The Padres have reworked into among the many most aggressive organizations within the majors. Beneath A.J. Preller, they've turn into a high-payroll, star-driven crew unafraid to expend prospects to amass what they need at a time when most franchises hoard their greatest farmhands as if they're all successful lottery tickets.
That philosophy didn't result in even a .500 file, a lot much less a playoff spot in 2021, when San Diego arguably was the majors’ most disappointing crew. This 12 months the Padres by no means acquired an at-bat from final season’s NL MVP third-place finisher, Fernando Tatis Jr. He suffered a fracture in his proper wrist doubtless incurred from an offseason motorbike accident and — on the point of returning — he was suspended in August when he examined optimistic for an anabolic steroid.
By then, although, this model of the Padres had made one of many greatest trades in historical past, just about emptying the perfect of their system to acquire Juan Soto — and Josh Bell — a day after acquiring Josh Hader. This time the star-power led San Diego to its first playoff berth in a 162-game season since 2006. And this type of star energy makes them significantly harmful in a brief sequence. With the assistance of a scout, a coach and an govt with a number of expertise finding out the Padres, let’s drill down on the problem the Mets are going through over the weekend at Citi Subject:
The 1-2 punch
Are we certain Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom give the Mets the perfect beginning combo on this sequence? We're not speaking traditionally. However proper now. The Mets have been 10-10 in video games began by their duo from when deGrom got here off the injured checklist on Aug. 2 and neither rose to the problem final weekend in Atlanta.
In the meantime, Recreation 1 starter Yu Darvish and Blake Snell have been excelling. Darvish has not pitched fewer than six innings since Could 13. Starting on June 7 when Darvish shut out the Mets over seven innings, the righty over 20 begins has a 2.68 ERA, a .197 batting common in opposition to and a 149-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That stretch contains one other seven-inning outing, through which he allowed one run, in opposition to the Mets. The scout described Darvish as “essentially the most proficient nibbler on the planet.”
This has lengthy been the criticism of Darvish — that he has particularly an elite fastball (even at 36, he averaged 95 mph this 12 months, tied for eleventh amongst qualifiers), however pitches as if he by no means desires the bat to hit the ball. So he makes use of his broad assortment of pitches to attempt to deceive.
“It isn't a snug at-bat,” the coach mentioned. “The hitters know he has nice stuff. As a result of he won't deviate from working the sides, the secret is to get his pitch depend up and possibly get him out of the sport an inning or two earlier. However he isn't wild [eighth-lowest walk percentage at 4.8 percent]. He has turn into very cutter-reliant [35.3 percent] and it's a good pitch. However I'll by no means cease believing he ought to use his four-seamer extra.”
Snell shut out the Mets over 5 innings on July 23. That started a 14-start, season-closing spree through which he had a 2.19 ERA, a .209 batting common and a 105-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 78 innings. Snell as a Ray was famously pulled from World Collection Recreation 6 in 2020, although he was dominating the Dodgers, as a result of Tampa Bay caught to its perception to not expose him to a lineup for a 3rd time. Los Angeles instantly rallied after Snell’s exit to clinch the title.
San Diego has been extra open-minded with Snell, who went seven innings twice in his remaining 4 begins, a interval when he had a 0.72 ERA and .411 OPS in opposition to. “They're letting Snell go and I can see why — he's holding his stuff into the sixth and seventh innings,” the scout mentioned. “The rate continues to be there, the command, the boldness, he’s nonetheless touchdown that breaking ball.”
The manager mentioned, “He averages 96 [mph] together with his fastball and 90 together with his slider. When that slider is on, he’s among the many hardest pitchers to hit within the majors.”
Throw it arduous … and over the plate
The scout mentioned this concerning the Padres’ offensive strategy: “The theme of the crew, it feels to me, is that they're attempting to stroll. After we play them, it feels all their large innings are constructed on walks.”
The numbers don’t lie. No crew drew 5 walks in a recreation extra usually than San Diego’s 55, they usually have been 40-15 in these video games — the .733 successful share the fifth-best when drawing that many in a recreation.
This was their model even with Luke Voit. It's significantly so since Voit was a part of the commerce that introduced Bell and Soto. The foremost league stroll price is 8.2 %. The Padres have 9 usually used hitters above that. Soto led the majors at 20.4, 19.3 since becoming a member of the Padres.
One of many keys to the sequence is retaining leadoff man Jurickson Profar off base in entrance of Soto and Manny Machado. Which means not strolling him. Profar hit .243, however walked 11.1 % of the time (nineteenth greatest amongst qualifiers).
Total as a crew, the Padres are good at not chasing pitches out of the strike zone. The coach mentioned in a textual content with a number of exclamation factors: “Assault the zone!!!!”
A technique to do that is to have the ability to throw arduous. The Padres’ .636 OPS in opposition to pitches 95 mph and tougher was twenty eighth within the majors. So, clearly the Mets’ key trinity of Scherzer, deGrom and Edwin Diaz matches into this. However may hard-throwing relievers resembling Trevor Could and Drew Smith have worth on this sequence?
The offensive large two
They by no means received the large three of Machado, Soto and Tatis. However a lineup that has Soto hitting second behind Profar adopted by Machado has a powerhouse No. 2-3 within the lineup.
For the reason that cleanup hitter vs. the Mets righty rotation is prone to be Jake Cronenworth or maybe Bell, then the flexibility to drive the remainder of a lineup that's simply meh to beat them is vital. However our panel of three was unanimous about if it comes right down to Machado vs. Soto, with the coach synthesizing for the group: “Don’t let Machado beat you.”
That's as a result of this Soto has not been the Soto of 2019-21 with the Nationals, particularly since being traded Aug. 2 to the Padres. He hit .236 with a .778 OPS for San Diego, although nonetheless with 44 walks and 34 strikeouts — he simply doesn’t chase a lot. Did he get into unhealthy habits enjoying with a horrible Nationals membership? Did he really feel stress to justify rejecting a 15-year, $440 million extension, which led to Washington buying and selling him to San Diego?
It's a harmful recreation to imagine he won't rise to the second. Within the 2019 postseason, Soto hit 5 homers with a .927 OPS in 17 video games to assist the Nationals win the championship. He received the House Run Derby in July with everybody figuring out he was simply days away from being traded.
There may be maybe no rule change that Buck Showalter has disliked greater than the necessary three-batter rule for relievers. He has talked about usually that, amongst different gadgets, since you may’t simply have a lefty reliever face a lefty batter, that lefty relievers higher be a minimum of competent in opposition to righties, too.
Until Mets starters can hand off on to Diaz, this sequence goes to drive Showalter into pondering the scenario he loathes. Soto has a .942 OPS vs. righties, however .701 vs. lefties. So it would be best to usher in a lefty reliever to face him, and the Mets duo of David Peterson and Joely Rodriguez have held Soto (small pattern measurement alert) to 1-for-9, although with 4 walks. The coach appreciated lefty-on-lefty change-ups in opposition to Soto in case you can hold it down (can Rodriguez?) and the form of two-strike slider Peterson can provide. However Soto even left-on-left forces pitchers to throw strikes, and Rodriguez and Peterson can battle command.
However the issue is that if it's a must to go away within the lefty by rule. Machado has an .855 OPS vs. southpaws and his 12 homers tie him for fifth within the majors (with teammate Brandon Drury). If Machado is main off a late inning, you may think about that Showalter would go to Adam Ottavino, who has held righties to a .161 batting common and .479 OPS this 12 months and in his profession has held Machado hitless in eight at-bats with three strikeouts. However can Ottavino be trusted in opposition to Soto, who he has by no means confronted? Lefties beat up the righty with a .301 common and .838 OPS this 12 months.
Seth Lugo has stuffed in because the righty that Showalter trusts most in opposition to lefties within the set-up corp (Soto is 3-for-10 with a homer and 4 walks vs. Lugo, although). You possibly can count on to see Diaz within the eighth, particularly if Soto and Machado are due up (Soto is 2-for-8 in opposition to Diaz, each hits are homers).
The velocity (non) issue
The lack of Brandon Nimmo to develop into an ready base stealer and the attainable absence of Starling Marte for this sequence could be a killer for the Mets, as a result of the Padres are horrible at stopping the operating recreation. They threw out simply 16 % of baserunners this season — 6 % worse than any crew.
Throwing is just not a power of San Diego catchers Jorge Alfaro, Luis Campusano and Austin Nola. Runners have been 32 out of 38 in steal makes an attempt in opposition to the Padres scheduled three starters for this sequence — Darvish, Snell and Joe Musgrove (12 out of 14 vs. Darvish).
Francisco Lindor has to get on base and use his legs and Terrance Gore turns into much more of a weapon within the late video games.
Conversely, San Diego hardly makes use of the steal (49 successes have been second fewest within the NL). Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim is the principle risk (12 steals), however Machado will take a bag if opponents don’t concentrate (9 out of 10 on steals).
Which Hader?
Hader opened this season wanting as if he would have the season that Diaz in the end did. The lefty didn't permit a run in his first 19 outings ,and thru June, Hader had a 1.09 ERA, .119 batting common in opposition to and had struck out 41 of the 91 hitters he had confronted because the Brewers nearer.
Nonetheless, Hader was shakier for Milwaukee after that, was traded to the Padres on Aug. 1 and immediately crumbled, permitting 12 runs in his first seven outings with seven walks and eight strikeouts. He misplaced his closing function briefly. However he regained the place over his remaining 12 outings with a 0.79 ERA and a .128 batting common in opposition to, however not fairly the strikeout dominance of his heights (14 of 41 batters).
The scout mentioned late within the season Hader’s velocity and command returned — notably his fastball on the prime of the zone and talent to get his slider to the again foot of righty hitters. In that interval through which Hader received his act again collectively, he confronted 15 lefty hitters, who went 1-for-13 (a single), with two walks and 7 strikeouts. You need as many righty hitters in opposition to him as attainable.
This was purported to be Darin Ruf’s late-inning pinch-hit function — and the Mets didn't rule him out of constructing it again from what the Mets termed a neck pressure. Ruf has solely confronted Hader twice, however walked and homered. Do the Mets belief Francisco Alvarez to take this type of at-bat?
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