US Open prediction: Picks and odds for Serena Williams’ match against Ajla Tomljanovic

Serena Williams is just not finished simply but.

After breezing by means of her Spherical 1 opponent, World No. 80 Danka Kovinic, most individuals (together with bookmakers and myself) thought that getting previous World No. 2 Annett Kontaveit could be a bridge too far for the 40-year-old Williams. The Estonian was a -220 favourite over Williams, however dropped the primary and third units of a riveting match in entrance of a raucous, well-served New York Metropolis crowd.

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The fear for Kontaveit backers was that the second would overwhelm the Estonian and throw her off her recreation simply sufficient to cede the court docket to Serena. That’s precisely what occurred, particularly within the third set, as Kontaveit began hitting errors in massive moments and by no means was capable of get the match on her phrases sufficient to get Serena out of her consolation zone.

To beat Serena at this level of her profession, you could discover a method to interact her in lengthy rallies and lengthen the match to reap the benefits of her diminishing mobility. Williams nonetheless has an elite first serve and highly effective groundstrokes, so she will dictate play by means of her pressure, however if you happen to can survive that and maintain the ball in play lengthy sufficient to get the 23-time champion on the transfer, you’ll give your self an awesome probability to come back out on high.

Serena Williams.
Serena Williams waves to the gang after her second spherical victory.
Corbis by way of Getty Photos

That’s simpler stated than finished, although, and Ajla Tomljanovic would be the subsequent competitor to search out that out. The 29-year-old Aussie is a +120 underdog in opposition to Serena on Friday night time. 

Tomljanovic has loved a fairly stable summer season, making a run to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon after which following that up with some modest success throughout the summer season hard-court swing.

Like Kontaveit, Tomljanovic might be undervalued right here in a vacuum. Bookmakers know that individuals will need to guess Serena Williams on Friday night time, to allow them to grasp principally any worth and nonetheless take cash. Much like the “Tiger Tax” in golf, Serena-backers will know going into the match that they’re paying a premium.

On the opposite facet of the coin, it have to be thought of how a lot of an element the second and crowd have on Serena’s opponents proper now. It takes a particular kind of athlete to have the ability to drown out the noise and give attention to tennis in this type of setting and it was fairly clear that Kontaveit struggled with it on Wednesday night time. 

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Though in respectable type off a quarterfinal run in Cincinnati, Tomljanovic isn’t as full a participant as Kontaveit and is particularly susceptible along with her second serve. We noticed Serena attempt to reap the benefits of Kontaveit’s second serve to some success on Wednesday night time and that may be a recipe that the American can replicate right here. 

Though Williams is clearly nowhere close to the extent she was at throughout her salad days, it does appear evident that she gained’t go quietly into her retirement. Serena’s win over Kovinic was a pleasant story, however her efficiency in opposition to Kontaveit was a warning shot that possibly she’s bought extra to provide than she let on in suspect performances in Toronto and Cincinnati. 

With Serena upping her stage and taking part in in entrance of a raucous crowd, this match may have loads of twists and turns. Nevertheless it does appear to be we may be assured in a few issues: Serena gained’t go quietly and he or she isn’t on the peak of her powers, so she gained’t blow Tomljanovic off the court docket. 

Serena Williams vs. Ajla Tomljanovic choose:

Over 2.5 units (+118, BetMGM)

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