Within the music “The Gambler,” the good Kenny Rogers as soon as sang, “You gotta know when to carry ’em, know when to fold ’em, know when to stroll away, know when to run.”
One component not addressed within the music is the double down.
Week 1 of the NFL has come and gone, and it’s a time to replicate on some season-long bets — and consider if new circumstances imply it’s value including to them.
If you're assured in convictions you made earlier than the season, there are ample alternatives to tail groups that you simply appreciated however misplaced their first week — and fade groups that you simply didn’t like, however gained.
Three such alternatives that stand out from my vantage are as follows:
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Packers to win NFC North +120 (PointsBet)
Earlier than Inexperienced Bay misplaced to the Vikings, the road on them to win the NFC North for the fourth consecutive yr hovered between -155 and -180.
The Packers are nonetheless integrating offensive items. They have been lacking star offensive sort out David Bakhtiari and their presumed prime receiver, Allen Lazard.
The scoreboard confirmed that they misplaced by 16 factors, however they misplaced a landing when rookie extensive receiver Christian Watson dropped a ball that will’ve led to a straightforward rating, and there was one other time the place they have been stuffed on fourth and objective from the 1-yard line.
To make certain, they deserved to lose the sport, however not essentially as dramatically as the ultimate rating indicated.
In the event you believed within the Packers per week in the past, they've a a lot better worth in the present day.
Patriots to make playoffs +230 (DraftKings).
It is extremely modern to be down on the Patriots.
The offensive coordinator scenario with Matt Patricia and Joe Choose, two males who failed as head coaches, has been straightforward to poke enjoyable at for months.
Each report out of coaching camp indicated discombobulation in New England.
Earlier than the season, the Patriots have been about +160 to make the playoffs. Doubling down on them at +230 successfully can function a contrarian perception that Invoice Belichick is aware of what he’s doing and can work out a approach to proper the ship with the personnel he’s bought by the point apple selecting season turns towards the vacations.
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Chargers to overlook the playoffs +210 (Caesars).
That is one other contrarian decide, because the Chargers have been preseason darlings within the media after which proceeded to win their first recreation, versus the Las Vegas Raiders.
We’ve seen the Chargers begin sizzling and fade earlier than.
Final yr, they started the season 4-1, however completed 9-8 and missed the playoffs.
The final time the Chargers made the playoffs was 2018, which predates the Justin Herbert period.
This can be a guess the place you don't essentially should consider it's possible that the Chargers don't make the playoffs; there simply must be a higher than one-third probability of that taking place for it to be optimistic anticipated worth.
Earlier than the season, the Chargers hovered round +150 to overlook the playoffs.
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