Final weekend’s school soccer slate was one for the ages. Not solely did we see Tennessee topple Alabama in an all-time basic, however our ugly underdog got here by way of with a canopy as Charlotte saved it respectable in opposition to UAB in a 34-20 loss. We tip our cap to the 49ers and now head north to Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, Va., for a showdown between BYU and Liberty.
Contemporary off a 52-35 loss to Arkansas, BYU is a 7-point highway favourite in opposition to Liberty. That is just too many factors.
Don’t look now, however the Liberty Flames (6-1) have been spectacular this season. Liberty’s solely loss got here by a single level to Wake Forest on the highway, although the remainder of the schedule doesn’t precisely learn like a murderers’ row. Nonetheless, wins over Southern Miss, UAB and Previous Dominion are nothing to scoff at for a group like Liberty, who may get quarterback Charlie Brewer (who beforehand performed for Baylor and Utah) again within the fold for the primary time since Week 1.
Brewer’s presence can be an actual increase for an offense that ranks 119th in passing success price, 98th in dashing success price and 94th in ending drives. These numbers could look like they spell bother — they usually’re definitely ugly — however with Brewer beneath heart the Flames ought to have some success in opposition to a Cougars protection that’s been a catastrophe in 2022.
BYU ranks one hundred and fifteenth in Defensive Success Price and a hundred and twenty fifth in Success Price in opposition to the run and are rated because the 82nd-best unit within the nation by SP+. Not solely have the Cougars struggled to comprise robust offenses like Oregon and Arkansas, however weak groups like Utah State and Wyoming had a few of their finest performances of the season in opposition to the Cougars.
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Whereas it’s weak spot vs. weak spot when Liberty has the ball, the other is true when BYU is on offense.
Liberty spent most of this season taking over pedestrian offenses, however the Flames have definitely handed the sniff check to this point. Liberty ranks ninth in defensive success price, fifteenth in passing success price and 14th in dashing success price. It’s honest to recommend that these numbers are inflated on account of high quality of competitors, however Professional Soccer Focus nonetheless grades the Flames because the Twenty ninth-best protection within the nation and the Tenth-best in opposition to the run.
BYU’s dashing assault, which ranks 113th by success price, ought to wrestle to place star quarterback Jaren Corridor in good spots, which suggests we may see a scenario the place Corridor must put the Cougars on his again to get a canopy. He’s able to doing simply that, but it surely is not going to be a cakewalk in opposition to this well-regarded protection.
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Oftentimes in school soccer we’ll see strains get inflated off of public notion when two applications like Liberty and BYU meet. Bookmakers know that they’ll get motion on the Cougars based mostly off of that alone, to allow them to shade the road a little bit bit and never have to fret an excessive amount of.
That appears to be the case right here because the Cougars are being overrated in opposition to a pesky Liberty group that ought to stand an opportunity to drag off an upset on the energy of its protection.
Take Liberty +7.
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