It isn’t fairly often that Max Scherzer closes as an underdog, however that may very well be the state of affairs on Monday evening when the Mets journey to Milwaukee to tackle Corbin Burnes and the Brewers.
On the time of writing the Mets are slight -104 underdogs on the street. Ought to the road maintain, will probably be simply the third time in 21 begins that Scherzer has closed as a ‘canine this season. The Mets are 1-2 in these video games (per Motion Labs).
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Mets vs. Brewers odds
Odds offered by BetMGM
Unfold: NYM -1.5 (+170) vs. MIL +1.5 (-200)
Moneyline: NYM (-105) vs. MIL (-115)
Whole: Over 6.5 (-115) | Beneath 6.5 (-105)
Mets vs. Brewers prediction
Though his general numbers this yr sparkle, Scherzer did endure a minor tough patch in mid-August. After going 10 straight begins with out permitting greater than two earned runs, Scherzer surrendered 4 runs in back-to-back begins in opposition to the Braves and Yankees. Rumors of his demise had been tremendously exaggerated although, as Scherzer bounced again with a pair of pearlers in opposition to the Rockies and Nationals at Citi Subject.
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Scherzer has posted a 2.08 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 30.6 Okay% in 11 begins since coming back from the injured checklist on July 5. And despite the fact that his 3.35 xFIP suggests he’s been a little bit bit lucky, every little thing else about his statline checks out.
It received’t be the simplest of matchups for Scherzer to navigate. Not solely is Burnes one of many few pitchers within the MLB that may go toe-to-toe with Mad Max, however the Brewers’ offense has scored 40 runs over their final seven video games. Milwaukee has received seven of its final 10 contests.
After profitable the Cy Younger in 2021, Burnes has barely missed a beat in 2022. The 27-year-old is 10-7 with a 2.97 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and .198 batting common in opposition to in 27 outings this season. Burnes’ StatCast profile additionally jumps off the web page as he ranks within the eightieth percentile in xwOBA, 77th percentile in common exit velocity, 96th percentile in whiff charge and 78th percentile in exhausting hit charge.
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The numbers all level to this being a pitchers’ duel and that's mirrored within the odds as the full for this contest sits at 6.5. However, as is usually the case, when every little thing factors in a single path, there can be worth going the opposite approach.
And it’s not a foul time to purchase on both of those offenses. Whereas the Brewers have scored 5.7 runs over their final seven contests, the Mets bats are additionally white scorching with 23 runs scored over their final 4 contests. The Mets personal the second-best wOBA and wRC+ in opposition to right-handed pitching this season.
Betting the over in a matchup between Max Scherzer and Corbin Burnes doesn't sound like a enjoyable time, however these offenses shouldn’t go quietly within the good evening on Monday.
Mets vs. Brewers MLB decide immediately
Over 6.5 (-115, BetMGM)
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