After cruising by means of the World Cup to date in Group B with seven factors and a +7 purpose differential, England now begins the knockout rounds with a match in opposition to Senegal, who completed second in Group A behind the Netherlands.
The Three Lions are a -500 favourite to advance and -190 to win in 90 minutes. Does that value flatter England an excessive amount of?
Beneath we preview the World Cup Spherical of 16 matchup between England and Senegal starting at 2 p.m. ET on Fox Sports activities 1.
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England vs. Senegal prediction
On the floor, England’s ends in the group stage look terrific. The Three Lions outscored their opposition, 9-2, and posted a +2.9 anticipated purpose differential in three matches in opposition to Iran, the USA and Wales. However in case you look a bit of deeper, you’ll discover that every one of that injury got here in opposition to Iran and Wales, two groups that favor to take a seat deep and defend in low blocks as a result of they’re weak within the midfield.
England defeated Iran, 6-2, and dominated Wales, 3-0, however in opposition to the People, the Three Lions struggled in a 0-0 draw. You may make a salient argument that the USMNT was the higher facet in that matchup, even when the anticipated objectives, which ended 0.8 to 0.6 in favor of England, steered it was a coin flip.
The important thing to success for the People was within the midfield, the place they have been capable of compete with England’s pivot of Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham. Senegal gained’t have dynamic central midfielder Idrisse Gana Gueye, however the Lions of Teranga ought to supply much more competitors in the course of the sector than Iran and Canada did. Nampalys Mendy, Pathe Ciss and Papa Gueye aren’t on the identical stage as Rice and Bellingham, however they need to be capable of put up extra of a struggle than what England noticed of their two victories.
Moreover, there are some issues about how England will play this match from a stylistic standpoint. Whereas the Three Lions took the handbrake off in opposition to Iran and Wales, they have been extra tepid in opposition to the USMNT. That’s nothing new for this staff, as Gareth Southgate prefers to play issues nearer to the vest in opposition to extra harmful opposition, particularly when the stakes are excessive.
The principle criticism of Southgate throughout his tenure is that, regardless of having extra expertise than nearly each staff on the planet, his conservative strategy permits different groups to stay round in opposition to England and punish them in the event that they catch a break or the Three Lions aren’t fairly on the races.
Even with out Gueye and Sadio Mane, this Senegal facet is athletic, fast and proficient. They’re in a totally totally different tier in comparison with Iran and Wales, and may trigger England a number of the identical issues that that they had in a 0-0 end result in opposition to the USMNT.
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England can actually come out and impose their will in opposition to a less-talented Senegal facet, however there are some indicators pointing to a reasonably shut tilt on Sunday. And when you think about that Wales, which is a a lot worse staff than Senegal, closed round this value of their match in opposition to England, you can also make a good case that the Lions of Teranga are undervalued primarily based on the spot right here. No person expects England to get bounced within the Spherical of 16 by Senegal and that's impacting how this recreation is being priced.
It’s a wager you lose extra typically than you win, however Senegal are value a sprinkle on the three-way moneyline on Sunday.
England vs. Senegal decide
Senegal three-way moneyline +650 (FanDuel)
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