Monday’s standalone Premier League match between last-place Leicester Metropolis and Nineteenth-place Nottingham Forest is just not your typical relegation six-pointer.
Whereas most people anticipated Nottingham Forest to be combating for survival all season, Leicester Metropolis entered the season with an Over/Below of 51.5 factors, which might put them squarely in the course of the desk. Leicester has completed within the prime half of the desk in 5 of the final seven seasons, a run that features their miracle title win in 2015-16.
The Foxes are a -135 house favourite at BetMGM over Forest on the King Energy Stadium on Monday afternoon.
Is that quantity too wealthy on a crew that has one level and has allowed greater than three objectives per recreation via seven matches?
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Nottingham Forest vs. Leicester Metropolis prediction
What these odds do inform us is simply how little the market thinks of Nottingham Forest proper now. Sitting on 4 factors via seven matches, the Difficult Bushes personal the Premier League’s second-worst aim differential (-11) and anticipated aim differential (-7.6). Forest has allowed extra xG and photographs per 90 minutes than another crew within the Premier League this season.
The defensive woes of Nottingham Forest are echoed by Leicester Metropolis, although. The Foxes have been one of many least convincing defensive items within the Premier League in 2021-22, and that kind has carried over into the brand new marketing campaign. The Foxes rank 18th in stopping large scoring probabilities and fifteenth in anticipated objectives allowed per 90 via seven matches. Their goalkeeper, Danny Ward, has additionally actually struggled, permitting greater than seven objectives above anticipated up to now this season.
Usually, Leicester Metropolis’s assault — which is headlined by Youri Tielemans, Jamie Vardy, Patson Daka, James Maddison, Harvey Barnes, and Kelechi Iheanacho — would supply sufficient cowl for any defensive points, however that hasn’t been the case up to now this season. Leicester Metropolis ranks 14th in anticipated objectives created, 18th in photographs per 90 minutes, and Nineteenth in large scoring probabilities created. The Foxes have scored 10 objectives via seven matches, however that quantity appears slightly inflated, contemplating they’ve created simply 7.2 xG and have been concerned in a few blowouts the place the sport has opened up.
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Each of those groups are additionally going via some off-field conditions. A lot has been made from the truth that Forest signed 22 gamers in the summertime switch window, and it seems to be prefer it on the pitch, whereas Leicester did mainly nothing to strengthen an growing older squad. The Foxes have gone stale, and supervisor Brendan Rodgers is rumored to need out, however the membership doesn’t wish to fireplace him as a result of his contract is just not up but, they usually’d need to pay two managers. It’s an unpleasant state of affairs for Leicester.
Leicester Metropolis and Nottingham Forest each have loads of points to type via, however proper now, there’s actually not all that a lot that separates these two golf equipment from the midlands. In that case, it is smart to again the underdog at an enormous quantity on Monday.
Nottingham Forest vs. Leicester Metropolis decide
Nottingham Forest +340 (FanDuel)
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