Getty Photographs; Charles Wenzelberg/New York Publish
Right here on this little nook of Publish Sports activities+, we at all times attempt to be well timed. And I can hardly consider something extra well timed than …
The 2023 Yankees.
Significantly their position-player group.
What's well timed about that? Properly, have you ever been watching the Yankees hitters within the second half? Have you ever seen the system of accidents, inadequacies and inexperience? That isn’t only a 2022 second-half drawback.
Really, we must always begin the place we at all times begin a Yankees dialogue in 2022: with Aaron Decide. He's going to have (in all probability) an AL MVP award, 60-plus homers and each Yankees fan on this planet screaming at Hal Steinbrenner to not lose the very best, hottest participant on the crew. So it isn’t precisely as if he wants far more negotiating ammunition. However this season has provided it in some ways. His representatives ought to present up on the first negotiating session after this season holding a 2023 Yankees roster in a single hand and a clean examine within the different.
As a result of for those who haven’t seen, just about the entire Yankees’ good lefty hitters are resulting from be free brokers, and what stays among the many positional group is a few mixture of overly right-handed, hooked on the IL or attempting to show they belong within the majors — not the material of a New York membership with championship aspirations.
On this world, Decide has been an enormous in a land of lineup munchkins as harm and/or manufacturing decreases have struck Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks, DJ LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton. Every is below contractual management by means of at the very least subsequent season. Do you suppose the issues about them will reduce or worsen? Earlier than you reply: Donaldson will play at age 37 in 2023, Hicks at 33, LeMahieu at 34 and Stanton at 33, and every has battled main or continual well being points previously few years.
That would elevate the query of whether or not the Yankees ought to make investments a couple of hundred million dollars to signal Decide by means of his 30s and what finally will embody his decline section. So the Yankees may stroll away, however what would they be left with?
At this second, these are the Yankees’ starters for 2023, together with simply gamers below management:
Catcher — Jose Trevino
First base — DJ LeMahieu
Second base — Gleyber Torres
Shortstop — Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Third base — Josh Donaldson
Left discipline — Aaron Hicks
Heart discipline — Harrison Bader
Proper discipline — Oswaldo Cabrera
DH — Giancarlo Stanton
Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe can be elements sooner or later, possibly even initially of the season.
As cores go, that's not spectacular. Even with Decide, the Yankees must work out learn how to add a greater group of insurance coverage insurance policies.
So why don’t we use 3Up to research three points that we're seeing percolate that promise to be a part of the 2023 roster decision-making. These points are usually not going away even when Decide accepts, say, an eight-year, $313.5 million extension (word the Decide-favored symbolism of getting precisely $100 million greater than the Yankees provided within the offseason and a positional report of $39.19 million per season):
1. The lefty situation
The Yankees lastly conceded on the 2021 commerce deadline that being too right-handed was a detriment, they usually traded for Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo. Gallo proved one other level that ought to assist Decide in contract negotiations — not everyone seems to be constructed to play in New York for the Yankees. Decide, like Derek Jeter, truly feeds off of the surroundings.
Gallo was traded at this yr’s deadline. Rizzo signed a one-year extension final offseason with a $16 million choice for 2023. Does Rizzo decide out? He has had a nice season, however he'll play at 33 subsequent yr. He's presently on the injured listing resulting from migraines that stem from take care of a decrease again situation that has beset the primary baseman for years. So is it sure he can recreate even simply the $16 million within the free-agent market? May the Yankees tack on a $16 million crew choice for 2024 with some buyout dollars to persuade him to remain? Do they need him to remain?
Matt Carpenter was a godsend uncovered through the yr. He hit lefties and righties. He hit good pitching. He hit within the clutch. He capitalized on Yankee Stadium’s dimensions along with his lefty energy stroke. However he can be 37 subsequent yr. Will another crew be seduced by what was seen in 154 Yankees plate appearances to signal him for a number of years? Would the Yankees, coming off of a foot fracture that makes him iffy to return for the playoffs? If he returns, he may very well be a part of an answer to switch Rizzo at first. Or if Rizzo returns, Carpenter may fill the utility position that he was excelling at earlier than his harm.
Andrew Benintendi shook off a foul first week with the Yankees, and was hitting .303 with an .827 OPS in his previous 24 video games earlier than struggling a damaged hamate bone that makes his return this yr doubtful. Do the Yankees attempt to re-sign him?
The Yankees have had eight hitters take at the very least 30 plate appearances from the left facet this yr. Carpenter has a 1.138 OPS, Rizzo .832, Benintendi .734, Gallo .621, Hicks .612, Marwin Gonzalez .558, Cabrera .418 and Estevan Florial .306. Carpenter, Rizzo, Benintendi and Gonzalez are free brokers. Gallo was traded. The returning lefties for 2023 are the switch-hitting Hicks and Cabrera plus the lefty-swinging Florial. One of the best main league-ready prospects, Peraza and Volpe, are righties.
This is the reason first baseman Freddie Freeman and shortstop Corey Seager had been such interesting free brokers final offseason for the Yankees. Each had been big-game-proven lefty hitters at positions of want who may present safety if Decide had been to go away whereas bettering the crew’s championship prospects in 2022. The approaching free-agent market is with no lefty hitter of that ilk. One of the best of the bunch is probably going Brandon Nimmo, who if he leaves the Mets would value significantly greater than Benintendi.
If the Yankees had been to maintain at the very least two of three from amongst Benintendi, Carpenter and Rizzo and add a flexible lefty swinger equivalent to Jace Peterson in free company or Arizona’s Josh Rojas in a commerce, that actually would assist in 2023 because the Yankees wait hopefully for the lefty bats of outfielder Jasson Dominguez (a switch-hitter) and catcher Austin Wells, and the further-away duo of Spencer Jones and Trey Sweeney to reach from the minor leagues.
2. Are the children alright?
A favourite pastime of fan bases, together with the Yankees’, is to scream for his or her membership to summon high prospects and/or gamers who're performing properly within the minors. That is akin to when the fan base screams for the backup quarterback who, when lastly inserted into the lineup, exhibits everybody why he was the backup quarterback.
Miguel Andujar and Florial carried out properly at Triple-A, however they haven’t capitalized when given transient possibilities within the majors. Cabrera has proven no worry, a little bit of a aptitude, a excessive baseball IQ and flexibility. However will he hit ultimately, or is he a twenty sixth man? Can shortstop and/or second base simply be handed to Peraza or Volpe subsequent yr?
The Yankees actually, actually like Peraza and love Volpe, they usually have made large bets on them. They didn’t get into an elite free-agent shortstop class final yr partly as a result of they thought Peraza and Volpe could be in play no later than 2023. That will recommend they won't delve into the upcoming free-agent shortstop marketplace for Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson or Trea Turner. That would imply the Yankees would have minimal wage earners at one or two key spots, thus making it a neater promote for Hal Steinbrenner to spend what is critical to retain Decide. That needed to be a part of the calculus in defending Peraza and Volpe at this yr’s commerce deadline.
However is both a model of Jeter, a participant who is usually a high-end offensive contributor in his rookie yr?
Within the years between the arrivals of Jeter and Decide, there haven't been many homegrown position-player success tales for the Yankees. As a substitute there too typically have been meteors who then flamed out, rapidly shedding their worth to the Yankees and within the business. Andujar, Greg Chicken, Clint Frazier and Gary Sanchez had been supposed to affix Decide to type a sustained championship nucleus. So was Gleyber Torres. Now the Yankees are also going to must determine what to do with Torres within the offseason. Protecting him, buying and selling him (what's the marketplace for him?) and even non-tendering Torres has some risk.
However this monitor report ought to make the Yankees hesitant to overly depend on Peraza and Volpe.
3. Will the protection relaxation?
The Yankees’ run prevention has remained usually robust even throughout their second-half regression. That attribute plus Decide’s bat has enabled the Yankees to win sufficient to retain first place within the AL East.
The Yankees don't wish to get away from that. An outfield of Benintendi, Bader and Decide could be high-end. Peraza possible could be a defensive improve over Kiner-Falefa at brief.
The protection of Jose Trevino and Kyle Higashioka behind the plate has been an essential spine of the crew. Yankees catchers far and away lead all groups in Fangraphs’ model of defensive runs saved. Among the many 114 catchers Baseball Prospectus ranks with their defensive metric, coming into Thursday’s video games, Trevino was first and Higashioka tenth. That's far more essential than what they create offensively.
Nonetheless, Trevino’s offense has cratered within the second half after his uplifting first half. And Higashioka has just about proven he won't hit within the majors. Actually, the one Yankees in historical past with at the very least 600 profession plate appearances and a decrease batting common than Higashioka’s .187 are pitchers: Lefty Gomez, Fritz Peterson, Mel Stottlemyre, Whitey Ford, Allie Reynolds and Eddie Lopat.
The Yankees can change out Higashioka for the robust defensive fame of Ben Rortvedt subsequent yr, however Rortvedt, although he hits lefty, tasks to hit as badly or worse than Higashioka. Does that encourage the Yankees to take a position much more prospect capital to attempt to land Sean Murphy from the A’s? A high-end, two-way catcher is a rarity within the sport lately, and two — Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman and Toronto’s Alejandro Kirk — are going to be within the Yankees’ division for some time.
What to do at third? In the absolute best world, the Yankees would like to make the $29 million they owe Donaldson subsequent yr between wage and a 2024 buyout disappear. The identical with the three years at $30.5 million owed Hicks. However no membership is taking that on except the Yankees eat a considerable portion and/or take again unhealthy contracts. The Yankees very properly might must determine whether or not they wish to launch both. Do they create one or each again and shield themselves with higher safety blankets? Hicks already is a fourth outfielder when the Yankees are nearer to full power.
Donaldson brings a draw back, however he has helped the protection. LeMahieu additionally performed properly at third this yr. However Donaldson, Hicks, LeMahieu and Stanton, plus Carpenter and Rizzo in the event that they return, all present that age/harm concern. At this level, it could be an even bigger shock if all six didn't spend time on the injured listing subsequent yr over even two staying off the IL all season.
Can the Yankees discover extra offense within the market with out an enormous threat of harm and with no defensive draw back? That's costly whether it is even obtainable, and I don’t see Steinbrenner muscling up financially for Decide and one other piece close to the highest of the market. Will Shohei Ohtani turn out to be obtainable in a commerce this offseason? He offers a starter whom the Yankees would like to have, however positionally he's a DH and what do the Yankees do in that occasion with Stanton, who at greatest can play the outfield a couple of occasions every week?
The Yankees owe Stanton $130 million over 5 years after this season, and — as with Donaldson and Hicks — I'm not positive his contract is tradeable, definitely not with out consuming an enormous chunk or absorbing unhealthy contracts again. Plus, Stanton has a full no-trade clause, which he beforehand used to dam offers from Miami to St. Louis or San Francisco and direct himself to the Yankees.
Thus, even when the Yankees hold Decide, there's a fairly good likelihood he can be surrounded once more principally by older and injury-prone or younger and unproven gamers. We're, in actual time, watching that future now.
For it to be extra encouraging, the Yankees actually are going to want Peraza and Volpe to emulate Decide — by coming from the system, having the ability to deal with New York and delivering a direct impression.
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