Our tour across the NFL continues as we have now simply two divisions left to cowl for division win totals. Subsequent is the NFC South, the place Tampa Bay will attempt to win back-to-back divisional titles.
The NFC South has been house to loads of drama this offseason – Tom Brady retired after which unretired, Baker Mayfield was traded to the Panthers, The Falcons will begin the post-Matt Ryan period, and Michael Thomas has continued his seemingly unending harm saga with the New Orleans Saints.
Will anybody be capable of stand in the way in which of Brady making one other postseason run?
NFC South Win Totals
Supplied by BetMGM
| NFC South Crew | Over | Below |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4.5 / -105 | 4.5 / -115 |
| Carolina Panthers | 6.5 / +105 | 6.5 / -125 |
| New Orleans Saints | 8.5 / +100 | 8.5 / -120 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11.5 / +100 | 11.5 / -120 |
At -300, Tampa Bay is the most important favourite within the league to win their division. New Orleans has the second-shortest odds at +375. Carolina’s odds are at +1000, whereas the Falcons can be found at +2500.
The ultimate factor to notice is the scheduling composition for the NFC South, as every workforce can have the next:
- Six video games in opposition to divisional opponents.
- 4 intraconference video games in opposition to the NFC West.
- 4 interconference video games in opposition to the AFC North.
- One sport in opposition to an AFC West workforce with the same win-loss document from the earlier season.
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Atlanta Falcons Over 4.5 Wins
With a win complete of 4.5 video games, the bookmakers aren’t giving the Falcons a lot of an opportunity. Atlanta received seven video games final season, however I believe there’s a little bit of an overreaction to the departure of Matt Ryan (74.7 PFF grade).
Marcus Mariota (58.2 PFF grade) will change Ryan because the beginning quarterback after serving as a backup with the Raiders. Mariota continues to be solely 28 years of age and spent 4.5 seasons as a starter with the Titans.
I believe there’s a lot left within the tank for Mariota, as this chance with the Falcons might present that he nonetheless has what it takes to be a beginning quarterback within the league.
Regardless of the Mariota signing, Atlanta wasn’t essentially an enormous participant throughout free company. As a substitute, it centered on resigning its core gamers like working again Cordarelle Patterson (81.3 PFF grade), left deal with Jake Matthews (71.3 PFF grade), and kicker Younghoe Koo (87.0 PFF grade).
The few defensive gamers Atlanta did add in free company embody edge rusher Lorenzo Carter (65.3 PFF grade) and cornerback Casey Hayward Jr. (76.0 PFF grade).
Atlanta additionally added former Chiefs Tremendous Bowl-winning working again Damien Williams (71.4 PFF grade).
As for the draft, the Falcons acquired favorable opinions starting with their number of USC large receiver Drake London (eighth general decide).
They then chosen Penn State edge rusher Arnold Ebiketie (eighth general decide) and Montana State linebacker Troy Andersen (58th decide) within the second spherical.
Two extra picks would observe within the third spherical, with Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder (74th decide) and one other edge rusher in Western Kentucky’s DeAngelo Malone (82nd decide).
Within the fifth spherical, the Falcons chosen BYU working again Tyler Allgeier (151st decide).
Atlanta used its ultimate two picks to pick out Georgia teammates, guard Justin Shaffer (one hundred and ninetieth decide) and tight finish John FitzPatrick (213th decide).
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Ought to the Falcons resolve on a quarterback change, it won't be till Week 15, after their bye. Thus, it’s definitely potential we might see Mariota begin all 13 weeks if wholesome.
Mariota would give the Falcons the most effective likelihood to win early on, particularly since their ultimate 4 video games after the bye will likely be in opposition to the Saints and Ravens earlier than returning house to the Cardinals and Buccaneers.
Early within the Falcons’ schedule, there are some winnable video games, akin to Week 3 in opposition to the Seahawks and Week 4 in opposition to the Browns.
The Falcons will even have two video games in opposition to the Panthers and residential video games in opposition to the Bears and Steelers.
In consequence, I’m a bit extra bullish on the Falcons to go over their win complete of 4.5 video games.
Carolina Panthers 6.5 Wins (Move)
Attempting to handicap the Panthers’ win complete is difficult with out realizing exactly who their beginning quarterback will likely be. I’ll be trustworthy that I’ve by no means been an enormous believer in Sam Darnold (55.2 PFF grade), however he is because of make $18.85 million this season after Carolina picked up his choice.
After all, the Panthers additionally landed Baker Mayfield (63.6 PFF grade) for a conditional 2024 fifth-round decide. Carolina’s pursuit of Mayfield solely confirms they’re not fully certain what they’ll get from Darnold this season.
Nonetheless, the Panthers are solely on the hook to pay roughly a 3rd of Mayfield’s wage, with the Browns paying the opposite $10.5 million.
And though the Panthers acquired a B+ from Professional Soccer Focus as their offseason grade, the quarterback place stays probably the most important query mark.
That is a straightforward go for me.
New Orleans Saints Over 8.5 Wins (0.5 models)
The New Orleans Saints received 9 video games final 12 months regardless of dropping quarterback Jameis Winston (74.0 PFF grade) to a season-ending harm in Week 8.
Though he performed in solely eight video games, the Saints offense was fastidiously structured, resulting in solely three Winston interceptions throughout that span. In his earlier season as a full-time starter, Winston threw 16 interceptions by way of eight video games.
Heading into the offseason, it was at all times unlikely that the Saints can be massive gamers throughout free company, contemplating they had been $75 million over the wage cap. And since the Saints can’t probably pay everybody, it’s solely pure that there can be some high-profile departures.
On offense, New Orleans will likely be with out left deal with Terron Armstead (75.9 PFF grade), large receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey (71.1 PFF grade), tight finish Garrett Griffin (51.7 PFF grade), and working again Ty Montgomery (51.4 PFF grade).
The protection misplaced edge rusher Jalyn Holmes (58.8 PFF grade) and safeties Marcus Williams (80.1 PFF grade) and Malcolm Jenkins (retired).
Other than re-signing their gamers like Winston, security P.J. Williams (70.0 PFF grade), working again Dwayne Washington (64.1 PFF grade), and large receiver Tre’Quan Smith (62.7 PFF grade), the Saints did land a few massive free brokers akin to safeties Tyrann Mathieu (67.3 PFF grade) and Marcus Maye (55.9 PFF grade).
As for his or her different signings, they’ll hope to catch lightning in a bottle with gamers like security Daniel Sorensen (46.3 PFF grade) together with defensive linemen Kentavius Road (45.8 PFF grade), Jaleel Johnson (44.9 PFF grade), and Taco Charlton (60.6 PFF grade). All 4 gamers had been accessible at a discount as a result of both harm, a down 12 months, or untapped potential.
Nevertheless, when it got here time for the NFL Draft, the Saints prioritized high quality over amount. In early April, New Orleans traded their 18th decide, a hundred and first decide, and 237th together with a 2023 first-round decide and 2024 second-round decide in trade for the sixteenth, nineteenth, and 194th decide.
Then on the day of the draft, New Orleans traded their sixteenth decide together with a third-round and fourth-round choice to maneuver up 5 spots to pick out Ohio State large receiver Chris Olave (eleventh decide).
The Saints then used their second first-round decide to bolster their offensive line by deciding on Northern Iowa’s Trevor Penning (nineteenth decide).
Their third decide went to Tennessee cornerback Alontae Taylor (forty ninth decide) within the second spherical.
New Orleans used its ultimate two picks Appalachian State linebacker D’Marco Jackson (161st decide) and Air Drive defensive lineman Jordan Jackson (194th decide).
One has to admire the conviction the Saints confirmed in shifting as much as draft Olave. 4 large receivers had been chosen between picks 11 and 18, so it’s uncertain the Saints would’ve received their man had they not traded up.
Whereas it stays debatable whether or not the Saints mortgaged an excessive amount of of their pursuit of Olave, the excellent news for this preview is we’re solely involved with the 2022 season.
Given the standard Olave will add to a Saints offense that ranked twenty third in offensive DVOA, I’m extra buoyed by the Saints’ protection that, over the previous 5 seasons, completed no decrease than eighth in Soccer Outsiders DVOA metric.
I nonetheless suppose the protection will stay comparatively intact following the promotion of defensive coordinator Dennis Allen to go coach.
But whereas there could also be higher performs accessible on the board, I can’t go up taking the Saints over their win complete at even cash for a half-unit.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Below 11.5 Wins
I’m unsure any NFL workforce has a harder opening stretch to the season than the Buccaneers. But, whereas I do know it’s nearly sacrilegious to guess in opposition to Tom Brady (92.0 PFF grade), I don’t see how the Buccaneers will get to at the very least 12 wins when their first 4 opponents are the Cowboys, Saints, Packers, and Chiefs.
It’s price noting that no workforce has been a much bigger bugaboo for the Buccaneers than the Saints.
In line with our Motion Labs database that dates again to 2003, the Saints are 24-14 for 10.51 models on the moneyline in opposition to the Buccaneers.
Furthermore, the Saints not solely swept final season’s collection as outright underdogs, however they’ve additionally received seven straight video games in opposition to the Buccaneers.
And if we give attention to the Saints as underdogs on this collection, they’re 7-4 for 13.18 models on this spot. These numbers communicate to the power of the Saints’ protection in recent times.
Whereas there’s been loads of speak concerning the Buccaneers reloading with Brady returning, Tampa Bay should take care of some important departures starting with guard Ali Marpet (83.6 PFF grade), tight finish Rob Gronkowski (79.5 PFF grade), and head coach Bruce Arians, who all selected to retire.
The offense misplaced different essential gamers like guard Alex Cappa (73.4 PFF grade) and working again Ronald Jones (62.3 PFF grade).
On protection, they’ll even be with out security Jordan Whitehead (74.9 PFF grade), cornerback Richard Sherman (53.3 PFF grade), lineman Ndamukong Suh (49.4 PFF grade), Jason Pierre-Paul (49.1 PFF grade).
When it was time for the draft, Tampa Bay’s first motion was to commerce out of the primary spherical by sending their twenty seventh decide to the Jaguars in trade for the thirty third, 106th, and one hundred and eightieth picks.
On Day 2, the Buccaneers chosen Houston defensive finish Logan Corridor with the thirty third decide.
Tampa Bay’s subsequent three picks had been all offensive gamers with Central Michigan guard Luke Goedeke (57th decide), Arizona State working again Rachaad White (91st decide), and Washington tight finish Cade Otton (106th decide).
With their second decide within the fourth spherical, the Buccaneers chosen Georgia punter Jake Camarda (133rd decide).
Tampa Bay used its ultimate three picks on Sam Houston State cornerback Zyon McCollum (157th decide). Minnesota tight finish Ko Kieft (218th decide) and LSU defensive finish Andre Anthony (248th decide).
New Bucs’ head coach Todd Bowles will possible have his palms full given their schedule within the first month of the season. And while you add within the Saints’ continued success in opposition to the Buccaneers, it’s tough for me to get to 12 wins for Tampa Bay.
Whereas I do know that bettors have usually pale Brady at their peril, I’m going to take a shot right here and play the Buccaneers underneath their win complete of 11.5 video games.
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