The 2022 Open Championship at St. Andrews is correct across the nook, giving us one other likelihood to judge the chances board.
Final week, I shared Jordan Spieth and Cameron Smith as my two favourite outright bets among the many favorites. Now, we flip our consideration to the lengthy pictures and the gamers with heavy odds who might lead to a giant payout.
For definition functions, I’m contemplating gamers who're 50/1 or increased on the BetMGM odds board. Some notable names that match that definition as of Wednesday had been Daniel Berger (50/1), Tony Finau (50/1), together with former main winners Sergio Garcia (66/1) and Adam Scott (80/1).
Nonetheless, I’ve settled on the next two gamers that present bettors one of the best worth. So, with out additional delay, listed here are my greatest long-shot bets for the Open Championship.
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Justin Rose (50/1)
The 2013 U.S. Open champion seems to be rounding into kind at simply the fitting time for a run on the Claret Jug.
Over his final 4 begins, Rose has solely a single missed lower and has posted three finishes of thirty seventh or higher. Plus, Rose is a participant who seems to relish the Open Championship, evidenced by his report at his “house” main. Throughout his final seven begins at The Open, Rose owns 5 finishes of twenty third or higher, together with two top-10 finishes.
One such top-10 end got here on the 2015 Open Championship, which was performed on the Outdated Course. That 12 months, Rose completed in a tie for sixth, solely 4 pictures behind the group of three that made the playoff.
Rose’s case is additional supported by a couple of key underlying metrics. Over his final 12 rounds, he’s 18th on tour in strokes-gained: complete and ranks 14th on tour in SG: placing.
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For these causes, I imagine Rose has a better win fairness than his odds recommend and I’m pleased to play him to 45/1.
Max Homa (80/1)
Homa has little expertise on the Open Championship however is having fun with an outstanding 2022 marketing campaign.
Since February, Homa has performed in 10 occasions. He’s made the lower in all and has posted eight top-25 finishes. In simply his final 5 occasions on tour, he has a win, two top-10s and 4 top-25s.
Homa excels when it’s simple to hit the fairways. Over his final 12 qualifying rounds, he’s twelfth on tour in SG: ball hanging, 18th on tour in SG: complete and twenty second in SG: method. Homa additionally ranks twenty eighth in SG: placing and eleventh in birdies or higher gained on the sphere.
Moreover, Homa ranks thirteenth in SG: par 4s in these 12 rounds that includes easy-to-hit fairways. Given all however 4 holes on the Outdated Course characteristic that sort of setup, I anticipate Homa will have the ability to rating at a faster charge than the sphere. Add in that he ranks thirty second in bogey avoidance over that span and I’m much more inspired by Homa.
I feel 80/1 is an absolute steal and I'd play Homa all the way down to 60/1.
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