A brand new Siena School ballot exhibits GOP gubernatorial candidate Rep. Lee Zeldin inside 11 factors of Gov. Kathy Hochul.
G.N.Miller/NYPost
Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin is getting ever nearer to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul forward of the Nov. 8 election — with a Siena School ballot launched Tuesday morning exhibiting her lead lower by a 3rd in latest weeks.
Hochul’s shrinking lead within the governor’s race was due partly to a shift in assist for Zeldin amongst voters within the New York Metropolis suburbs.
“During the last three weeks, Zeldin has narrowed the deficit he should overcome from 17 factors to 11 factors in making an attempt to grow to be the primary Republican in 20 years to win statewide,” Siena School pollster Steven Greenberg stated in a press launch.
“Nevertheless, with three weeks to go, Hochul maintains the higher hand.”
The incumbent held a 52% to 41% lead over her GOP challenger, in accordance with the brand new ballot, however “her five-point lead within the downstate suburbs in September has changed into a four-point lead for Zeldin in October,” stated Greenberg.
Different polling has proven Hochul’s lead evaporating into the only digits, with a Marist School ballot launched final week exhibiting the governor forward by simply 8 factors amongst New Yorkers who have been positively planning on casting ballots.
One other ballot exhibiting a single-digit benefit for the Democrat led RealClearPolitics to redefine the race as a “toss-up” final weekend regardless of Hochul’s massive money benefit in a state the place registered Democrats outnumber GOP voters by roughly two to at least one.
Males now favor the Lengthy Island pol to Hochul 49% to 44% — a nine-point swing since final month, when Hochul had a 48% to 44% edge, in accordance with the Siena ballot, which questioned 707 probably voters between Oct. 12 and 14 and had a margin of error of 4.9%.
Zeldin’s assist amongst Latino and Jewish voters jumped by 4 and 6 factors, respectively, although Hochul nonetheless has majority assist from each demographics within the ballot.
White voters favor Zeldin by a 47% to 46% margin — simply weeks after they favored Hochul by a 10-point margin in a Siena ballot launched Sept. 28.
His title recognition has additionally skyrocketed in latest weeks with simply 21% of voters now unfamiliar with Zeldin in comparison with 36% final month and 57% forward of the June main election.
But whereas Zeldin is gaining floor with some voters, he's bleeding assist with others whereas falling brief with the general numbers he must win, together with his assist amongst black voters dropping from 12% to 2% between September and October, in accordance with Siena.
The hole between voters having a positive versus unfavorable opinion — 37% to 41% — of him has additionally doubled to 4 factors from two factors within the final month amid a multimillion-dollar barrage of assault advertisements launched by Hochul.
Scathing assaults from Zeldin blasting Hochul over rising crime and alleged pay-to-play schemes involving marketing campaign donors look like doing restricted harm the place it'd matter most for him.
“Hochul maintains a commanding lead in New York Metropolis, 70-23%,” Greenberg famous, which is nicely under the 30% threshold specialists say Zeldin should cross within the 5 boroughs to win.
The ballot exhibits GOP lawyer basic nominee Michael Henry additionally gaining floor towards incumbent Letitia James, who's now up 51% to 40% after main him by 16 factors in September.
Incumbent Democratic Comptroller Tom DiNapoli and US Sen. Chuck Schumer have maintained leads of a minimum of 20% over GOP opponents Paul Rodriguez and Joe Pinion.
DiNapoli and Schumer look like succeeding the place Hochul and James are falling brief, Greenberg defined.
“One of many foremost causes Schumer and DiNapoli have wider leads than Hochul and James is unbiased voters. Independents favor Republicans Zeldin (9 factors) and Henry (10 factors), whereas favoring Democrats Schumer (8 factors) and DiNapoli (12 factors),” Greenberg stated within the press launch.
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