Wednesday evening’s headliner on the ATP Western & Southern Open is kind of attention-grabbing from a betting standpoint.
On one aspect of the court docket stands Rafael Nadal, enjoying his first match since tearing his stomach in a win over Taylor Fritz within the Wimbledon quarterfinals. On the opposite aspect is underdog Borna Coric, an immensely gifted 25-year-old who has spent a lot of the final two seasons battling accidents.
Coric does appear like he's beginning to pattern in the appropriate path, although, because the Croatian gained a Challenger Tour title in July and is coming off a powerful win over Lorenzo Musetti in Spherical 1 of this match.
Regardless of that, Coric continues to be a large +500 underdog in opposition to the returning Nadal on Wednesday evening.
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Rafael Nadal vs. Borna Coric prediction
It’s fairly onerous to think about anyone feeling assured laying -690 on a participant in his first sport again after tearing his stomach, however Nadal is the exception to many guidelines.
At this level in his profession, Nadal is used to working his method again from lengthy layoffs, whether or not as a result of harm or simply managing his schedule. He gained the Acapulco title following a month break after profitable the Australian Open, he made it to the quarterfinals in Madrid after a two-month respite following Indian Wells after which he went to the semifinals at Wimbledon regardless of enjoying no grass-court matches within the month after he gained at Roland Garros.
And regardless that Nadal may be very prone to win this match, there are causes to imagine Coric can no less than grasp round. Not solely is Coric match-fit, however he’s additionally cut up the 4 matches he’s performed in opposition to Rafael in his profession. These matches all got here between 2014 and 2017, so maybe it’s not all that related, but it surely’s higher than the choice.
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Moreover his robust profession numbers in opposition to Nadal, Coric backers may really feel assured that Nadal gained’t be on the peak of his powers in his first aggressive match after the break. Although he gained all of his contests instantly after lengthy breaks this yr, he did drop units to Sebastian Korda and Francisco Cerundolo, and he was taken to a tie-breaker in opposition to Miomir Kecmanovic.
Even together with his harm and issues about rust, Nadal will possible win this match. However some faint alerts are pointing to Coric having the ability to grasp with the 22-time Grand Slam Champion, and at +500, that is sufficient to have an interest. Tennis Summary offers Coric a 19.9% probability of upsetting Nadal, and whenever you convert that to a two-way moneyline, you get +402, so there’s definitely some worth in sprinkling some lunch cash on Coric to tug off the stunner.
The Guess: Over 20.5 Video games | Borna Coric +500 (FanDuel)
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