Squeezed between China and Russia, Mongolia’s herders feel pinch

Mongolian tent-dwellers face rising hardship amid skyrocketing power prices and falling livestock costs.

Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia – Dulamsuren Demberel, a 58-year-old herder who lives an eight-hour drive from Mongolia’s capital Ulaanbaatar, finds it more durable every month to make the family funds work.

Costs of flour and rice, among the many primary staples Mongolia’s herders can not produce themselves, have soared because of the warfare in Ukraine, with total inflation working at an eye-watering 14.5 %.

Even worse has been the 40 % soar within the worth of coal, in addition to shortages latest protests have blamed on corrupt officers’ alleged theft of 385,000 tonnes of coal on the market in China.

In Mongolia, the place winter temperatures usually dip under -35°C, about 60 % of the inhabitants lives in gers – conventional tents – that aren't linked to the nation’s Soviet-era heating and water grid, however as a substitute heated utilizing coal-powered stoves. Multiple-quarter of households are made up of herders like Demberel, who relocate their flocks and gers a number of instances per 12 months.

Mongolia, the place winter temperatures usually dip under -35°C, is grappling with skyrocketing power costs [Courtesy of Antonio Graceffo]

“Final time once I went to the soum, they weren’t even promoting coal,” Demberel, who shares her ger together with her husband, her second-eldest son and his spouse and 5 youngsters, advised Al Jazeera, referring to the provincial district close by.

In the meantime, Demberel, whose husband’s poor well being leaves him unable to work, finds it laborious to justify making the trek to Ulaanbaatar to promote sheep, wool and milk, the costs of that are in decline at the same time as gasoline costs soar. Mongolia produces oil however, with out a cost-effective means to refine it into gasoline, exports virtually all of it to China.

Whereas exports to China have declined in latest months as Mongolia’s financial system slows beneath strict COVID-19 curbs, gasoline costs have risen as a lot as 65 % since Russia launched its warfare in Ukraine in February.

“Except you promote greater than 30 sheep or one thing, it’s not value it, although we are able to promote within the metropolis at the next worth,” Demberel mentioned.

“It’s too far. Paying for gasoline and different bills would simply make it the identical as promoting it within the soum, except you promote loads.”

Mongolia, one of many world’s most sparsely-populated nations, is being squeezed economically by China and Russia, its two big neighbours, which have traditionally dominated its huge landmass.

Whereas Russia’s warfare in Ukraine has brought on power costs to skyrocket, China’s weakening financial system has dampened commerce at the same time as some Mongolians query their authorities’s export of coal and different useful assets to their southern neighbour.

ger stove
Many Mongolian households are heated utilizing coal-powered stoves [Courtesy of Antonio Graceffo]

Mongolia depends upon Russia for electrical energy, gasoline, aviation gas, liquefied petroleum gasoline (LPG) and diesel, about 60 % of which comes from its northern neighbour.

China accounts for greater than 80 % of Mongolia’s whole exports, 60 % of imports and greater than 40 % of its gross home product (GDP). Mongolia’s dependence on its larger neighbours is instantly apparent on visiting any retailer, the place packaging is roofed with Chinese language and Russian writing.

“In fact, we’re absolutely depending on China and Russia,” Narangerel, a 57-year-old businessman in Ulaanbaatar, advised Al Jazeera.

“We’re depending on China when it comes to our financial system, and we rely on Russia for electrical energy. Additionally, we purchase 90 % of our coal and petrol from Russia. All different shopper items come from China.”

Mongolia gained independence in 1921, after practically 300 years of rule by China’s Qing Dynasty. Till the collapse of communism within the early 90s, the socialist Mongolian Individuals’s Republic operated as a satellite tv for pc state of the Soviet Union.

Former Mongolian territories, Tuva, Buryatia and Altai are a part of immediately’s Russian Federation, whereas China controls the geographic space of Southern Mongolia because the Interior Mongolia Autonomous Area.

Whereas Mongolia is impartial, Moscow and Beijing proceed to exert important affect over the nation. After the Dalai Lama’s go to to Ulaanbaatar in 2016, China punished Mongolia by closing off the border. Though he's the religious head of the Tibetan Buddhist religion, practised by nearly all of Mongolians, the Dalai Lama has not been invited again.

ger
Dulamsuren Demberel’s ger is house to 9 family members, together with herself [Courtesy of Antonio Graceffo]

Mongolia’s financial system shrank by 4.4 %, prompting companies to put off tens of hundreds of employees. Unemployment peaked at 8.5 % in April of 2021 earlier than declining to five.4 % within the third quarter of this 12 months. Herders weren't thought-about unemployed, though many couldn't get to the town to promote meat or milk through the top of the pandemic.

Whereas the financial system has rebounded, the restoration stays shaky as a consequence of China’s financial slowdown and the unsure international financial outlook.

Mining income, which accounts for greater than 20 % of GDP, dropped by practically one-quarter within the first two months of 2022, in contrast with the earlier 12 months.

Regardless of rebounding since October, useful resource export revenues stay nicely under pre-pandemic ranges, with iron ore exports to China, one of many largest money-makers, down 38 % within the first eleven months of this 12 months.

“We used to export fluorite to Ukraine, Russia and China. Now, we’ve stopped exporting to Ukraine. And since the border is closed with China, we are able to’t export to China,” M Uuganbaatar, a 40-year-old government director at mining enterprise Bayan Jonsh Co, advised Al Jazeera.

Beforehand, China accounted for 70 % of Uuganbaatar’s enterprise.

“Because of inflation, transportation and logistics, prices have elevated,” he mentioned. The one upside is that his exports are bought in United States dollars, which he can use to hedge towards a declining tugrik, the native forex.

Thus far this 12 months, the tugrik has misplaced about 18 % of its worth towards the greenback.

Oyuntsetseg Togoodorj, a kindergarten trainer in Ulaanbaatar who earns a wage of 800,000 tugriks ($234) a month, mentioned feeding her 4 youngsters is turning into more and more troublesome.

“200 thousand tugrik ($59) a month, was sufficient to purchase all we wanted earlier than however now it needs to be not less than 600,000 ($176) to make barely sufficient to outlive,” Togoodorj advised Al Jazeera. “For the entire winter, we used to spend 400,000 ($117) for meat. Now it's 800,000 ($235).”

Along with elevated grocery payments, she can also be coping with increased college charges. “We’re paying 4 instances what we used to pay final 12 months.”

Man holding horse as a boy on the ground pulls the reins towards him. There are another three horses. They are on grassland with sloping hills and some forest behind them
Multiple-quarter of Mongolian households are made up of herders [Courtesy of Antonio Graceffo]

Anger and frustration over Mongolia’s dependence on its highly effective neighbours shouldn't be laborious to search out.

Many Mongolians imagine China and Russia discourage the development of power-generation vegetation and factories in Mongolia for concern of dropping their affect over the nation. In a single notable supply of tensions, Russia has opposed the development of a dam and hydropower era plant alongside the Uldza River, claiming it will harm the ecology of Lake Baikal, which lies on the Russian facet of the border.

Whereas Moscow has protested the venture on environmental grounds, many Mongolians imagine its opposition is de facto motivated by a want to maintain their nation subservient.

“Traditionally Russia claims to be our brother however they appear to maintain us beneath thumb,” Ariunjargal Andrei, a 52-year-old development engineer, advised Al Jazeera. “We purchase our electrical energy from Russia, so it isn’t helpful for them if we construct a hydropower plant. Subsequently, they’re not permitting us to construct it, claiming it’ll have a detrimental impact on Lake Baikal.”

“Russia shouldn't be permitting us to construct the Enkh Gol energy station,” Narangerel mentioned. China is … we're getting so many loans that we're in actually critical hazard.”

For a lot of Mongolians corresponding to Narangerel, the reply to the nation’s financial troubles lies in reaching larger independence.

“We’re not a producing nation, we’re shoppers,” he mentioned.

Batmunkh, a 43-year-old accountant on the nation’s fifth largest financial institution, Khas Financial institution, who, like many Mongolians goes by one identify, summed up the nation’s financial issues merely: “The central reason behind the success or failure of the Mongolian financial system is the Chinese language financial system and China’s anti-COVID coverage.”

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