Getty Pictures (2); AP
The dangerous factor about being a profitable NFL head coach is outlasting your nice quarterback.
The Steelers’ Mike Tomlin and Seahawks’ Pete Carroll are discovering that actuality this season, as shifting on after Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson, respectively, is proving to be a curler coaster. It’s nothing the Patriots’ Invoice Belichick couldn’t have warned them about.
If discovering a franchise quarterback is the toughest factor to do in sports activities scouting – as some imagine – think about all of the issues that should go proper to search out two in a row. John Harbaugh, Andy Reid and Mike McCarthy don’t should think about.
These are the six lively coaches with probably the most profession wins in NFL historical past – all with no less than 139 and a grand whole amongst them of 1,121. To no shock, every of the six had the identical major quarterback for no less than 10 seasons.
“Longevity means you had a reasonably good quarterback,” one former NFL quarterbacks coach advised The Put up. “Who had longevity with out one?”
However how have they fared with out that quarterback? Not one of the six pairs are collectively any extra. Right here’s a more in-depth look after which some evaluation:
1. Invoice Belichick
219 of 291 wins with Tom Brady, 72-82 with anybody else
Over .500 with: Vinny Testaverde (16-15), Mac Jones (11-9), Matt Cassel (10-5)
2. Andy Reid
92 of 236 wins with Donovan McNabb, 144-87 with anybody else
Over .500 with: Patrick Mahomes (53-14), Alex Smith (50-26), Jeff Garcia (5-1), Michael Vick (18-16), A.J. Feeley (4-3), Koy Detmer (2-1), Nick Foles (1-0)
3. Mike Tomlin
136 of 155 wins with Ben Roethlisberger, 19-18-1 with anybody else
Over .500 with: Mason Rudolph (5-4-1), Landry Jones (3-2), Michael Vick (2-1), Dennis Dixon (2-1)
4. Pete Carroll
104 of 154 wins with Russell Wilson, 50-53 with anybody else
Over .500 with: Drew Bledsoe (26-20)
5. Mike McCarthy
98 of 146 wins with Aaron Rodgers, 48-40-1 with anybody else
Over .500 with: Brett Favre (21-11), Dak Prescott (13-9), Cooper Rush (4-0)
6. John Harbaugh
96 of 139 wins with Joe Flacco, 43-23 with anybody else
Over .500 with: Lamar Jackson (39-14)
What does it imply? Like everybody else on this listing apart from Belichick, Reid solely has one Tremendous Bowl win. However he's in rarefied air with Don Shula as the one head coaches to notch no less than 50 wins with three totally different quarterbacks, in response to NBC.
Harbaugh is ready up for the long run virtually in addition to Reid, and McCarthy needs to be in good place except proprietor Jerry Jones’ itchy finger hits the eject button.
However among the luster may come off of Tomlin – who has by no means had a dropping document in his first 15 seasons – if he doesn’t win early in rookie Kenny Pickett’s profession. Particularly after the Mitch Trubisky experiment failed by Week 4. The way more completed Belichick already is listening to that criticism much less three seasons after Brady left, 20 video games into Jones’ profession.
Carroll is staking a part of his legacy on Geno Smith – and searching surprisingly good to date – however he has much less to lose as a result of, at 71 years previous, he can retire if issues go awry with none suspicion. The 50-year-old Tomlin has no such luxurious.
An argument could possibly be made that there needs to be a seventh coach listed. Sean Payton (142 of 152 wins with Drew Brees, 17-12 with anybody else) stepped down from the Saints within the offseason, only one season after Brees’ retirement. Payton made it clear he isn’t retiring. What he actually ought to have mentioned was: I’m not going to danger my popularity on an unknown quarterback. My subsequent job may have a ready-made star, like McCarthy acquired with Prescott.
Extra credit score to Reid, who developed two quarterbacks and maximized a 3rd’s capacity after others wrote Smith off. And to Harbaugh who developed two. No inheritance.
Rookie roulette
How would Rene Descartes, Immanuel Kant and Gottfried Leibniz have dealt with the NFL Draft?
A guess: The three philosophers recognized for his or her work within the actual sciences would have been as baffled as any scout, coach or normal supervisor by the inexact science of the NFL Draft.
4 weeks into the 2022 season, the rookie dashing chief was the seventh working again taken, the rookie tackles chief was chosen after the tv broadcasts begin taking industrial breaks throughout choose bulletins and the perfect offensive sort out wasn’t even his staff’s first choose on the place.
It’s not a shock to see the Jaguars’ Travon Walker, the Lions’ Aidan Hutchinson or the Jets’ Sauce Gardner – three of the primary 4 picks – taking part in at a excessive degree instantly. However the equation will get difficult sooner than the primary spherical ends.
Here's a have a look at 5 of probably the most stunning and 5 of probably the most disappointing rookies to date:
Stunning
RT Abraham Lucas, Seahawks (No. 72 total): After drafting left sort out Charles Cross at No. 9, the Seahawks determined to go together with rookie bookends. Certain sufficient, it’s the third-rounder Lucas who's the highest-graded rookie sort out by Professional Soccer Focus. He has allowed three quarterback hits (zero sacks) on 152 pass-blocking snaps.
RB Dameon Pierce, Texans (No. 107 total): Pierce subscribes to the idea: “Be the hammer, not the nail.” He runs prefer it, initiating after which working via contact with defenders. Possibly he can inherit the Titans’ Derrick Henry’s crown at any time when the King is completed bruising the AFC South.
CB Jack Jones, Patriots (No. 121 total): He actually doesn’t lack confidence, saying it was “disrespectful” for Aaron Rodgers “to throw an out route on me” as a result of if it’s full then “I’m no good.” Jones’ snap rely has elevated each sport, and he shouldn’t depart the sector in any respect after his pick-six on Rodgers.
WR Romeo Doubs, Packers (No. 132 total): Simply as Davante Adams as soon as changed Jordy Nelson as Rodgers’ go-to receiver, somebody needed to change Adams. Doubs (19 receptions for 184 yards and two touchdowns) seems just like the early favourite, regardless of dropping a possible game-winning landing towards the Patriots (the Packers received in extra time). Catching passes from a Corridor of Famer is an efficient technique to earn an enormous second contract.
OLB Malcolm Rodriguez, Lions (No. 188 total): There needs to be one brilliant spot on the worst scoring protection within the NFL. It’s Rodriguez, who leads all rookies with 33 tackles and was PFF’s third-highest-graded rookie even in a 48-45 loss to the Seahawks. He's displaying nice instincts.
Disappointing
OLB Kayvon Thibodeaux, Giants (No. 5 total): A surprisingly quick begin by the Giants has taken some stress off Thibodeaux, who missed the primary two video games due a sprained MCL and has just one quarterback hit (plus a fumble restoration) in two video games. Thibodeaux acknowledged “it’s time” for his first sack.
LG Kenyon Inexperienced, Texans (No. 15 total): After getting by for 3 weeks, Inexperienced had a nightmare Week 4, permitting seven pressures and committing three penalties on 57 snaps. He entered the NFL as a a lot better run blocker, however he’ll have to be multi-dimensional to validate his draft standing.
WR Treylon Burks, Titans (No. 18 total): Not solely does Burks have to dwell as much as his draft standing, he additionally will likely be often called the participant traded for A.J. Brown. Brown has 25 catches for 404 yards and a landing for the Eagles; Burks has 10 for 129 and no touchdowns. The run-heavy Titans have to throw deep to maintain defenses sincere, and Burks’ foot harm received’t assist get that carried out.
S Dax Hill, Bengals (No. 31 total): If the plan is to interchange free-agent-to-be Jessie Bates with Hill subsequent season, the Bengals would possibly need to get Hill some expertise as a rookie. Sure, Bates and Vonn Bell make a prime security duo, however Hill must carve out a task in sub packages. He has performed 15 snaps in 4 video games – fewest on offense or protection of any non-injured first-rounder.
RB Kenneth Walker, Seahawks (No. 41 total): Simply when it appeared as if the Seahawks had been prepared to surrender on 2018 first-round bust Rashaad Penny – who was buried behind the now-retired Chris Carson for 3 ½ seasons – Penny got here to life. It has rendered Walker (15 carries for 58 yards in three video games) as a spare half, very similar to Penny was when not injured.
School soccer sport of the week
No. 8 Tennessee at No. 25 LSU, Saturday, Midday, ESPN
Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker won't be capable to bounce excessive three quarterbacks within the 2023 draft class – Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Alabama’s Bryce Younger and Kentucky’s Will Levis – however he may prime the following tier.
Two numbers stand out: A 71.7 completion share and nil interceptions on 113 throws. Final day out, Hooker threw for 349 yards and ran for 112 towards Florida with out his prime receiver Cedric Tillman on the sector.
“There are numerous straightforward throws as a result of the offense is so good, however there may be accuracy there, too, as a result of it may be straightforward, however you continue to should make the throws,” one scout mentioned. “He’s super-productive with a great arm and athleticism.”
One large query within the scouting group: What occurred to LSU receiver Kayshon Boutte? A preseason high-first-round projection, Boutte has 11 catches for 97 yards and no touchdowns in 4 video games. LSU produced studs Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase within the 2020 and 2021 drafts, respectively, however that was earlier than a training change to Brian Kelly, who lately addressed the impact of Boutte’s poor numbers on his draft inventory.
“All these guys that make choices about who the perfect receivers are within the nation are nonetheless going to take a look at Kayshon and go, ‘That’s a very, actually good vast receiver,’” Kelly advised reporters. “Numbers received’t dictate the place he will get drafted. It’s his capacity to proceed to play the sport on the highest degree. If you activate the movie, he’s working full pace, he’s beating the fellows, and the ball didn’t come to him for no matter motive.”
With consideration referred to as to it, count on LSU to feed Boutte, if for no different motive than so LSU’s prime receiver recruits don’t begin to look elsewhere.
Parting ideas
1. I’ve by no means been a believer within the Regulation of Averages. Extra of a Murphy’s Regulation subscriber myself.
How lengthy till Harbaugh joins me? After dropping their closing six video games of final season to fall from prime staff within the AFC to lacking the playoffs, the Ravens had been imagined to be higher this season simply on the premise of luck.
5 of these six losses by a complete of eight factors. One was in extra time and two had been after Harbaugh’s analytics-charged choices to go for the successful two-point conversion backfired and have become one-point losses. How may it worsen?
Nicely, the Ravens are 2-2 after trailing for a complete of 14 seconds of their two losses. They’ve truly trailed for extra time (8:53) of their two wins.
Harbaugh once more got here beneath hearth final week for the analytics behind passing up a tie-breaking area purpose together with his offense on the 2-yard line on fourth down within the fourth quarter towards the Payments. His level was that taking a 23-20 lead simply means the damaging Josh Allen has 4 downs as a substitute of three to maneuver the ball – virtually guaranteeing a area purpose and perhaps the successful landing.
It could be a tough promote to defensive gamers to confess you don’t belief them to get a cease. Take emotions out of the equation, although, and it’s arduous to argue with Harbaugh that area objectives don’t beat nice quarterbacks and defenses don’t get stops typically sufficient in that late-game spot.
2. You probably have ever obtained the flawed small package deal from Amazon – who hasn’t? – then that the return coverage normally permits the shopper to maintain, donate or throw away the wrong merchandise. Nicely, I ponder if Amazon is asking for any a refund after airing a Broncos-Colts sport Thursday that was extensively pilloried on social media for its boring, sloppy, punt-happy, touchdown-less play.
Amazon’s debut of “Thursday Night time Soccer” – a package deal for which it's paying greater than $1 billion per 12 months – allegedly set a document for Prime subscription sign-ups over a three-hour interval. Nicely, that was for Chiefs-Chargers. Will there be a press launch subsequent week concerning the variety of cancellations precipitated in a three-hour interval by Bears-Commanders?
There’s simply not sufficient good matchups most weeks to replenish the three Sunday home windows, Thursday evening and Monday evening. In contrast to Sunday, the Thursday and Monday schedules can’t be flexed for higher matchups because the season progresses. A minimum of that Jets-Jaguars matchup on Dec. 22 has attraction now!
3. The members of a deep preseason area for Comeback Participant of the 12 months – Saquon Barkley (Giants), Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), Derrick Henry (Titans), Chase Younger (Commanders), the duo of Michael Thomas and Jameis Winston (Saints) – ought to all perceive if the award goes to Commanders rookie working again Brian Robinson regardless of his stats.
Robinson returned to the follow area Wednesday, simply 38 days after he was shot throughout what police referred to as a theft or carjacking try. He underwent surgical procedure on his proper leg.
“I suppose I’m the king of adversity,” he mentioned. “I’ve … handled a lot adversity in my life. That is simply one other state of affairs the place I simply acquired to be stronger than what I’m up towards.” He added of his hospital keep, “That was most likely the bottom level I’ve ever been in my life. The one factor I keep in mind is simply receiving all of the love and everyone reaching out to me, simply spreading the love. That was all I wanted on the time.”
The Commanders have three weeks to guage Robinson earlier than deciding whether or not so as to add him to the lively roster or shut him down for the season. Barring a well being setback, he could possibly be their beginning working again earlier than too lengthy.
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