For a lot of the twenty first century, one technique to win a Tremendous Bowl was to draft a franchise quarterback … and wait.
Take into account that from 2003-19, 15 of 17 Tremendous Bowl winners had been led by a quarterback they drafted — or, in Eli Manning’s case, acquired on draft night time. Drew Brees (2009 Saints) and Peyton Manning (2015 Broncos) each led a brand new workforce to a title, however solely after severe damage abruptly ended their preliminary tenures.
The system was easy: discover a franchise quarterback, then construct the roster round him. That works properly should you draft a generational expertise like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Ben Roethlisberger, who mixed to win 9 of these 17 titles. Six of the remaining eight rings went to Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, and Patrick Mahomes — all of whom are properly on their technique to Canton. And the 2 remaining outliers, Joe Flacco (2012) and Nick Foles (2017), posted historic postseason numbers to reward the groups that drafted them.
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Then, one thing occurred: groups began constructing their rosters first, then including the quarterback later. And it labored instantly.
We noticed a glimpse of it with the Broncos, who reached two Tremendous Bowls in Manning’s four-year run and gained a title in his remaining season. We didn’t see one other quarterback of his caliber — or something shut — hit free company till 2020 when Brady shockingly ended his 20-year reign in New England.
Tampa Bay pounced, and the remaining is historical past. What got here subsequent was apparent for individuals who noticed the indicators: the Buccaneers had an elite protection and loaded skill-position group however had been saddled by turnover machine Jameis Winston, who constantly hindered this workforce’s subject place and scoring probabilities. They had been, in essence, “one quarterback away.”
It was the identical story a 12 months later, when the Rams spent two first-round picks to swap starter Jared Goff for Professional Bowl passer Matthew Stafford. Los Angeles owned a Tremendous Bowl roster with an erratic quarterback and was, in idea, an improve away from a title. As soon as once more, the idea bore fruit.
That’s the backdrop to this season, which follows one of many craziest summers of participant motion in league historical past. 9 groups will enter the 2022 marketing campaign with a brand new signal-caller, all of them hoping that their workforce is really “one quarterback away” from rivalry.
So who actually suits the invoice this season? The plain candidate is the Broncos, who dealt one of many largest commerce packages in NFL historical past to pry Wilson — who beat them within the 2014 Tremendous Bowl — from the Seahawks. This protection has lengthy been title-worthy and ranked fourth in factors allowed per drive (1.78) a 12 months in the past regardless of going through the fourth-most performs per drive (6.56). That’s normally a perform of a torpid offense asking an excessive amount of of its protection; sound acquainted?
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That QB growth may come from inside, too. The Payments had been “one quarterback away” till Josh Allen elevated his sport to an MVP stage; now they’re the Tremendous Bowl favorites. May the Dolphins be due for the same bump? Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t lived as much as his unique billing as a top-five decide, however he’s within the good place to maximise his abilities in new head coach Mike McDaniel’s offense — flanked by electrical receivers, a dynamic run sport and one of many league’s most talent-rich defenses.
Watch out making use of this idea to each workforce with a brand new quarterback. Matt Ryan is a serious improve for the Colts, however this roster had loads of points by the top of final season past simply Carson Wentz. The Panthers are amongst my sleeper groups this 12 months, however even I can admit that Baker Mayfield probably isn’t the man to raise a workforce from frisky to scary.
Finally, that is nonetheless a quarterbacks’ league, however that doesn’t all the time imply grooming a homegrown expertise prefer it as soon as did. In order you’re scanning for Tremendous Bowl values forward of Week 1, think about these groups that had been “one quarterback away” coming into this offseason. It may pay large dividends instantly.
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