With the 2022 NBA Summer season League within the books, we are able to begin placing collectively our Rookie of the 12 months (ROY) futures portfolio. However earlier than we get to these picks, I put collectively a listing of key tendencies that date again to 1966, when the league revamped the draft to cast off territorial picks:
- 5 of the previous six ROY winners have been on groups that reached not less than a playoff play-in recreation.
- Over the previous 4 years, the common draft place of the ROY award winner was third.
- ROY winners averaged 19.03 factors per recreation.
- The 2017-18 season is the final time the highest general choose received the ROY.
- No. 1-overall picks have received probably the most ROY awards (18).
- Guards have received the ROY award 26 occasions and forwards 23 occasions.
Given what we’ve seen over the previous six years, ROY voters are beginning to worth staff performances as an alternative of solely a participant’s stat line.
Frankly, I believe that started in 2017 when former Bucks guard Malcolm Brogdon received the award after averaging 10.2 factors, 4.2 assists, and a pair of.8 rebounds.
Milwaukee certified for the playoffs that season as Brogdon beat out the 76ers’ Dario Saric, who averaged 12.8 factors, 6.3 rebounds, and a pair of.2 assists.
Listed below are three gamers I’m for the upcoming season, with odds by BetMGM.
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Bennedict Mathurin (11/1)
Based mostly on the above tendencies, I believe it is sensible to focus on a rookie on a staff with an honest likelihood to not less than qualify for a playoff play-in recreation. And given what we noticed in the course of the summer season league, the Pacers’ Mathurin is a participant who matches that profile.
Indiana chosen Mathurin sixth general and the previous Arizona guard ranked third amongst rookies on the summer season league with 19.3 factors over three video games. Mathurin ought to have the chance to play not less than half-hour an evening as I've him strolling proper into the Pacers’ beginning rotation.
As for Pacers’ playoff possibilities, I believe this staff can shock some folks with Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield coming over by way of commerce from the Kings. Be aware that the Pacers are just one yr faraway from qualifying for a play-in spot within the 2020-21 season.
Keegan Murray (+650)
One other participant who appears to be like to be on a budding staff is the Kings ahead. Final season, Sacramento completed simply 4 video games out of a play-in spot, so it ought to profit from a bona fide star like Murray on the roster.
Murray entered the draft after averaging 23.5 factors in his sophomore yr at Iowa. At summer season league, he led all rookies with a mean of 23.3 factors via 4 video games.
Not solely does he have large measurement, at 6-foot-8, but additionally he has an awesome contact from 3-point vary, as he averaged 37.3 p.c in faculty.
Paolo Banchero (+350)
If I had one ultimate choose to win ROY, it could be the Magic ahead. There’s a sure symmetry that strains up with Banchero successful the award.
Not solely is the ROY winner usually the highest choose, however Banchero was broadly projected to go third within the draft. We additionally know that the over the previous 4 years, the common draft place of the ROY winner was third.
At 6-foot-10 and 230 kilos, Banchero already has an NBA-type physique. Although Banchero performed simply two video games in the course of the summer season league, he completed behind Murray with a mean of 20 factors per recreation.
The one draw back of our ROY system is that the Pacers’ and Kings’ rosters are forward of the Magic’s.
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