Aaron Decide got here agonizingly shut to tying Roger Maris’ Yankee and American League document on Thursday evening. With the sport tied within the backside of the ninth, Decide squared up a pitch from Matt Barnes, however hit it to the deepest a part of the park. Thus, the ball landed in Kike Hernandez’s glove as an alternative of Cooperstown.
Decide will get one other go at hitting No. 61 on Friday evening in opposition to the Purple Sox, and he’s received himself a significantly better pitching matchup than the one he noticed on Thursday. Decide entered his showdown with Michael Wacha with an 0-for-14 ledger in opposition to the Boston pitcher. He went hitless however did draw three walks throughout the evening.
Decide and the Yankees will tackle veteran Wealthy Hill on Friday evening. The workforce is a -215 favourite behind Gerrit Cole, and Decide is +225 to hit No. 61.
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Yankees vs. Purple Sox prediction: Will Aaron Decide hit a house run?
It’s not an enormous pattern measurement in any respect, however Decide has had success in opposition to Wealthy Hill in his profession. The Yankee slugger has had 5 plate appearances and 4 at-bats in opposition to Hill, going 2-for-4 with a double. You'll be able to’t actually draw an excessive amount of from that, however it does really feel like No. 99 needs to be extra snug than he was in opposition to Wacha. In keeping with Baseball Savant, Decide has a median exit velocity of 102.1 MPH in opposition to Hill.
What’s extra notable than the batter vs. pitcher splits is Hill’s present type. Over his final eight begins, Hill has pitched to a 5.65 ERA and has allowed a .778 OPS in opposition to throughout 36.2 innings of labor. Hill is a artful southpaw, however he’s not going to rack up strikeouts or overpower anyone at this level of his profession. Decide ought to have loads of attractiveness in his two or three appearances in opposition to Hill.
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And whereas Decide’s splits in opposition to right-handers are higher in 2022, he’s nonetheless posted a 1.002 OPS in opposition to lefties in 157 plate appearances this season.
It is going to at all times be exhausting to seek out optimistic anticipated worth when betting a prop like this in a historic second – bookmakers know they’re going to take a ton of bets on Decide to hit a house run – however that is about nearly as good a shopping for alternative as you’re going to get, contemplating the matchup.
At +225, oddsmakers are tagging Decide to hit a house run with an implied chance of roughly 31.8%. That’s not a foul guess, all issues thought of.
Yankees vs. Purple Sox decide
Aaron Decide to hit a house run +225 (BetMGM)
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