In his sixth run for the Nigerian presidency, Atiku Abubakar is preaching a future as productive because the nation’s previous when he was vp. Can he succeed?
Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s important opposition get together’s presidential candidate, has all the time had an urge for food for giant battles.
Throughout his tenure as Nigeria’s vp between 1999 and 2007, Abubakar opposed the wave of adoption of Islamic regulation throughout components of the nation’s Muslim-majority north, the highest-profile Muslim politician from the area to take action.
He additionally backed opposition to a invoice to amend the structure and elongate the tenure of then-President Olusegun Obasanjo – a transfer that will scuttle Abubakar’s ambition to succeed his boss.
“He was seen as divisive and disruptive throughout his time as Obasanjo’s vp, continuously in search of to carve a bigger position for the workplace,” Ikemesit Effiong, head of analysis at SBM Intelligence, a Lagos-based geopolitical danger advisory consultancy, advised Al Jazeera.
This month, Abubakar will likely be combating the most important battle of his political profession: to succeed Muhammadu Buhari, whose second four-year presidential time period ends this 12 months.
It's the 76-year-old’s report sixth try to occupy the very best workplace within the land, with three of his earlier losses coming at primaries.
“We've by no means been this divided alongside a variety of fault strains both north, south or Muslim and Christian,” the Individuals’s Democratic Occasion (PDP) candidate, whose slogan is “unifier”, stated on the marketing campaign path this month. “I'm going to present each a part of this nation a way of belonging.”
From the previous to the current
If elected on February 25, a troublesome job awaits Abubakar.
Other than coping with Boko Haram’s 13-year armed marketing campaign within the northeast, he must deal with rising insecurity as a number of armed teams function throughout the nation, together with secessionists within the southeast and gangs of bandits elsewhere in northwest and central Nigeria.
Africa’s largest financial system can also be in a deep funk, having two recessions in 5 years, partly resulting from coverage missteps and the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic.
As many as 133 million Nigerians – the inhabitants of France and the UK mixed – stay in poverty. The naira is now 460 to the US greenback at official charges, nearly 4 occasions worse than its worth when Abubakar left workplace in 2007.
Throughout the Obasanjo years, Nigeria notably secured $18bn in debt aid – half of its burden on the time – from the Paris Membership in 2005. Two-thirds of its income is at present going in the direction of repaying its debt, which may attain $172bn this 12 months.
Abubakar, who headed the nationwide financial council underneath an administration answerable for Nigeria’s highest gross home product (GDP) enhance since its civil struggle led to 1970, sees himself as the proper candidate to carry again the wonderful previous many are aching for.
His expertise in public service and as a profitable businessman in agriculture, oil and schooling for many years has ready him for the tough days forward, Abubakar insists.
He has promised to put aside $10bn “to empower girls and younger males in enterprise” in addition to guarantee fiscal federalism and devolution of powers to the states. Tackling insecurity is high of his agenda, too.
His critics, nevertheless, allege that Abubakar has all the time had an urge for food for corruption too, from his time as deputy chief of customs within the Eighties. They are saying a privatisation train within the 2000s led to nationwide belongings ending up along with his cronies.
In 2006, the Federal Bureau of Investigation raided Abubakar’s dwelling in Maryland, United States for proof associated to his alleged bribing by William Jefferson, a congressman, in alternate for assist with contracts in Nigeria. It stays unclear if something was discovered or if cash did certainly change palms. However three years later, a US court docket handed Jefferson a 13-year sentence over his position within the case.
This January, Abubakar addressed allegations of corruption in opposition to him, saying he was ready to reveal his belongings if compelled by regulation to take action.
“All corrupt practices or corrupt allegations in opposition to me have been investigated on this nation greater than anyone else and nothing was discovered in opposition to me,” he stated in a latest interview.
A closing act
In a rustic the place politicians transfer throughout get together strains often, Abubakar, now again within the PDP, has a historical past with the opposite main contenders.
His former affiliate Bola Tinubu, who nearly ran with him on a joint ticket within the 2007 presidential election in line with WikiLeaks memos, will likely be on the poll for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Each males have been founding fathers of the get together.
Tinubu’s marketing campaign has additionally been beset by corruption allegations, an age-falsifying scandal and resurfacing of paperwork associated to his forfeiture of $460,000 to the US in a 1993 drug trafficking case. However he's nonetheless seen because the candidate to beat.
In the meantime, a number of polls are projecting the Labour Occasion’s Peter Obi, former governor of Anambra within the southeast, whom Abubakar chosen as working mate in 2019 and who nonetheless refers to him as “my elder brother”, because the tentative winner of the election.
There's additionally Rabiu Kwankwaso, who's working on the platform of the newly-formed New Nigeria Individuals’s Occasion (NNDP) and has emerged as a wildcard within the presidential contest. Within the Nineties, he and Abubakar have been a part of the Individuals’s Democratic Motion (PDM), a political caucus.
However Abubakar, who is usually referred to by his first identify, additionally has to take care of realigning forces in Nigeria’s political institution.
In August 2018, Obasanjo who beforehand linked his former deputy to the misappropriation of a $20m fund whereas in workplace, had famously quipped, “If I help Atiku for something, God won't forgive me.”
Two months later, the 2 males reconciled. Obasanjo endorsed Abubakar who, nevertheless, misplaced the vote in 2019 to Buhari. This time, Obasanjo has shifted allegiance, endorsing Obi as a substitute.
Analysts additionally say the previous vp has walked a tightrope for many years, making an attempt to maintain his northern base but additionally win followers elsewhere. Consequently, the comparatively extra progressive south sees him as a liberal northerner however the extra conservative north has disliked him for a similar cause.
Abubakar was by no means seen as “an thrilling or galvanising power” and infrequently got here up in opposition to formidable, principally northern candidates, together with Buhari who just isn't on the poll this time, Effiong stated.
The scenario could also be altering.
Abubakar has been positioning himself because the “candidate of the north” in latest rallies within the area, Idayat Hassan, director of Abuja-based assume tank CDD, advised Al Jazeera.
“Atiku has been making an attempt to construct bridges … his marketing campaign is starting to realize foreign money, notably in northwest Nigeria which is the area you actually must win, to win this election,” she stated.
The area is probably the most populous of Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, accounting for nearly 1 / 4 of the nation’s 96.2 million registered voters.
The PDP has nevertheless misplaced its place because the de facto opposition get together in components of the south and north, because the Labour Occasion and NNPP ranks swell with supporters.
Throughout the PDP, there are fissures; as an example, the G5 – a bunch of governors throughout the south – have pledged to again different candidates. Their said criticism is that a northerner didn't get the ticket in accordance with an unwritten rule in Nigeria; the presidency is normally rotated between the predominantly Christian south and the majority-Muslim north in a nation nearly break up evenly between each religions.
Abubakar and Buhari are each Muslim from the north and members of the Fulani ethnic group.
Abubakar named one other PDP governor, Delta’s Ifeanyi Okowa, as his working mate, a Christian, may amass votes in his state and elsewhere within the south other than Tinubu’s stronghold – the southwest.
However some inside the political panorama and enterprise neighborhood see him because the candidate with the widest nationwide unfold of followers and a safer wager for the institution than Obi along with his radical cost-cutting proposals, the lesser-known Kwankwaso or the ailing Tinubu, 70.
“He's the likeliest of the highest contenders to get the constitutionally required 25 % of votes in two-thirds of the Nigerian states whereas not profitable the outright majority,” stated SBM Intelligence, in a analysis observe. “This will likely work in his favour within the very occasion of a run-off, however we don't assume he can take victory within the first spherical of the vote.”
Ought to a run-off occur, supporters of Obi and Kwankwaso may see Abubakar because the lesser of two evils if their candidates don't proceed to the second spherical, analysts say.
This will likely certainly be the ultimate likelihood for him to maneuver from supporting forged to guide character however the scenario stays tough.
“He’s working on the ticket of the primary opposition get together in an election the place the ruling get together is in a traditionally weak place with a nominee who just isn't very well-liked outdoors his dwelling area,” Effiong stated. “However for the historic rise of a reputable third-party candidate, this might in all probability be his election to lose.”
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