venue.
Fitzpatrick used a Sunday 68 to assert the yr’s third main by a shot over Scottie Scheffler and Will Zalatoris, the latter of which completed second for the second straight main.
Now, the tour will make a brief journey from Boston to Cromwell, Connecticut, for the 2022 Vacationers Championship. And contemplating it’s the week after a serious, what a area now we have!
Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler (+1000) cleared the path on the percentages board and are adopted carefully by Justin Thomas (+1200) and Patrick Cantlay (+1600), each of whom rank contained in the top-six of the OWGR. Concluding the highest 5 on the futures board is Sam Burns (+1800).
However, earlier than we get into our performs for this week’s occasion at TPC River Highlands, we start, as all the time, with our key stats and statistical modeling method for the occasion. This week, I’ve recognized 11 stats of various emphasis that, for my part, will inform success right here.
With that in thoughts, let’s dive in.
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Stat #1 – Strokes-Gained: Ball Hanging (20 p.c emphasis)
Correlated Stats: Strokes-Gained: Strategy (10 p.c emphasis), Good Drives Gained (5 p.c emphasis)
Outlined as the mixture of strokes-gained: off-the-tee and strokes-gained: method, SG: Ball Hanging will likely be paramount at The Vacationers.
Though it units up as one of many shortest programs on tour at solely 6,852 yards, accuracy off the tee is extra correlated with ending place than driving distance. Per datagolf.com, driving accuracy correlates at a 39.4 p.c price whereas distance correlates at solely a ten.7 p.c clip.
Plus, the historic penalty for a missed fairway right here is 0.43 strokes, the sixth-highest penalty amongst all common PGA Tour stops.
As soon as within the fairway, gamers will must be extraordinarily correct with their approaches. The greens are, on common, 5,000 sq. ft, a measurement that's roughly 1,600 sq. ft beneath the tour common. That’s why I’ve chosen to incorporate an additional emphasis on method play as I consider it trumps off-the-tee play when it comes to the 2 grouped metrics.
Listed below are the leaders in strokes-gained: ball putting during the last 24 rounds:
- Keegan Bradley (+3500)
- Sungjae Im (+3500)
- Justin Thomas (+1200)
- Adam Svensson (+20000)
- Patrick Cantlay (+1600)
Odds proven listed below are supplied by Caesars Sportsbook
Stat #2 – Greens in Regulation Gained (15 p.c emphasis)
Correlated Stats – SG: Across the Inexperienced (5 p.c emphasis), Sand Saves (5 p.c emphasis)
Traditionally, hitting a excessive share of greens at TPC River Highlands is exponentially extra vital than on the common tour occasion.
On common, gamers hit about 65.6 p.c of greens on tour. Right here, the metric rises to 68 p.c, per fantasynational.com. Moreover, 4 straight winners at this occasion have ranked 18th or higher for the week in GIRs gained whereas two of the final 4 have ranked contained in the top-seven for the event.
Contemplating the aforementioned small greens at this Pete Dye-design, I need to emphasize gamers that persistently discover the placing floor. That stated, I’m additionally utilizing strokes-gained: across the inexperienced and sand saves — a staple of most Dye tracks — to account for gamers’s misses.
With that in thoughts, listed below are the 24-round leads in GIRs gained:
- Russell Knox (+12500)
- Sungjae Im (+2800)
- Luke Listing (+12500)
- Adam Svensson (+20000)
- Tony Finau (+2800)
Odds above are supplied by BetMGM
Key Stat #3 – Birdies or Higher Gained (15 p.c emphasis)
Correlated Stats – Placing: 5 to 10 ft (5 p.c emphasis), Placing: 10 to fifteen ft (5 p.c emphasis)
Not like on the U.S. Open, golf bettors ought to witness a low-scoring birdie fest this week at TPC River Highlands.
The entire final 4 winners in Connecticut have reached -13 for the week, whereas three of the final 4 have produced a successful rating of -17. Because of this, birdies or higher gained turns into a pivotal stat. The historic underlying event information additional assist that assertion — the final 4 winners at this occasion have ranked T-Ninth, T-2nd, T-4th and T-Third on this metric.
It’s additionally value mentioning that there are fairly just a few holes at TPC River Highlands that give up birdies simply. Traditionally, seven of the 18 holes have a birdie share greater than 19 p.c whereas half of the 18 holes have performed under-par traditionally.
With that established, listed below are the leaders in birdies or higher gained during the last 24 rounds:
- Adam Svensson (+28000)
- Justin Thomas (+1100)
- Seamus Energy (+4800)
- Charley Hoffman (+34000)
- Mackenzie Hughes (+10000)
Odds above are supplied by FanDuel
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Key Stat #4 – Strokes-Gained: Par 4’s (10 p.c emphasis)
Correlated Stat – SG: Par 4’s – 400 to 450 yards
Given TPC River Highlands is a Par-70 setup, over a majority of the holes will likely be Par 4’s, That makes previous scoring on these holes pivotal at The Vacationers.
Expectedly, there’s a powerful correlation between ending place and general effectivity on the 12 Par 4’s at TPC River Highlands. The final 4 winners at this observe — Harris English, Dustin Johnson, Chez Reavie and Bubba Watson — ranked sixth, first, first and T-1st, respectively, in SG: Par 4’s for the week.
When it comes to the scoring alternatives, there’s combine. Traditionally, six of those 12 holes — numbers 2, 3, 9, 12, 14 and 15 — have performed below par whereas the remaining six par 4’s — holes 1, 4, 7, 10, 17 and 18 — are traditionally tougher.
However, the frequent thread between eight of those holes is that they match the space profile of the correlated metric, therefore the inclusion of that qualifier.
Listed below are the 24-round leaders in SG: Par 4’s getting into the Vacationers:
- Seamus Energy (+4500)
- Mackenzie Hughes (+12500)
- Lanto Griffin (+15000)
- Justin Thomas (+900)
- Troy Merritt (+20000)
Odds above are supplied by PointsBet
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