Motion Community faculty soccer handicapper Taylor McGrath steps in for Thomas Casale.
BAYLOR (+2.5) over Tcu
It has been an unbelievable run for TCU, which has received 9 consecutive big-time matchups. Nevertheless it’s time for a letdown sport, and this can be a very powerful spot for TCU to beat.
The final time these two groups performed, in November 2021, TCU knocked off Baylor (which was 7-1) in Fort Price to finish the Bears’ title hopes. Saturday, Baylor will host TCU with the Horned Frogs’ Faculty Soccer Playoff hopes on the road. On Senior Day, no much less. Speak about motivation.
The sport additionally will likely be a strong schematic matchup for Baylor. The Bears are good at stopping explosive run performs, which is TCU’s bread and butter. Plus, Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen shredded an identical defensive scheme when he threw for 3 touchdowns in opposition to Iowa State’s 3-3-5 stack protection.
Should you’re nonetheless not satisfied, take a look at Baylor head coach Dave Aranda’s observe file. Aranda is 5-0 in opposition to the unfold as an underdog in opposition to groups ranked within the top-15, which incorporates 4 straight outright victories, per Guess Labs.
Navy (+15.5) over UCF
It’s onerous to cowl massive spreads in opposition to service academies. The triple-option assault drains the clock so shortly that it leaves little time for factors. Per Guess Labs, Air Power, Military and Navy are a mixed 41-22-2 in opposition to the unfold as underdogs of 14 factors or extra since 2005.
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Navy matches up with UCF completely. UCF quarterback John Rhys-Plumlee leads a deadly run-pass possibility assault that has crushed opposing defenses. A group can, nonetheless, stifle UCF’s assault if it stops the run. And the Midshipmen are ready to take action, given they rank ninth nationally in yards per rush allowed and third in Soccer Outsiders’ Defensive Line Yards metric.
In the meantime, Navy will run the clock with its triple-option assault and simply hold the sport inside three scores. It’s value noting that Navy is 5-0 in opposition to the unfold on the street this season, whereas UCF is in a probably sleepy spot after an emotional win over Tulane.
Colorado State (+21.5) over AIR FORCE
Conversely, it’s powerful for service academies to cowl massive spreads. Per Guess Labs, the three service academy colleges are a mixed 20-30-2 in opposition to the unfold as favorites of 21 or extra factors.
Once more, the triple-option assault drains the clock, leaving little time for scoring factors. As well as, Air Power is taking part in on the slowest tempo within the nation through seconds per play (32).
Colorado State is a horrific soccer group. The Rams, nonetheless, have put collectively their three greatest offensive performances within the final 4 weeks, peaking in a 468-yard effort in opposition to San Jose State in Week 9.
Whereas Colorado State’s go protection has been its downfall this season, its rush protection has been common, because the Rams are 54th in Anticipated Factors Added per rush play allowed.
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Given the sport script and the matchup, it needs to be unattainable for Colorado State to fall behind by greater than three touchdowns, and I’m keen to make that guess.
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