It’s been 20 years because the Mariners final reached the postseason – the longest streak in all of North American skilled sports activities. They’re certainly one of six MLB groups which have by no means received the World Sequence, and so they’re the one one by no means to even attain the Fall Traditional.
All of that would change this season.
Certain, that will appear lofty for a franchise with fewer playoff appearances (4) than 100-loss seasons (5) in its 45-year historical past. However should you’re trying to find a darkish horse to wager on this yr’s World Sequence market, look no additional than Seattle (+3500), which has all of the makings of a title contender with a long-shot value at BetMGM.
2022 World Sequence betting odds (BetMGM)
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +325 |
| Houston Astros | +400 |
| New York Yankees | +450 |
| New York Mets | +500 |
| Atlanta Braves | +1200 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | +1700 |
| San Diego Padres | +1800 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | +2500 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +3000 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | +3500 |
| Seattle Mariners | +3500 |
| Chicago White Sox | +4000 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | +4000 |
| Cleveland Guardians | +5000 |
| Minnesota Twins | +6600 |
| Baltimore Orioles | +12500 |
| San Francisco Giants | +20000 |
| Boston Crimson Sox | +25000 |
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Why you must wager the Mariners to win all of it
Seattle was among the many trendiest title bets coming into the season after a 90-win marketing campaign in 2021 that almost netted this workforce’s first playoff berth in 20 years. The Mariners had been aggressive within the following months, signing AL Cy Younger winner Robbie Ray to a mega-deal and including veteran items to a lineup that ranked amongst MLB’s worst a yr in the past.
4 months later, that hype has been realized – and the roster is even higher than it was in April.
Luis Castillo, whom the workforce acquired on the commerce deadline, has been properly definitely worth the gamble by means of 4 begins – proudly owning a 3.16 ERA with three high quality begins in 4 tries. He ranks sixth amongst certified AL starters in strikeout fee (28.4%) because the deadline, whereas teammate Ray (34.6%) leads the league over that span.
That speaks to only how harmful this rotation could possibly be come October. Amongst AL starters with not less than 100 innings pitched, the trio of Castillo, Ray, and Logan Gilbert all rank within the high 30 in fWAR – certainly one of simply 4 such trios within the league – and so they’re certainly one of 5 AL trios to all rank within the high 30 in SIERA, which is a strong indicator of future efficiency.
That’s to say nothing of Seattle’s bullpen, which leads MLB in ERA (2.35), FIP (3.18), and fWAR (3.3) over the past two months. There’s an opportunity this top-heavy rotation and elite bullpen look even higher within the postseason with fringe starters Chris Flexen, Marco Gonzales, and Matthew Boyd aiding the workers in aid.
After which there’s the lineup, which is stocked filled with productive veterans and upstart children with an opportunity to pop of their first-ever postseason. Rookie Julio Rodriguez has been a revelation atop this order, rating fifteenth within the AL in fWAR (3.5) and sixteenth in dwelling runs (19) as of Tuesday. He’s certainly one of 5 Mariners with not less than two wins over substitute – tied for the second-most within the AL – and that doesn’t embrace current All-Stars Jesse Winker, Mitch Haniger, Carlos Santana, or Adam Frazier.
Elite fielding is usually an X-factor within the postseason, and Seattle has that coated, too. The Mariners personal MLB’s finest fielding proportion (.990) and are on tempo to commit simply 60 errors, which might be the third-best mark throughout a 162-game season in MLB historical past.
Can Mariners win World Sequence as lengthy shot?
As loopy as it might appear, there’s precedent for a long-shot winner on this market. Simply inside the final three years, the Braves and Nationals had been each dealing as excessive as +5000 within the midst of their title-winning seasons. The 2015 Royals (+3300) had been amongst 5 groups within the final 12 years to enter the season at +2500 or longer earlier than successful all of it.
Can these Mariners pull off the same run? We’ve already seen this workforce rip off unimaginable stretches of baseball this season: its 14-game successful streak in July was the longest by any workforce this yr and essentially the most consecutive wins by a workforce coming into the All-Star break in MLB historical past. They’re certainly one of 4 groups to win not less than 10 straight video games coming into the break – the opposite three all received the pennant, and two received the World Sequence.
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Seattle entered Tuesday with an 89% probability of creating the postseason and a 3.6% probability of successful all of it, per Fangraphs. That bodes properly for its value right here – that title outlook interprets to an anticipated value of round +2500, whereas all 10 playoff groups from a yr in the past entered the postseason dealing at +2000 or shorter.
The Mariners owned a 2.5-game lead for the ultimate wild-card spot coming into Tuesday, and so they may benefit from a good path ought to they maintain onto that ultimate spot. If the season ended at present, Seattle would face the winner of the AL Central, which may personal a worse file than this group by that time. The winner of that collection would greater than possible face the Yankees, who've misplaced 15 of their final 21 video games – together with 4 of six to those very Mariners.
Nevertheless the postseason area shakes out, there’s clear worth on this workforce at a long-shot value, particularly with a handful of Seattle’s key hitters getting back from harm. A wager on the M’s now holds a bit danger ought to they falter down the stretch, however there’s immense upside on this group ought to they crash the postseason area for the primary time in 20 years. At this value, why not wager on historical past within the making?
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