I’ve damaged down my statistical modeling technique for the Wyndham Championship, so we are able to now start sharing golf picks.
We start, as at all times, with my favourite spinoff markets this week. Primarily based on a mixture of my modeling output and related course historical past, I’ve recognized three markets that present good worth to bettors. In all instances, there are implied likelihood edges based mostly on my pricing.
With that mentioned, let’s dive into my performs. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective on the time of writing.
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Wyndham Championship odds, golf picks, predictions
Finest Guess #1 – Russell Henley High-20 End (+145)
I used to be a contact shocked to seek out Henley in plus-money for this spinoff, however nonetheless am excessive on him coming into this week.
At this occasion, the Georgia product owns two consecutive top-10 finishes — T-Seventh final 12 months, T-Ninth in 2020 — and has gained not less than 2.6 strokes, placing in two straight appearances at Sedgefield Nation Membership.
Henley can be coming off a T-Tenth final week on the Rocket Mortgage and profiles fairly nicely based mostly on my statistical modeling. Over his final 24 qualifying rounds, Henley ranks third total within the discipline. Develop the pattern to incorporate every participant’s final 100 qualifying rounds, and Henley rises to second total within the discipline.
By way of the previous mannequin, Henley charges out extremely in just about all the important thing classes. He’s sixth within the discipline in SG: Strategy, Tenth in GIRs gained, and Eleventh in birdies or higher gained. Additional, Henley ranks thirteenth in SG: Par 4’s and Twentieth on Par 4’s, between 400 and 450 yards.
Lastly, regardless that Henley solely owns two top-20 finishes in his final 5 occasions at programs below 7,200 yards, there’s a case that optimistic regression might be on the best way. On the three occasions the place he failed to complete T-Twentieth or higher — Wells Fargo, RBC Heritage, and the RSM Traditional — Henley was let down by his putter however posted sturdy method numbers.
At a observe the place he’s traditionally demonstrated consolation with the flat stick, count on one other strong end for Henley in North Carolina.
Finest Guess #2 – J.T. Poston High-30 End (+130)
Can J.T. Poston get just a little respect placed on his title right here?
Granted, the 2019 Wyndham champion doesn’t precisely have the perfect document right here — outdoors of his win, he’s made the minimize solely as soon as in 4 remaining appearances — however current outcomes depart me inspired. Plus, earlier than posting a T-2nd on the Vacationers, Poston had missed the minimize 4 straight years at TPC River Highlands.
This 12 months’s John Deere Traditional champion profiles out fairly nicely based mostly on his underlying statistics. He’s first within the discipline in my 12-round projection and sixth total in my 24-round output. In specializing in the latter mannequin, there’s quite a bit to love in regards to the Postman.
He’s regular along with his ball placing — Twenty fourth in fairways gained, twenty seventh in SG: Strategy, Seventh in GIRs gained — and has demonstrated a capability to attain on quick tracks. Over his final 24 qualifying rounds, Poston is seventeenth within the discipline in birdies or higher gained and second in each SG: Par 4 and SG: Par 4’s – 400 to 450 yards.
Moreover, Poston possesses an amazing observe document on comparable programs. Throughout his final six occasions on programs below 7,200 yards, he’s by no means missed a minimize and owns three consecutive top-10 finishes at these occasions. Throughout all six occasions, he owns 4 top-30 finishes.
Primarily based on these projections, I'd have Poston, who owns three finishes of T-Eleventh or higher in his final 4 occasions, priced nearer to +110 for a top-30 end and would again him as much as that worth.
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Finest Guess #3 – Adam Svensson High-40 End (+100)
Svensson has made solely a single look on the Wyndham Championship — tied for thirty first in 2019 — however fashions out fairly nicely.
Throughout his final 24 rounds on programs below 7,200 yards, Svensson ranks out fifth total within the discipline. Though he’s posted some alarming placing metrics — 94th in three-putt avoidance & no higher than 62nd in both placing measure — he’s extremely dependable elsewhere.
For instance, he’s thirteenth in fairways gained, third in SG: Strategy, fifth in GIRs gained and first in birdies or higher gained. Additional, he ranks out twenty fifth in SG: Par 4’s – 400 to 450 yards. Plus, Svensson has additionally demonstrated consistency in key stats over a bigger pattern. Throughout his final 50 qualifying rounds, he’s twenty fifth in fairways gained, third in SG: Strategy and second in each GIRs gained and birdies or higher gained.
He’s additionally coming off a T-Twenty fourth final week on the Rocket Mortgage Traditional — one other Donald Ross design — and has an amazing ending document this season on quick programs. In his final 4 begins on programs below 7,200 yards, Svensson has three made cuts and completed T-Twenty sixth or higher in all of these made cuts.
Primarily based on these developments, again Svensson at -120 or higher for a top-40 end this week.
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