Within the final two weeks, Tony Finau has as many wins on the PGA Tour as he did in his total earlier profession.
The second got here Sunday on the Rocket Mortgage Traditional, at which Finau solely made a single bogey on his solution to a five-shot victory at Detroit Golf Membership. The win noticed Finau bounce 10 spots to seventh within the FedEx Cup standings earlier than the playoffs begin subsequent week.
Now, the tour heads to Sedgefield Nation Membership, a second consecutive Donald Ross design, for the Wyndham Championship. This week’s discipline may be very even, with Sungjae Im (+1400) arriving because the pre-tournament favourite. Rounding out the highest of the percentages board are Shane Lowry (+1600), Will Zalatoris (+1600), Billy Horschel (+2000), Russell Henley, and Webb Simpson (each +2200).
However earlier than we dive into our weekly bets, we begin, as all the time, with our statistical modeling technique for the occasion. Along with the stats you’re about to examine, I added one qualifier — programs underneath 7,200 yards — to kind the sphere additional.
With that mentioned, let’s dive into this week’s mannequin.
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Wyndham Championship modeling and golf projections
Stat #1 – Fairways Gained (10 % emphasis)
Given how brief Sedgefield Nation Membership units up for this occasion — your complete course measures solely 7,131 yards — accuracy is far more vital off the tee.
Per datagolf.com, driving accuracy has a 34 % correlation with SG: Whole, whereas driving distance solely has a 9.5 % correlation. Moreover, fairways gained have an honest correlation with ending place. Final 12 months, 4 of the top-six on this class completed T-Fifteenth or higher, whereas three of the top-four completed T-Tenth or higher.
Moreover, this class has a large drop-off from winners to top-five finishers. At Sedgefield, winners achieve about 1.24 fairways on the sphere per spherical, whereas top-five finishers have traditionally gained solely about 0.75 fairways on the sphere per spherical.
Plus, two of the final three winners at this occasion ranked fourth or higher within the discipline for the week in fairways gained.
Listed here are the leaders in these metrics over the past 24 qualifying rounds:
- Ryan Armour (+25000)
- Chez Reavie (+6600)
- Jim Herman (+40000)
- Russell Knox (+12500)
- Brendon Todd (+8000)
Stat #2 – Strokes-Gained: Method (25 % emphasis)
Why the acute emphasis on SG: Method this week, you ask? As a result of these greens, regardless of measuring about 6,500 sq. toes, require precise approaches.
The Ross-designed surfaces characteristic quite a few undulations and run-off areas that can punish gamers who're something lower than above-average with their iron play. Moreover, SG: Method has a 61.5 % correlation with SG: Whole at Sedgefield, once more per datagolf.com.
There’s additionally a robust correlation between gamers’ SG: Method report and their total ending place. The final 4 winners at this occasion – Kevin Kisner, Jim Herman, J.T. Poston, and Brandt Snedeker — have ranked eleventh, fourth, first, and third for the week on this metric. Broaden the pattern to incorporate the final 10 winners, and bettors will discover solely three winners have ranked outdoors the highest 5 in SG: Method, whereas solely two have ranked outdoors the highest 10.
Based mostly on these tendencies, I've no alternative however to put a large emphasis on this class. Listed here are the leaders on this class over the past 24 qualifying rounds:
- Shane Lowry (+1600)
- Harold Varner III (+4000)
- Adam Svensson (+6600)
- Corey Conners (+2500)
- Webb Simpson (+2200)
Stat #3 – Greens in Regulation Gained (10 % emphasis)
I debated together with this stat primarily based on the heavy SG: Method emphasis, however some key information factors in the end led to its inclusion.
The final three winners at this occasion have ranked eighth, first, and first on this class for the week. Throughout the earlier 5 occasions, three winners have ranked fifth or higher for the week in GIRs gained.
Moreover, there’s a large discrepancy between how winners carry out on this class versus people who end within the prime 10. Traditionally, winners achieve 1.73 greens per spherical on the Wyndham Championship, whereas top-10 finishers have traditionally gained 1.22 greens per spherical.
Listed here are the leaders in GIRs gained over the past 24 qualifying rounds:
- Russell Knox (+12500)
- Sungjae Im (+1400)
- Matthew NeSmith (+10000)
- Harold Varner III (+4000)
- Adam Svensson (+6600)
Stats #4 & #5 – Birdies or Higher Gained (15 % emphasis), Three-Putt Avoidance (10 % emphasis)
Correlated Stats – Placing: 5 to 10 toes (5 % emphasis), Placing: 10 to fifteen toes (5 % emphasis)
Very similar to Detroit Golf Membership, Sedgefield Nation Membership presents little or no resistance. That results in profitable scores which are fairly low.
Three of the final 4 winners at this monitor have reached -20 or higher for the week, whereas all however one of many earlier six winners have cleared the identical benchmark. Therefore, birdies or higher gained will get a large quantity of emphasis this week as gamers will (clearly) want to attain to have an opportunity in North Carolina.
However, in concurrently contemplating the undulations and quick greens at Sedgefield — the greens have been categorized as “quick” for 28 consecutive rounds — I additionally emphasised three-putt avoidance.
Given a better share of three-putts per spherical than on the common tour cease — 67.4 % right here vs. 55.6 % on common — those that efficiently keep away from them will undoubtedly have a greater probability.
Lastly, there’s an honest correlation between three-putt avoidance and ending place. High-five finishers keep away from extra three-putts in comparison with winners (.288/spherical vs. .271/spherical), whereas top-10 finishers keep away from 0.264 per spherical.
Listed here are the leaders in every class over the past 24 qualifying rounds:
Birdies or Higher Gained
- Adam Svensson (+6600)
- Mackenzie Hughes (+12500)
- Shane Lowry (+1600)
- Stewart Cink (+15000)
- Keith Mitchell (+5000)
Three-Putt Avoidance
- Brian Homosexual (+100000)
- Mark Hubbard (+6600)
- Kevin Streelman (+8000)
- Jason Day (+5000)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+5000)
Stat #6 – Strokes-Gained: Par 4’s (12 % emphasis)
Correlated Stat: SG: Par 4’s – 400 to 450 yards
Given Sedgefield CC is a par-70, that renders Par 4 effectivity probably the most vital scoring class this week.
All however 4 holes at this Ross design are arrange as a par-4, whereas eight of these 14 holes fall between 400 and 450 yards, resulting in the inclusion of the correlative stat. That correlative stat additionally turns into additional important when contemplating that half of these holes rank amongst the 9 most accessible holes on the course traditionally.
Plus, three of the final 5 winners at this occasion have both led the sphere or completed second within the discipline whereas two of the earlier three winners have led the sphere in Par 4 Effectivity.
Listed here are the leaders in SG: Par 4’s over the past 24 qualifying rounds:
- Shane Lowry (+1600)
- J.T. Poston (+3300)
- Mackenzie Hughes (+12500)
- Sungjae Im (+1400)
- Brian Harman (+4000)
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