The school soccer slate Saturday is an absolute doozy, headlined by No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 2 Tennessee at Samford Stadium in Athens, Ga. However whereas a lot of the nation could have its eyes mounted on the Bulldogs and Volunteers within the late afternoon, ugly underdog connoisseurs like myself shall be centered on a really totally different recreation happening at Nippert Stadium.
After making it to the School Soccer Playoff final season, Cincinnati has taken an anticipated step again in 2022. The Bearcats are nonetheless a decent 6-2 and are one of many favorites to win the AAC Championship, however they will’t afford one other slip up after shedding to Central Florida final week. That consequence knocked the Bearcats out of the High 25.
Cincinnati is anticipated to bounce again this week — the Bearcats are 18.5-point favorites over Navy — however there are causes to consider the Midshipmen can preserve this recreation tight.
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Navy bumped its report to 3-5 with an time beyond regulation win over Temple final week, however the Midshipmen had been dealt a major blow after they misplaced beginning quarterback Tai Lavatai to a season-ending harm.
The silver lining right here is that the drop-off from Lavatai to Xavier Arline shouldn’t be too dramatic given Navy’s triple-option offensive scheme.
There isn't any secret to Navy’s offensive recreation plan. The Midshipmen wish to trudge down the sector by way of the triple-option. Navy has the third-highest rush price within the nation and ranks 104th in seconds per play. It is a gradual, methodical offense.
On paper, Cincinnati’s protection ought to match up effectively with Navy. The Bearcats rank Fifteenth in yards per rush allowed, Twenty second in dashing success price and thirty fifth in line of defense yards. Cincinnati is the Twenty second-best tackling protection within the nation, per Professional Soccer Focus.
When you can provide Cincinnati’s protection the sting as the most effective unit within the matchup, the Navy protection deserves loads of respect, too. The Midshipmen rank twenty third in dashing success price, third in line of defense yards and boast the Fifteenth-best havoc score. The Midshipmen might wrestle stopping the move, however Cincinnati’s aerial assault ranks 59th in success price and the Bearcats are 79th within the nation at ending drives.
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The numbers already make Navy seem like an attractive underdog at this value, however what’s most interesting is the stylistic matchup. It's all the time a good suggestion to contemplate a guess on service academies after they’re catching greater than two touchdowns.
Since Navy runs a triple-option and runs the ball greater than nearly every other staff within the nation, you recognize the clock shall be transferring. That can restrict possessions and shorten the sport, which is all the time an excellent factor for underdogs catching factors. The numbers again up that principle: Since 2005, the three service academies have gone 43-26-1 (61.4 p.c) as underdogs of a minimum of 14 factors (per Motion Community).
And another feather in Navy’s cap as an unpleasant underdog is the overall. The Over/Beneath is ready at 44 factors at the moment and the Beneath has already taken cash to get it there, so the market is telling us that this could possibly be a rock struggle, which, as soon as once more, ought to swimsuit the Midshipmen.
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