The ultimate PPV of the summer season, UFC 278, stay from Salt Lake Metropolis, Utah! As promised, we've got Luca Fury right here to debate his betting picks and breakdowns of the principle occasion — a title battle on the welterweight division.
Sadly, throughout our recorded dialog, there have been some audio points, and we basically sound like robots in it. So, we transfer ahead with out the video and have written breakdowns and analyses with quotes from our distinguished visitor.
You'll discover that we handed over the principle card opener, Lucie Pudilova vs. Yanan Wu. No betting worth there as it's a coin-flip battle, and we see it as a high-variance battle the place something can occur.
Remember to take a look at Luca’s UFC podcast, the place he provides evaluation and picks, even on future fights. If you're new to betting on the UFC, be at liberty to take a look at our how-to wager on the UFC web page.
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![Kamaru Usman [left] faces off one final time with challenger, Leon Edwards [right]](https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/08/kamaru.jpg?w=1024)
UFC 278 picks and predictions right this moment
Kamaru Usman (-350) vs. Leon Edwards (+275)
In a rematch of the UFC title at 170lbs., Kamaru Usman faces off in opposition to Leon Edwards.
That is an thrilling spot, as Edwards may win many placing exchanges. Nonetheless, Usman is so dominant together with his grappling that it turns into very troublesome to see an upset win. The learn for Fury comes a bit unconventionally.
He explains, “Usman has improved his placing and is sweet to superb, however not elite. Usman leaves a ton of openings for counters, which is what Edwards will look to do all through the battle. He's an elite wrestler, nevertheless. Edwards has a legit shot to harm his opponent in these exchanges if Usman falls too in love together with his wrestling.”
At these costs on the time of writing, Fury positions his bets on Edwards ML (+300), within the case he can win placing exchanges and eekes a call or a KO/TKO win and Usman by determination (-115). Basically, a win by Usman by end can be a loss of life sentence on your bets.
However, if some other end result occurs, you win at the very least half a unit on this battle.
UFC 278 picks
- Erich: Usman wins in ‘Over’ 2.5 rounds -179 (PointsBet)
- Fury: Betting technique — Edwards ML (+300) .5u + Usman by determination (-115) 1.15u (FanDuel) — win minimal .5 unit if Usman doesn't win by end.
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Paulo Costa (-400) vs. Luke Rockhold (+310)
A middleweight battle with loads of depth stepping into, Paulo Costa faces off in opposition to Luke Rockhold. A large line right here as Costa is an enormous favourite for this weekend’s battle with the previous champion, Rockhold.
Fury says, “Actually, I really feel like each fighters are fades at this level, and I'm not certain that both is especially dedicated to MMA. Costa has had weight points and pulled out of fights. Rockhold has been saying he can do modeling and all of this different stuff. I’d wish to wager in opposition to each of those fighters sooner or later.”
Fury explains that it's unlikely that Rockhold will sit and jab his technique to victory. This battle might be going to finish in Costa by knockout or Rockhold by submission, which Fury notes, is one thing individuals neglect.
“Individuals received’t anticipate this since Rockhold’s offensive wrestling isn’t nice. If he does get it down in some way, his submission recreation is likely one of the finest within the middleweight division.” Since each fighters have sturdiness issues, amongst different deficiencies, anticipate this one to be over early.
UFC 278 picks
- Combat doesn’t go to determination -280 (BetMGM)
Jose Aldo vs. Merab Dvalishvili
A large battle within the UFC bantamweight division as former champion Jose Aldo battles Merab Dvalishvili.
This one, Luca and I had uniform reads on the battle as Aldo may be very troublesome to take down and doubtless has the placing edge.
“Merab is a relentless takedown artist and shoots tons of takedowns. However there's a motive for that. When he will get the takedowns, he doesn't maintain individuals down.” Aldo defends takedowns at a 90% clip per UFCStats, so it is likely to be much more troublesome for Dvalishvili to carry his opponent to the mat on Saturday.
Luca notes, choose’s usually are not rewarding you for takedowns in case you are not doing harm or looking for submission. That is to say, if we've got a scenario the place a fighter is fence pushing and looking for takedowns, judges will reward the striker who's doing harm.
UFC 278 picks
- Fury: Aldo ML +120 (Caesars)
- Erich: Aldo by determination +260 (BetRivers/SugarHouse (NJ)) | Aldo wins by cut up determination +900 (PointsBet)
Tyson Pedro (-800) vs. Harry Hunsucker (+550)
Let’s simply begin with this, don't put Tyson Pedro in your parlays.
Harry Hunsucker is a loser of three straight by first-round knockout. “He’s kind of only a brawler.” Fury mentioned. “Pedro was as soon as thought-about a strong prospect, however that has light and I can't justify anybody laying the worth on Pedro at -800, and there are only a few fighters value laying that value on. Possibly Jon Jones in his prime. Tyson Pedro shouldn't be even a consideration right here.”
Hunsucker has not seen the second spherical in his total MMA profession (12 fights). If you're searching for a flyer, Hunsucker by KO/TKO in spherical one is +1000, however this battle is a go.
Alexandr Romanov (-410) vs. Marcin Tybura (+290)
The undefeated Alexandr Romanov faces off with Marcin Tybura in a heavyweight battle. This one would be the headliner on ABC so there needs to be loads of eyeballs on this one.
Romanov has dominated his opponents with unbelievable grappling up to now, with a number of takedowns in each battle and a 69% takedown accuracy, the eighth-best in UFC historical past!
Fury instructed The Put up, “I like Romanov as a prospect as he can run the division as a grappler on the high of the division. He has nice submissions and floor and pound for TKOs.” Romanov has completed three of his 4 wins within the UFC.
Fury, like many, agrees that Romanov will get this one accomplished. Nonetheless, at -400, there’s little worth. As a substitute, each fighters would seemingly have a win situation by way of end. Romanov can win by way of submission or KO/TKO by way of floor and pound. In placing exchanges, Tybura may catch Romanov on the toes in a placing trade and get a TKO win. On the value of -165, the battle to finish inside the gap is a suitable wager, but when it strikes to -200 or worse, this can be a go.
UFC 278 picks
Combat ends inside the gap -165 (BetMGM)
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